[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111034-en":3,"doc-seo-111034-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111034,7971461741311,"Ophelia","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/74000253aff267980c6?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779345379180704826",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Assessment","Rwanda’s Joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability assessment finds a moderate risk of external debt distress and overall public debt distress. Current debt-carrying capacity aligns with a strong classification, supported by a baseline reflecting macroeconomic projections from the 5th PCI review, stronger growth rebound, and fiscal consolidation after the pandemic. Debt indicators and stress tests show moderated liquidity risks but elevated solvency risks, with limited buffers against external and growth shocks.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nMarcello Estevão and Asad Alam (IDA), and Catherine Pattillo and Delia Velculescu (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staffs of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| RWANDA\u003Cbr>JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe updates to the Bank/Fund assessment of Rwanda’s debt sustainability analysis indicate a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. The current debt-carrying capacity is consistent with a classification of ‘strong’. The baseline scenario is based on the macroeconomic projections under the 5th PCI review, assuming a stronger growth rebound and larger fiscal deficit than was expected in the December 2020 DSA, followed by an ambitious post-pandemic medium-term fiscal consolidation path underpinned by policies under the PCI. Compared to the 4th PCI review (July 2021 update), the baseline incorporates the one-off use of a significant portion of the recent SDR allocation in FY2021/22 and Eurobond issuance in August 2021 to buyback an 85 percent of the 2013 Eurobonds with bullet payment in 2023, which help to smooth out the debt service profile. The debt indicators and stress tests suggest that while liquidity risks have been moderated, solvency risks remain elevated, with limited buffers to cushion external and growth shocks. The country remains susceptible to adverse market conditions, with the risk mitigated by adequate reserves and access to external official financing at concessional terms. The authorities are encouraged to further strengthen their debt management capacity to mitigate heightened risks in the context of the uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 crisis and implement the fiscal consolidation strategy as envisaged under the PCI , supported by credible measures to bring debt to lower  \nlevels with sufficient buffers to absorb shocks. Strengthening the identification, assessment, and management of fiscal risks, also one of the pillars under the PCI, is essential to mitigate debt surprises.  \n1. Rwanda’s public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 33 percentage points of GDP over the last 6 years, driven by borrowing to meet the development needs envisaged in the National Strategy for Transformation (NST), but also from the robust COVID-19 response. The development needs are supported by a long-planned comprehensive public investment strategy, including three large projects to support trade and tourism through a series of public-private partnerships (PPPs) and external guarantees outside the budgetary central government. The three large projects include the construction of the Kigali Convention Center (KCC), completed in 2016, the expansion of the national airline, RwandAir, that is now completed, and the construction of a new airport in the Bugesera district of eastern Rwanda. These developments contributed to PPG external debt to increase by 21.7 percentage point in the five years preceding the COVID crisis. At the same time, the increase in the fiscal deficit due to revenue shortfalls and a scaling up in spending to address the COVID-19 crisis led to sharp debt increase in 2020 by an additional 11.3 percentage point. As a result, external PPG debt has risen from 22.6 percent of GDP in 2014 to 55.6 percent in 2020 (Text Figure 1) . It continues to be dominated by multilateral lending on concessional terms (Text Table 1, Text Figure 2), resulting in a present value (PV) of external PPG debtto-GDP ratio of 33.6 percent in 2020. Total PPG debt stood at 71.3 percent of GDP in 2020, which is higher than the 2020 DSA projections (estimated at 65.9 percent of GDP) due to lower-than-expected GDP growth anda higher fiscal d","cbCaib9JKnkElOOW","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaib9JKnkElOOW","pdf",1382318,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress\n## External Debt Distress Assessment\n## Overall Public Debt Distress\n## Baseline Scenario and Assumptions\n## Debt Indicators and Stress Tests\n## Drivers of Debt Dynamics","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk level for Rwanda’s external debt distress and overall public debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment rates both external debt distress and overall public debt distress as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the baseline scenario assume in Rwanda’s debt sustainability analysis?\",\"answer\":\"It is built on macroeconomic projections from the 5th PCI review, assuming a stronger growth rebound and a larger fiscal deficit than in the December 2020 DSA, followed by an ambitious post-pandemic medium-term fiscal consolidation path supported by PCI policies.\"},{\"question\":\"How do the stress tests describe liquidity versus solvency risks?\",\"answer\":\"Liquidity risks have been moderated, while solvency risks remain elevated, with limited buffers to cushion external and growth shocks.\"}]",1784488241,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"rwanda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/111034/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the assessed risk level for Rwanda’s external debt distress and overall public debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The assessment rates both external debt distress and overall public debt distress as moderate.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What does the baseline scenario assume in Rwanda’s debt sustainability analysis?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"It is built on macroeconomic projections from the 5th PCI review, assuming a stronger growth rebound and a larger fiscal deficit than in the December 2020 DSA, followed by an ambitious post-pandemic medium-term fiscal consolidation path supported by PCI policies.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How do the stress tests describe liquidity versus solvency risks?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Liquidity risks have been moderated, while solvency risks remain elevated, with limited buffers to cushion external and growth 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