[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111130-en":3,"doc-seo-111130-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111130,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","RWANDA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - Moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress","Rwanda’s updated joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis indicates a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. Under the baseline scenario and most shocks, key present value indicators for external debt remain below thresholds, though the PV debt-to-GDP ratio breaches them under extreme shocks and historical scenarios, while the PV of overall PPG debt breaches under the most severe case. The analysis is consistent with strong debt-carrying capacity, but highlights risks including reduced concessional financing, tighter U.S. monetary conditions, exchange-rate appreciation, and terms-of-trade and climate shocks. Financing assumptions incorporate concessional IDA20 borrowing, rising domestic financing, a 14-month SCF, emergency World Bank support, and rephased RSF disbursements.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Catherine Pattillo and Martin Čihák (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| RWANDA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe updated Bank/Fund debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Rwanda continues to indicate a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. The current debt-carrying capacity is consistent with a classification of ‘strong’.2 The PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio and of external debt-to-export ratio remain below their indicative thresholds under the baseline scenario and several shock scenarios, though the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio breaches the threshold under the most extreme shock scenario and the historical scenario. The PV of overall PPG debt temporarily breaches the threshold under the most severe scenario. The baseline scenario is based on the macroeconomic projections presented in the accompanying staff report for the SCF request and PCI/RSF second review. Rwanda’s financing strategy assumes continued support from bilateral and multilateral development partners over the medium term, with highly concessional loans for new external borrowing under IDA20 and an increasing share of domestic financing in the long term. Compared to the previous assessment, this DSA incorporates a 14-month SCF with an access level of 125 percent of quota (SDR 200.25 million), partners over the medium term, with highly concessional loans for new external borrowing under IDA20 and an increasing share of domestic financing in the long term. Compared to the previous assessment, this DSA incorporates a 14-month SCF with an access level of 125 percent of quota (SDR 200.25 million), emergency financing from the World Bank totaling US$ 85 million, and rephased RSF disbursements. Key risks include a decline in concessional financing, U.S. monetary policy tightening and U.S. dollar appreciation, and terms-of-trade shocks. Rwanda remains susceptible to adverse market conditions and climate shocks.  \n1 This debt sustainability analysis was conducted using the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) that was approved in 2017. The fiscal year for Rwanda is from July to June; however, this DSA is prepared on a calendar year basis.  \n2 Rwanda has a debt carrying capacity indicator score of 3.18. This implies a classification of strong debt carrying capacity, which is the same classification as under the previous DSA.  \n1. Rwanda’s public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 33.1 percentage points over the last decade, driven by loans to meet the development needs envisaged in the National Strategy for Transformation (NST), but also to respond to the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The development needs are supported by a comprehensive public investment strategy, including three large projects to support trade and tourism through a series of public-private partnerships and external guarantees outside the budgetary central government (construction of the Kigali Convention Center completed in 2016, the expansion of the national airline RwandAir, and the ongoing construction of the Bugesera airport) . These developments contributed to an increase in PPG external debt by 21.8 percentage points in the five years preceding the COVID-19 shock. At the same time, the increase in the fiscal deficit due to revenue shortfalls and a scaling up in spending to address the COVID- 19 crisis led to a sharp debt increase by an additional 12.1 percentage points in 2020, followed by 1.9 percentage points decline in 2021. As a result, external PPG debt has risen from","cbCaimf1GoFOL0Al","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimf1GoFOL0Al","pdf",2233380,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment summary\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n## Judgment and granularity in risk rating\n# Debt dynamics and indicators\n## Debt-carrying capacity classification\n## Present value breaches under shocks\n## Public and PPG debt evolution\n# Financing strategy and key updates\n## Medium-term financing assumptions\n## SCF, emergency financing, and rephased RSF\n## Main risks considered","[{\"question\":\"What is Rwanda’s risk level for external debt distress and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall debt distress as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds under severe scenarios?\",\"answer\":\"The PV of the external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches thresholds under the most extreme shock and historical scenarios, and the PV of overall PPG debt temporarily breaches under the most severe scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"What changes are included compared with the previous debt sustainability assessment?\",\"answer\":\"The update incorporates a 14-month SCF (125 percent of quota), emergency financing from the World Bank totaling US$85 million, and rephased RSF disbursements, alongside ongoing concessional external borrowing under IDA20 and a rising share of domestic financing.\"}]",1784488743,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"rwanda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-external-and-overall-public-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-external-and-overall-public-debt-distress/111130/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Rwanda’s risk level for external debt distress and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall debt distress as moderate.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which debt indicators breach their thresholds under severe scenarios?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The PV of the external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches thresholds under the most extreme shock and historical scenarios, and the PV of overall PPG debt temporarily breaches under the most severe scenario.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What changes are included compared with the previous debt sustainability assessment?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The update incorporates a 14-month SCF (125 percent of quota), emergency financing from the World Bank totaling US$85 million, and rephased RSF disbursements, alongside ongoing concessional external borrowing under IDA20 and a rising share of domestic 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