[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-112255-en":3,"doc-seo-112255-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},112255,1649267921044,"Ava Thompson","https://us-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1800007509477c92dfb?_k=1782875107921204101",8,"Research & Report","Review of the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries - Background Note","This background note prepared by IMF and World Bank staff presents proposed enhancements to the IMF–World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF). The proposals aim to improve predictive power, transparency, and policy relevance while maintaining continuity and tractability as an early-warning tool for debt stress and unsustainable debt. Key reforms include a revamped risk architecture, new and updated regression models, strengthened domestic debt diagnostics, additional long-term and auxiliary judgment modules, enhanced realism tools, and a debt data confidence flag to address data gaps and reliability.","Public Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREVIEW OF THE BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY FRAMEWORK FOR LOW INCOME COUNTRIES:  \nBACKGROUND NOTE  \nJune 2, 2026  \nPrepared by the staffs of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund  \nApproved by Manuela Francisco (WB) and Guillaume Chabert (IMF)  \nOVERVIEW  \nThis background note prepared by staffs of the IMF and WB outlines proposed enhancements to the IMF–World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC-DSF) to ensure it remains fit for purpose and future-proof in the face of heightened debt vulnerabilities, greater heterogeneity across LICs, and analytical advances since the 2017 Review. The proposals⎯which have been guided by regular engagements with the IMF and WB Boards and benefitted from extensive engagement with external stakeholders⎯aim to enhance the framework’s predictive power, transparency, and policy relevance, while preserving continuity, tractability, and its role as an early-warning tool for debt stress and unsustainable debt.  \nThe following key enhancements are being considered:  \n• Revamped and more comprehensive risk architecture. The proposed framework distinguishes more clearly between the risks of external and overall public debt stress and the risk of unsustainable public debt.  \n• New models for the risk of overall public debt stress and unsustainability, together with an updated model of the risk of external public debt stress. The mechanical risk signals for external and overall public debt stress would continue to be derived from debt-carrying capacity (DCC)-specific thresholds for debt burden indicators, while the mechanical risk signal for public debt unsustainability would be country-specific. As part of the model refinements, one external debt-burden indicator would be dropped (PV of debt-to-exports), and new overall public debt-burden indicators would be added (GFN-to-GDP; interest-to-total revenues excluding grants), notably to more explicitly capture overall liquidity pressures.  \n• Strengthened analysis of domestic debt risks and development of auxiliary modules to underpin the structured application of judgment in the final risk assessments:  \n• A new domestic debt risk module would provide solvency and liquidity diagnostics, as well as realism checks for the consistency of the domestic public borrowing plan with maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability. This qualitative risk analysis would complement and reinforce the strong predictive power of the new overall public debt stress model.  \n• A new long-term module would provide a complementary tool, applied where relevant, to help assess the public debt stress and sustainability implications of policy and investment decisions associated with development and other long-term challenges, including those stemming from climate adaptation.  \n• Additional auxiliary modules to anchor the use of judgment in the final assessments of the risks of public debt stress and external public debt stress, and public debt sustainability. The public debt stress and sustainability assessments would incorporate information from auxiliary indicators, including information on fiscal and debt-burden pressures in the near-to-medium term, such as the distance of the primary deficit from its debt stabilizing level.  \n• Greater granularity of the rating of the risks of debt stress to enhance their policy relevance. Staffs envisage that the Moderate-Risk rating would continue to be differentiated based on the availability of fiscal space, though this would now be anchored in overall public debt-burden indicators. Staffs would propose introducing a new granularity of the “High Risk”rating across time horizons and types of risk.  \n• Enhanced realism tools and recalibrated stress tests. Forecast accuracy would be promoted by an expanded realism toolkit, while recalibrated standardized, tailored, an","cbCainRXYCq0uogL","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainRXYCq0uogL","pdf",1383320,1,37,"English","en",105,"# Overview\n## Key enhancements being considered\n## Framework fit and comparative materials","[{\"question\":\"What is the purpose of this background note on the LIC-DSF?\",\"answer\":\"It outlines proposed enhancements to keep the LIC-DSF fit for purpose by improving predictive power, transparency, and policy relevance for debt stress and unsustainable debt early warnings.\"},{\"question\":\"What changes are proposed for the framework’s risk architecture and models?\",\"answer\":\"The proposals distinguish more clearly between external and overall public debt stress and unsustainable public debt, supported by new regression models and an updated external stress model with revised debt-burden indicators.\"},{\"question\":\"How will domestic debt risks and long-term policy impacts be analyzed?\",\"answer\":\"A new domestic debt risk module would provide solvency and liquidity diagnostics plus realism checks for borrowing plans, while a long-term module would assess sustainability implications of policy and investment decisions, including climate adaptation-related challenges.\"}]",1784493958,93,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"review-of-the-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-framework-for-low-income-countries-background-note","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/review-of-the-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-framework-for-low-income-countries-background-note/112255/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the purpose of this background note on the LIC-DSF?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"It outlines proposed enhancements to keep the LIC-DSF fit for purpose by improving predictive power, transparency, and policy relevance for debt stress and unsustainable debt early warnings.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What changes are proposed for the framework’s risk architecture and models?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The proposals distinguish more clearly between external and overall public debt stress and unsustainable public debt, supported by new regression models and an updated external stress model with revised debt-burden indicators.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How will domestic debt risks and long-term policy impacts be analyzed?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"A new domestic debt risk module would provide solvency and liquidity diagnostics plus realism checks for borrowing plans, while a long-term module would assess sustainability implications of policy and investment decisions, including climate adaptation-related challenges.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]