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It explains how the Department of Basic Education monitors demand, supply, and utilization of educators through human resource planning, citing trends affected by learner growth, LER and class size policy, replacement demand from attrition, and COVID-19 impacts. It supports claims with audited graduate data, unemployment in educator databases, and attrition averages, concluding that decisions are monitored weekly to ensure sustainability and quality.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/responding-to-prof-jonathan-jansens-article-a-response-with-verified-facts/610466/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/responding-to-prof-jonathan-jansens-article-a-response-with-verified-facts/610466.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Emma Wilson","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-04","2026-10-19",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":29},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"Why does the Department of Basic Education disagree with claims of a teacher supply crisis?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"It states that it tracks educator demand, supply, and utilization through human resource planning and provisioning, including factors affecting demand and replacement demand from attrition. The response presents this monitoring as evidence that a crisis claim is not aligned with tracked trends.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What data does the response cite regarding new teacher graduates and targets?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"It cites the Trends in Teacher Education 2018 Report, stating 28,203 new teachers graduated in 2018 versus a 22,031 target set for 2018 by DHET. It also notes enrollment levels in initial teacher education qualifications across public universities.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How does the response explain teacher attrition and its impact on replacement demand?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"It describes teacher attrition averaging 4.4% over financial years 2015/16–2019/20 and says this remains a key driver of teacher demand. It also provides related age distribution figures using PERSAL data (June 2020).","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},610466,1792378729,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":29,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":81,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":129,"read_time":39},3848291630094,"https://eur-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45","RESPONDING TO Prof. Jonathan Jansen’s Article: As teachers flee or die, anew, even worse education crisis looms.  \nELIJAH MHLANGA  \nThe title of the article by Jonathan Jansen “As teachers flee or die, a new, even worse education crisis looms” is not in touch with the feelings of most teachers in South African schools.  \nIt’s safe to say, Professor Jansen admits in his article that he is talking about something he does not fully comprehend when he says; “The exact scale of the problem is difficult to quantify  ” This is very telling and should have guided the Professor’s opinion piece, however he chose to go further and postulate. While at it he casts doubt on the Department’s credibility without facts. He excuses his ignorance of the facts to a claim that some ‘Senior district officials in one province’ have told him that this is “in part because of the uneven collection of data across the nine provinces and the suspicion that the data collected from the districts might have been sanitised to put a positive spin on things”. This is dinner table gossip and not facts.  \nThe DBE reserves a right to respond with facts to set the record straight and assure the people of South Africa that the department under the leadership of Minister Angie Motshekga and her competent team in the sixth administration have a difficult and challenging situation under control. This response seeks to provide the facts that can be verified by the public and scholar alike, not baseless postulations.  \nFirstly, the Department of Basic Education (DBE) does not agree that the education system is facing a crisis in teacher supply. The DBE tracks trends on factors that affect demand, supply and utilisation of educators as part of the human resource planning and provisioning function. From the demand side the key factors tracked are growth demand factors such as growth in leaner numbers; and the effect of policies relating to learner to educator ratios (LER) and class sizes. Also tracked are the replacement demand factors driven by natural attrition, including attrition brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.  \nOn the supply side key factors tracked include internal supply factors covering appointment and deployment and demographic patterns, and external supply factors focus mainly on new  \ngraduates and the pool of returning teachers. Prof Martin Gustafsson (Stellenbosch University  \n– Department of Economics) refers to this phenomenon as “churning” to describe the repeated movements in and out of public employment of the same people.  \nEach year the Department of Higher Education and Training collects audited data on new teacher graduates from universities and compiles a national report. The latest national report is the Trends in Teacher Education 2018 Report. 28,203 new teachers graduated in 2018, well above the 22,031 target that was set for 2018 by the DHET. The Report also shows that nearly 215,000 students are enrolled for initial teacher education qualifications at the 24 public universities offering teacher education programme.  \nThe number of initial teacher education graduates increased from 10,593 in 2011 to 28,203 in 2018. The DBE is concerned that these graduates are not always absorbed in the public education system. There are a growing number of qualified teachers in the unemployed educator databases both at national and in provinces. Recent numbers collated as part of preparation for COVID-19 provisioning , suggest that there may be as much as 50,000 unemployed teachers registered in the databases of unemployed educators maintained at national and in provinces.  \nReplacement demand resulting from attrition remains the key driver ofteacher demand. Teacher attrition has averaged at 4.4% over the financial years 2015/16-2019/20. This is comparable with international trends. Nearly 400,000 teachers are employed in public schools. According to PERSAL (June 2020) about 18,000 teachers are between the ages of 60 and 65. 6,493 of these teachers have","cbCaiomAvaCPwLc2","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiomAvaCPwLc2","pdf",245531,"English","# Response to Prof. Jonathan Jansen’s Article\n## Critique of the article’s evidence and claims\n## DBE’s monitoring of demand, supply, and utilization\n## Graduate numbers and absorption into the system\n## Attrition, teacher unemployment databases, and mitigation options\n## Call for verified data and evidence-based academic discourse","[{\"question\":\"Why does the Department of Basic Education disagree with claims of a teacher supply crisis?\",\"answer\":\"It states that it tracks educator demand, supply, and utilization through human resource planning and provisioning, including factors affecting demand and replacement demand from attrition. The response presents this monitoring as evidence that a crisis claim is not aligned with tracked trends.\"},{\"question\":\"What data does the response cite regarding new teacher graduates and targets?\",\"answer\":\"It cites the Trends in Teacher Education 2018 Report, stating 28,203 new teachers graduated in 2018 versus a 22,031 target set for 2018 by DHET. It also notes enrollment levels in initial teacher education qualifications across public universities.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the response explain teacher attrition and its impact on replacement demand?\",\"answer\":\"It describes teacher attrition averaging 4.4% over financial years 2015/16–2019/20 and says this remains a key driver of teacher demand. It also provides related age distribution figures using PERSAL data (June 2020).\"}]","RESPONDING TO Prof. Jonathan Jansen’s Article - A Response With Verified Facts | PDF"]