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Using National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies data, the analysis finds bachelor’s-degree expectations declined from 2002 to 2022 and uncertainty about intended highest degree increased, with first-generation students consistently holding lower expectations. The brief contextualizes changes alongside parental expectations and correlational trends tied to concerns about paying for college.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-brief-september-2025-future-education-expectations-of-high-school-students-decline-to-the-lowest-level-in-20-years/587190/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/research-brief-september-2025-future-education-expectations-of-high-school-students-decline-to-the-lowest-level-in-20-years/587190.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Fahsai","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":24},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the main purpose of this research brief?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"To examine whether the media narrative that college may not be worth the investment is affecting students’ educational expectations. The brief focuses on changes over time, particularly for first-generation students.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Which data source does the analysis use?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"It uses data from the National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program, surveying students during their freshman or sophomore years of high school and collecting degree expectations.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What trends does the brief report from 2002 to 2022?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Bachelor’s-degree expectations decrease over time, while uncertainty about the intended highest degree increases. The brief also reports consistently lower expectations among first-generation students across the years studied.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},587190,1793143923,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":24,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":81,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":39,"preview_page_count":4},549768702563,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000c4aa63b76e948b?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1786536092046926083","Dedicated to supporting college access and success for low-income and first-generation students through unimpeachable research and statistics.  \n RESEARCH BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2025   \nFuture Education Expectations of High School Students Decline to the Lowest Level in 20 Years for Both First-Generation and Continuing Generation Students  \nSean Simone, Ph. D.  \nElise Christopher, Ph. D.1  \nIn recent years, a narrative has taken hold in the popular media that college may not be worth the investment, given the increasing costs of college (Baumhardt & Julin, 2019; CBS News, 2024; Cheung, 2023; Farrington, 2022; Mowreader, 2024; Ruppel Shell, 2018) . However, national studies have consistently shown that higher levels of education are related to higher pay, upward mobility, improved health outcomes, and greater civic involvement (Ma, Pender, & Welch, 2019; Perna, 2005) . The purpose of this brief is to explore whether this narrative may be affecting the educational expectations of students.  \nA survey from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation indicates high expectations from parents with children younger than 18 years old. Fifty-nine percent of parents prefer their child to enter college after high school, with 40% wanting their child to attend a four-year institution (Markem, 2025) . Students’ own expectations for their higher education may not align with those of their parents.  \nThis analysis uses data from the National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program.2 These studies surveyed students during their freshman or sophomore years of high school and asked about their high school or postsecondary degree expectations. As shown in Figure 1, student expectations to attain a bachelor’s degree were lower in 2022 (44%) than in 2009 (59%) and 2002 (72%) .  \nFirst-generation students, defined here as students whose parents attained a high school diploma as their highest degree,3 have consistently had lower education expectations compared to those with parents with a bachelor’s degree or higher across all years. However, the expectations of both groups have decreased over time (see Figure 2) . For first-generation students, in 2002, some 60% of students expected to attain at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to about a third (33%) in 2022. Similar declines are evident for students with at least one parent with a bachelor’s degree, with 83% wishing to attain a bachelor’s degree in 2002, a rate that declined to just over half of respondents (53%) in 2022.  \nFIGURE 1: Percentage of students who have education expectations at or above the bachelor’s degree: 2002, 2009, and 2022  \n100%  \n80%  \n60%  \n40%  \n20%  \n0%  \n71.6%  \n2002 2009 2022  \nYear of High School Survey  \nSource: National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, and the High School and Beyond Study of 2022. Analysis by authors.  \n1. Research Associate, Agora Education Research.  \n2. This brief uses data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, and the High School and Beyond Study of 2022. See [https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/slsp](https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/slsp).  \n3. Due to data limitations, we could not combine groups of less-than-high school, high school graduates, and those with some college into one group.  \n1025 Vermont Ave., NW, Suite 400 | Washington, DC 20005 | 202-347-7430 | Visit [us online @ pellinstitute.org](us online @ pellinstitute.org)  \nDedicated to supporting college access and success for low-income and first-generation students through unimpeachable research and statistics.  \n RESEARCH BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2025   \nFIGURE 2: Percentage of students who have education expectations at or above the bachelor’s degree, by parents’ education level: 2002, 2009, and 2022  \n100%  \n80%  \n60%  \n40%  \n20%  \n0%  \n82.6%  \nHigh school or equivalent  \nParents’ highest education level  \nBachelor’s degree or higher  \n 2002  2009  2022  \nS","cbCaigRhqBsLkC9n","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaigRhqBsLkC9n","pdf",116814,"English","# Research Brief September 2025\n## Purpose and Context\n## Parental Expectations vs. Student Expectations\n## Data and Methods\n## Trends in Bachelor’s Degree Expectations (2002, 2009, 2022)\n## First-Generation vs. Continuing-Generation Differences\n## Increasing Uncertainty Over Time\n## Figures and Sources\n## References","[{\"question\":\"What is the main purpose of this research brief?\",\"answer\":\"To examine whether the media narrative that college may not be worth the investment is affecting students’ educational expectations. The brief focuses on changes over time, particularly for first-generation students.\"},{\"question\":\"Which data source does the analysis use?\",\"answer\":\"It uses data from the National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program, surveying students during their freshman or sophomore years of high school and collecting degree expectations.\"},{\"question\":\"What trends does the brief report from 2002 to 2022?\",\"answer\":\"Bachelor’s-degree expectations decrease over time, while uncertainty about the intended highest degree increases. The brief also reports consistently lower expectations among first-generation students across the years studied.\"}]","RESEARCH BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2025 - Future Education Expectations of High School Students Decline to the Lowest Level in 20 Years | PDF",1792060959]