[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111546-en":3,"doc-seo-111546-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111546,8796095461610,"Oliver","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Uzbekistan - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low External Debt Distress","Joint IMF and World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Uzbekistan’s external debt vulnerabilities and finds a low risk of external debt distress alongside strong debt carrying capacity. Under the baseline scenario, public and publicly guaranteed external debt and total external debt gradually decline from 2024 levels after GDP revisions. Stress tests keep most PPG external debt indicators below thresholds, with the largest risks linked to contingent liabilities from state enterprises, PPPs, and financial markets.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Asad Alam (IDA) , and Thanos Arvanitis and Jarkko Turunen (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not Applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) finds Uzbekistan’s risk of external debt distress is low 1 and debt carrying capacity is strong. 2 Under the baseline scenario, public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt and total external debt gradually fall from their levels of 30 and 56 percent of GDP, respectively, in 2024.3 Compared to the previous DSA of July 2024 , the path of the PPG external and total external debt-to-GDP ratios are modestly higher over the medium term4 due to higher external borrowing to fund investment.  \nUnder stress scenarios, most of the indicators for PPG external debt remain well below relevant thresholds. The greatest potential shock to the PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio would arise from the realization of contingent liabilities from state enterprises, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and financial markets. Under a large negative  \n1 This DSA was prepared jointly by IMF and World Bank staff and is based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) methodology.  \n2 Uzbekistan’s Composite Indicator score is 3.30 based on data from the Fall 2024 World Economic Outlook and 2023 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment.  \n3 In 2024, the government revised GDP statistics to more accurately reflect the size of the informal economy. Reported GDP rose by about 12 percent, and debt-to-GDP fell by a corresponding amount. Thus, the debt ratios in this DSA are not directly comparable to the ratios in the 2024 country report.  \n4 The medium term in this DSA refers to 2025-2030 compared to 2024-2029 in the 2024 DSA.  \nshock to exports, the PPG external debt service-to-exports ratio would approach, but not breach, its threshold in 2028 and 2032.  \nOverall, the probability that risks will materialize is about the same as in the 2024 DSA. Risks arising from trade policy shocks and global sovereign distress have risen, while risks from regional instability, while elevated, have fallen. Risks are mitigated by Uzbekistan’s relatively high foreign exchange reserves (10 months of imports and 36 percent of GDP) and a large share of official borrowing (78 percent of total PPG debt) at long maturities and relatively low interest rates. Government policies also mitigate risk. The public debt law limits total PPG debt to 60 percent of GDP and requires government action if the PPG debt reaches 50 percent of GDP. Total PPG debt was 32.6 percent of GDP at end-2024. In addition to the public debt law, the annual budget law limits the overall fiscal deficit and new commitments of PPG external debt. The government introduced a new annual cap on new PPPs in the 2025 budget and is working to further reduce the risk from PPPs in the future.  \n1. Public debt coverage is broad (Text Table 1) . Public debt coverage comprises public and publicly guaranteed debt of the central, regional, and local governments; extra-budgetary funds (includingthe pension fund); and guaranteed debt of state enterprises. At end-2024, total PPG debt amounted to 32.6 percent of GDP, of which public debt was 27.9 percent of GDP and publicly guaranteed debt was 4.7 percent of GDP (Text Table 3) . PPG debt excludes non-guaranteed debt of state enterprises and direct and contingent liabilities of PPPs. Non-guaranteed debt of state enterprises was estimated at 11 percent of GDP at the end of 2024. The nominal value of PPPs outstanding stood at 27 percent of GDP at end- 2024, with the authorities ","cbCainAfU2aFhalf","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCainAfU2aFhalf","pdf",695391,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Baseline Scenario\n## Stress Scenarios and Contingent Liabilities\n## Risk Mitigation Measures\n# Public Debt Coverage and Contingency Stress Tests","[{\"question\":\"What does the DSA conclude about Uzbekistan’s external debt risk?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that Uzbekistan faces a low risk of external debt distress and has strong debt carrying capacity.\"},{\"question\":\"How do external debt levels change under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline scenario, PPG external debt and total external debt gradually fall from 2024 levels as measured against GDP.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors present the biggest potential shocks in stress scenarios?\",\"answer\":\"The largest potential shock to the PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP comes from realization of contingent liabilities from state enterprises, PPPs, and financial 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does the DSA conclude about Uzbekistan’s external debt risk?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis concludes that Uzbekistan faces a low risk of external debt distress and has strong debt carrying capacity.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How do external debt levels change under the baseline scenario?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Under the baseline scenario, PPG external debt and total external debt gradually fall from 2024 levels as measured against GDP.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which factors present the biggest potential shocks in stress scenarios?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The largest potential shock to the PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP comes from realization of contingent liabilities from state enterprises, PPPs, and financial 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