[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111585-en":3,"doc-seo-111585-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111585,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Uzbekistan - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External Debt Distress Risk Low","Joint IMF-World Bank assessment concludes that Uzbekistan’s risk of external debt distress is low and overall risk of debt distress is low, with debt carrying capacity assessed as strong. Under the baseline scenario, public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt and total external debt decline gradually from 2023 levels, supported by higher projected GDP growth. Stress scenarios keep PPG external debt indicators below relevant thresholds, though debt service-to-exports may near its threshold under combined shocks. Risks remain elevated from commodity price volatility and global or regional instability, mitigated by sizable foreign exchange reserves and prudent policies.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA) Thanos Arvanitis and Jarkko Turunen (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nStaff assesses Uzbekistan’s risk of external debt distress as low 1 and debt carrying capacity as strong. 2 Under the baseline scenario, public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt and total external debt gradually fall from their levels of 34 and 60 percent of GDP, respectively, in 2023.3 PPG external debt path is modestly lower than in the previous DSA of June 2022 , largely due to higher projected GDP growth. The total external debt-to-GDP ratio is modestly higher, mainly due to a higher initial total external debt ratio.  \n1 This DSA was prepared jointly by IMF and World Bank staff and is based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) methodology.  \n2 Uzbekistan’s Composite Indicator score is 3.24 based on data from the April 2024 World Economic Outlook and 2022 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment , corresponding to a strong debt carrying capacity.  \n3 Due to a difference in the calculation method, the external debt to GDP ratios in this DSA differ marginally from the ratios calculated by Uzbekistan’s authorities and by the IMF in the Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation. In this DSA, the PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio is computed by dividing the debt stock in domestic currency by GDP in domestic currency (i.e. , PPG external debt is converted from US dollars to domestic currency using the end of period exchange rate) . The private external debt-to-GDP ratio is computed by dividing the debt stock in US dollars by GDP in US dollars (i.e. , GDP is converted from local currency to US dollars using the annual average exchange rate) . In Table 1 of the Staff Report, the ratios of PPG and private external debt to GDP are both computed in local currency. The difference between the average and end of period exchange rates causes a small difference in debt-to-GDP ratios computed in local currency and US dollars.  \nUnder stress scenarios, all indicators for PPG external debt would remain below relevant thresholds, although the debt service-to-exports ratio would approach, but not exceed, its threshold under a combination shock. The probability that risks will materialize is about the same as in the 2022 DSA. The risks of commodity price volatility and global or regional instability remain elevated, while the risks of a global growth slowdown or miscalibration of monetary policy have receded. Risks are mitigated by Uzbekistan’s substantial foreign exchange reserves, the large share of official borrowing, and prudent government policies. Foreign exchange reserves stood at 9 months of imports, 38 percent of GDP at end-2023, and substantially above the IMF’s reserve adequacy metric4. Rollover risk is low as PPG external borrowing is mostly multilateral and bilateral borrowing at long maturities and relatively low interest rates. The government has implemented limits on new commitments of PPG external debt in the annual budget law and a limit on total PPG debt to 60 percent of GDP in the 2023 public debt law. The public debt law also authorizes the introduction of a ceiling on PPP related guarantees.  \nThe IMF and World Bank encourage Uzbekistan’s authorities to continue carefully managing fiscal balances and public and external borrowing. Continued improvements in budgeting and public investment management would strengthen Uzbekistan’s fiscal management. The authorities are also encouraged to implement additional limits on contingent liabilities that ","cbCaiivw2HiNhppL","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiivw2HiNhppL","pdf",633148,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment outcomes\n## External debt distress and overall risk\n## Debt carrying capacity and baseline trajectory\n# Methodology notes and comparison\n## LIC-DSA approach and indicator definitions\n# Stress scenarios and risk mitigation\n## Threshold behavior under shocks\n## Reserves, borrowing structure, and policy measures\n# Policy recommendations\n## Fiscal management and contingent liability limits","[{\"question\":\"What is Uzbekistan’s assessed risk of external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The staff assesses the risk of external debt distress as low, and overall risk of debt distress is also low.\"},{\"question\":\"How do external debt levels evolve under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, PPG external debt and total external debt gradually fall from their 2023 levels as projected GDP growth is higher than in the prior DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Which stress test results could approach relevant thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"In stress scenarios, PPG external debt indicators remain below relevant thresholds, but the debt service-to-exports ratio would approach its threshold under a combination shock without exceeding 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is Uzbekistan’s assessed risk of external debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The staff assesses the risk of external debt distress as low, and overall risk of debt distress is also low.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How do external debt levels evolve under the baseline scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, PPG external debt and total external debt gradually fall from their 2023 levels as projected GDP growth is higher than in the prior DSA.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which stress test results could approach relevant thresholds?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"In stress scenarios, PPG external debt indicators remain below relevant thresholds, but the debt service-to-exports ratio would approach its threshold under a combination shock without exceeding 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