[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110350-en":3,"doc-seo-110350-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110350,549758252649,"Ivy","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819",8,"Research & Report","Rwanda - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis for Rwanda concludes a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, while the country’s debt-carrying capacity remains consistent with a “strong” classification. Baseline projections reflect macroeconomic assumptions tied to policy discussions for a new PCI and RSF request, including spillovers from the Ukraine war. Despite stress tests indicating lower mechanical risks, high uncertainty from weaker concessional financing prospects, US monetary tightening and dollar appreciation, and terms-of-trade shocks justifies maintaining moderate risk. The assessment highlights exposure to adverse market and climate shocks, and encourages fiscal consolidation, use of concessional financing (including RSF), reserve buffer buildup, and strengthened debt management capacity.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Catherine Pattillo and Eugenio Cerutti (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| RWANDA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nThe updates to the Bank/Fund assessment of Rwanda’s debt sustainability analysis indicate a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress. The current debt-carrying capacity is consistent with a classification of ‘strong’.2 The baseline scenario is based on the macroeconomic projections in the accompanying Staff Report for discussions ofa new PCI and RSF request, reflecting the negative impact of the spillovers from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rwanda’s financing strategy assumes continued support from bilateral and multilateral development partners over the medium term, with highly concessional loans for new external borrowing under IDA 20 and an increasing share of domestic financing in the long term. The DSA also incorporates a 36-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)-supported program with proposed access level of 150 percent of quota (SDR 240.3 million) . While the debt indicators and standard stress tests mechanically classify debt sustainability risks as low, in staff’s judgement, they don’t fully capture the highly uncertain and difficult current external environment for Rwanda affecting the risks of declining concessional financing, U.S. monetary policy tightening and U.S. dollar appreciation, and terms-of-trade shocks, which warrants maintaining moderate risk of debt distress. The country also remains susceptible to adverse market conditions and climate shocks. The authorities are encouraged to implement the ambitious fiscal consolidation strategy envisaged under the new PCI, use concessional external financing (including the RSF) in place of the more expensive domestic financing to increase international reserve buffers, and further strengthen their debt management capacity to mitigate heightened uncertainty and risks, including those climate-related, surrounding the current environment.  \n1 This debt sustainability analysis was conducted using the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) that was approved in 2017. The fiscal year for Rwanda is from July to June; however, this DSA is prepared on a calendar year basis.  \n2 Rwanda’s has a debt carrying capacity indicator score of 3.16 based on the October 2022 WEO and the World Bank’s 2021 CPIA data. This implies a classification of strong debt carrying capacity, which is the same classification as under the previous DSA.  \n1. Rwanda’s public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 31.3 percentage points over the last 7 years, driven by loans to meet the development needs envisaged in the National Strategy for Transformation (NST), but also to respond to the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The development needs are supported by a long-planned comprehensive public investment strategy, including three large projects to support trade and tourism through a series of publicprivate partnerships and external guarantees outside the budgetary central government (construction of the Kigali Convention Center completed in 2016, the expansion of the national airline RwandAir, and the ongoing construction of the Bugesera airport) . These developments contributed to an increase in PPG external debt by 21.1 percentage points in the five years preceding the COVID-19 shock. At the same time, the increase in the fiscal deficit due to revenue shortfalls and a scaling up in spending to address the COVID-19 crisis led to sharp debt increase by an additional 12.1 per","cbCaidqcGH4XqIA5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidqcGH4XqIA5","pdf",776821,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment Summary\n## External Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Public Debt Distress Risk\n# Baseline Assumptions and Financing Strategy\n## Impact of Ukraine Spillovers\n## IDA 20 and Concessional Borrowing\n## RSF Program and Access\n# Rationale for Maintaining Moderate Risk\n## Limitations of Mechanical Stress Tests\n## Uncertain External Environment\n# Financing, Debt Dynamics, and Instruments\n## Public Investment Strategy and PPG Debt Growth\n## Eurobond Issuance and Liquidity Management\n# Debt Stock and Debt Service Overview\n## External and Multilateral Composition\n## Bilateral, Bonds, and Commercial Creditors","[{\"question\":\"What does the Rwanda Joint Bank-Fund DSA conclude about debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes a moderate risk of both external and overall public debt distress, with granularity indicating a sustainable rating under the risk framework.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the risk maintained as moderate despite stress tests classifying risks as low?\",\"answer\":\"The staff judgment notes that mechanical stress tests do not fully capture Rwanda’s highly uncertain and difficult external environment, including declining concessional financing risks, US policy tightening and dollar appreciation, and terms-of-trade shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"What actions are encouraged to mitigate elevated uncertainty and debt risks?\",\"answer\":\"The authorities are encouraged to implement the fiscal consolidation strategy under the new PCI, rely more on concessional external financing (including RSF) to build international reserve buffers, and further strengthen debt management capacity, including for climate-related risks.\"}]",1784485023,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"rwanda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/rwanda-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/110350/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What does the Rwanda Joint Bank-Fund DSA conclude about debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis concludes a moderate risk of both external and overall public debt distress, with granularity indicating a sustainable rating under the risk framework.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why is the risk maintained as moderate despite stress tests classifying risks as low?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The staff judgment notes that mechanical stress tests do not fully capture Rwanda’s highly uncertain and difficult external environment, including declining concessional financing risks, US policy tightening and dollar appreciation, and terms-of-trade shocks.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What actions are encouraged to mitigate elevated uncertainty and debt risks?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The authorities are encouraged to implement the fiscal consolidation strategy under the new PCI, rely more on concessional external financing (including RSF) to build international reserve buffers, and further strengthen debt management capacity, including for climate-related risks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & 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