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A cohort of 650 diagnosed HZ patients admitted to Wuhan Fourth Hospital between January 2018 and June 2025 was used to identify PHN risk factors and build a nomogram for early identification and prevention. Logistic regression identified age, HZ course, specific-site herpes, VAS score, skin-damage severity, and temperature rise >1°C. The nomogram showed strong discrimination (ROC AUC 0.943 training, 0.900 validation) and useful calibration and decision-curve performance.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":35,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/healthcare/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/risk-factors-and-nomogram-based-prediction-of-the-risk-of-postherpetic-neuralgia-in-patients-with-herpes-zoster/420339/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/risk-factors-and-nomogram-based-prediction-of-the-risk-of-postherpetic-neuralgia-in-patients-with-herpes-zoster/420339.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"nayy☆","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-29","2026-09-28",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",11,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What is the main objective of this study?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"To explore risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) in patients with herpes zoster (HZ) and to construct a nomogram-based predictive model for early identification and prevention of PHN.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How was the nomogram model developed and validated?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"The model was constructed using the R4.2.1 software with the “rms” package, using a training set and internal validation through calibration curves and decision-curve assessment; it was also externally validated using a separate validation set.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"Which factors were identified as independent risk factors for PHN?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"Independent risk factors included age, the course of HZ, herpes in specific areas (special sites), VAS score, severity of skin damage, and temperature rise greater than 1°C.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},420339,1790943074,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":34,"category_name":35,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":105,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},962090893153,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_9964176cb1d06d4a9deccf72a44ae3dc","Journal of Pain Research  \n Open Access Full Text Article  \nORIGINAL RESEARCH  \nRisk Factors and Nomogram-Based Prediction of the Risk of Postherpetic Neuralgia in Patients with Herpes Zoster  \nBocheng Peng 1 , Rui Min2  \n1Department of Pain, Wuhan Fourth Hospital, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Geriatrics, Wuhan Fourth Hospital, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China  \nCorrespondence: Rui Min, Department of Geriatrics, Wuhan Fourth Hospital, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China, [Email mminrrui@163.com](Email mminrrui@163.com)  \n\n| Objective: Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is considered as the most common complication of herpes zoster, and its incidence is increasing. The aim of this study was to explore the risk factors of postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) (ICD-10: B02.29) and to construct a predictive line graph model for early identification and prevention of PHN.\u003Cbr>Methods: In this study, we focused on a cohort of 650 patients who had been diagnosed with herpes zoster (HZ)(ICD-10: B02) and subsequently admitted to Wuhan Fourth Hospital over a span of seven years, specifically from January 2018 to June 2025. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training set (n=458) and a validation set (n=192), with an average age of 57.31±12.64 years in both groups. The Nomogram model, designed to predict the elevated risk of PHN in individuals with HZ was constructed through the R4.2.1 software “rms” package. The nomogram model’s predictive performance was evaluated using the decision curve, while the calibration curve was utilized for internal validation. The model was also externally validated using a validation set of data. Results: The logistic regression analysis revealed that independent risk factors for PHN included age, the course of HZ, herpes in specific areas, VAS score, severity of skin damage, and temperature rising >1°C. The proposed Nomogram model, developed with the previously mentioned indicators, exhibits ROC curve area values of 0.943 for the training set and 0.900 for the validation set. The correction curve suggests that the model maintains high accuracy. Furthermore, the DCA outcomes reveal that the model possesses enhanced clinical utility at risk thresholds ranging from 0 to 0.99 for the training data and from 0.04 to 0.89 for the validation data. Conclusion: Our study confirms that age, the course of herpes zoster, herpes in special sites, VAS score, the severity of skin lesions, and a temperature increase of >1°C are independent risk factors for the occurrence of Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) . The nomogram model established based on these six indicators demonstrates good developmental potential and exhibits high discriminative predictive performance for Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN)in patients with herpes zoster.\u003Cbr>Keywords: postherpetic neuralgia, nomogram model, prediction, risk factors, herpes zoster |\n| --- |\n| Introduction\u003Cbr>Herpes zoster (HZ) is an acute viral infectious disease that arises from the varicella zoster virus (VZV) . The initial infection of the varicella-zoster virus is more commonly acquired during childhood and can lead to either varicella ora latent infection. Latent in the body, when the immune system is weakened or due to aging, the virus may become reactivated, leading to the occurrence of herpes zoster.1 The aging population has led to a rise in the occurrence of herpes zoster, which has become a global public health concern. A comprehensive study carried out by Marra et al has shown a notable increase in the incidence of herpes zoster in Canada over a defined period. Specifically, the rates rose from 3.2 cases per 1000 person-years in 1997 to 4.5 cases per 1000 person-years by the year 20122 In China, it was determined that the rates of HZ and PHN were 7.7% and 2.3%, respectively. Additionally, within the population of individuals diagnosed with HZ, the prevalence of PHN was found to be 29 . 8%,3 Overall, it was observed that 20–30% of people experience HZ at some point ","cbCaikGfgnS0uJTs","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikGfgnS0uJTs","pdf",3894460,"English","# Objective\n# Methods\n## Study design and population\n## Nomogram construction and validation\n# Results\n# Conclusion\n# Introduction\n## Herpes zoster background and epidemiology\n## Definition and burden of PHN\n## Current treatments and unmet need","[{\"question\":\"What is the main objective of this study?\",\"answer\":\"To explore risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) in patients with herpes zoster (HZ) and to construct a nomogram-based predictive model for early identification and prevention of PHN.\"},{\"question\":\"How was the nomogram model developed and validated?\",\"answer\":\"The model was constructed using the R4.2.1 software with the “rms” package, using a training set and internal validation through calibration curves and decision-curve assessment; it was also externally validated using a separate validation set.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors were identified as independent risk factors for PHN?\",\"answer\":\"Independent risk factors included age, the course of HZ, herpes in specific areas (special sites), VAS score, severity of skin damage, and temperature rise greater than 1°C.\"}]","Risk Factors and Nomogram-Based Prediction of the Risk of Postherpetic Neuralgia in Patients with Herpes Zoster | PDF",1790620511,28]