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upturns?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"They expect slower renewed growth because longer-run structural adjustments are taking place across many industries, limiting how quickly improvements can translate into broad expansion.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"What is the Roundtable’s stance on fiscal or monetary policy actions?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"Support for more expansive actions is tempered, with policymakers advised to tread cautiously so efforts do not interfere with the necessary longer-term realignment.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"How does the banking industry’s situation contribute to the economic outlook?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"Panelists cite shifts away from traditional banking toward nonbank and global competition, leading to falling market share, more problem loans, and increased bank merges or failures, even as downsizing 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this political season,there are as manyprescriptions being writen for the econ-omy as there are would-be healers.Though the diagnosticians agree that thepatient will certainly recover,they aredivided on just how aggressively treat-ment should proceed.  \nParticipants in the latest meeting of theFourth District Economists'Round-table,held January 24 at the FederalReserve Bank of Cleveland,did not givethe economy a clean bill of health,buttheir prognosis for the next year and ahalf is encouraging.Consequently,sup-port for more expansive fiscal or mon-etary policy actions was tempered.  \nAll 24 panelists agree that the recoveryis likely to be more subdued than otherpostwar upturns because of longer-runadjustments taking place in many of thenation's industries,particularly banking,retailing,computer equipment,and autosAs a result,policymakers are advisedto tread cautiously in attempting to restorethe nation's economic health,lest theirefforts interfere with this necessarylonger-term realignment.  \n# ■ The Economic Overview\n\nA spate of less-than-encouraging eco-nomic indicators in recent months hasreinforced the view of those who thinkthat the economy has not yet begun torise from its sickbed.Roundtable mem-bers acknowledged the recent slippage  \n# Roundtable's R for the Economy:First,Do No Harm\n\nby scaling down their growth rates ofreal gross domestic product(GDP)tonear zero this quarter after a meager 0.3percent rise in 1991:IVQ(see figure 1).  \nThe group's forecast for the rest of 1992is brighter.A step-up in growth of realGDPis predicted for the second quarter,followed by output and price increasesaveraging an annualized 3 percentthrough mid-1993(see figure 2).Never-theless,the group expects the pace ofrenewed growth to be slow judgedagainst the average of past businessrecoveries.Though some sectors andregions of the country may expandrapidly,others will likely be constrainedby longer-term structural adjustments.The Roundtable focused on a few of theindustries in which this realignment isexpected to persist even after theecon-omy regains its strength.  \n## ■ Where's My Friendly Banker?\n\nBanking underwent major changes inthe 1980s and apparently faces tougherchallenges in the years ahead,accord-ing to one panelist and industry expert.The domestic industry has been losingmarket share to nonbank financial institu-tions,as well as to global competition.Between 1975 and 1990,banks'shareof commercial and industrial loansshrank substantially,from about 71percent of allshort-tem credit issuedto less than 50 percent.Their share ofconsumer loans also fell,as Americans  \nFebruary 15,1992  \nParticipants in the latest meeting of theFourth District Economists'Round-table believe that growth will onceagain be under way by spring,thoughat a subdued rate compared to otherpostwar recoveries.The group attri-butesthis slower pace to longer-termstructural adjustments taking place inmany US.industries-a realignmentthat most panelists believe is beyondthe Federal Reserve's ability to control.Thus,in attempting to remedy theeconomy's woes,policymakers areadvised to tread cautiously,followingthe physicians'oath to “first,do noharm.\"  \ncontinued to tum to a variety of non-bank financial sources.  \nThe industry has become increasingly vul-nerable to changes in the economy.The same panelist reported that a succes-sion of problem loans that began inagriculture and then moved into energyand real estate has sparked significantincreases in the number of nonperform-ing loans and loan charge-offs.As aresult,the number of banks that havehad to merge or to fold has been on therise since the mid-1980s.  \nDespite this downsizing,there are stilltoo many banks and too many bankemployees,according to the econ-omist.Acquisitions and mergers,many of which occurred at the bankholding company level,have neither pro-duced the expected cost reductions noreliminated a significant number of banks.Consequently,efforts to increase effi-cien","cbCaifEXcVGtN2oG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifEXcVGtN2oG","pdf",1061853,"English","# The Economic Overview\n## Roundtable's R for the Economy: First, Do No Harm\n## Where's My Friendly Banker?\n## More to Come\n## Fiscal Policy\n## Automotive Realignment","[{\"question\":\"Why do panelists expect the recovery to be more subdued than past postwar upturns?\",\"answer\":\"They expect slower renewed growth because longer-run structural adjustments are taking place across many industries, limiting how quickly improvements can translate into broad expansion.\"},{\"question\":\"What is the Roundtable’s stance on fiscal or monetary policy actions?\",\"answer\":\"Support for more expansive actions is tempered, with policymakers advised to tread cautiously so efforts do not interfere with the necessary longer-term realignment.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the banking industry’s situation contribute to the economic outlook?\",\"answer\":\"Panelists cite shifts away from traditional banking toward nonbank and global competition, leading to falling market share, more problem loans, and increased bank merges or failures, even as downsizing continues.\"}]","Roundtable's R for the Economy: First, Do No Harm | PDF",1789967650,13]