[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110994-en":3,"doc-seo-110994-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110994,1099514068365,"Aurelia","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/10000253d8d9f28188e?_k=1776742907772140068",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Tajikistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk of external debt distress - High","Joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Tajikistan’s debt as sustainable, while the overall risk of debt distress remains high. Public debt rose to 50.1 percent of GDP in 2020 amid the COVID-19 shock and emergency financing, but the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 39.8 percent by 2026. Key indicators stabilize below thresholds by 2031 under the baseline. Vulnerabilities persist, especially to export shocks and contingent fiscal liabilities, including those linked to SOEs.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nLalita M. Moorty and Marcello Estevão (IDA), and Subir Lall and Daria Zakharova (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staffs of the International Development Association (IDA) 1 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN\u003Cbr>JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\nThis joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable while the overall risk of debt distress remains high (unchanged from the May 2020 DSA)2. Public debt jumped to 50.1 percent of GDP in 2020 from 44 percent of GDP in 2019, reflecting the fallout from the COVID-19 shock on growth and revenues, notwithstanding emergency financing provided by the IMF and international donors. However, based on the authorities’ adherence to fiscal discipline, the debt-to-GDP ratio declines to 39.8 percent in 2026 and is assessed as sustainable. Likewise, the DSA indicates that the present value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio declines over the same period to 30.3 percent.  \nUnder the baseline, one debt indicator temporarily breaches its threshold, leading to a high external risk rating. In addition to the estimated fiscal adjustment of 1.8 percent of GDP from 2020-2022, the authorities’plan to limit fiscal deficits to-2.5 percent of GDP over the medium term, and the commitment to avoid nonconcessional borrowing, the key debt indicators are projected to stabilize below their respective sustainability thresholds by 2031.  \nTajikistan’s public debt is vulnerable, especially to export shocks and contingent fiscal liabilities. A more severe or prolonged COVID-19 shock could heighten vulnerabilities. Maintaining fiscal discipline, avoiding non-concessional external borrowing, expanding and diversifying exports, and containing contingent liabilities from SOEs would help reduce vulnerabilities and stabilize debt.  \n1. In recent years, external and financial sector vulnerabilities have contributed to an increase in debt. Tajikistan’s external public-and-publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt rose from 24 percent of GDP in 2014 to 43.5 percent of GDP at end-2020 mainly as a consequence of a sizable depreciation of the somoni, large financing needs related to the construction of Roghun, and the fallout of the COVID-19 shock. This increase was driven by both commercial debt (the issuance of a $500 million sovereign bond in 2017) 3 and concessional debt (emergency borrowing from development partners during the COVID-19 shock) . Domestic PPG debt also increased from 3½ percent of GDP at end-2014 to 6.7 percent of GDP at end- 2020, partly reflecting a 6 percent of GDP recapitalization of banks in December 2016. As a result, the total PPG debt increased from 27.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to 50.1 percent of GDP in 2020. Tajikistan has participated in the 2020 DSSI but does not plan to join further phases.4  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n\n2. External debt made up the bulk of the total of PPG debt in 2020. External PPG debt accounted for about 87 percent of total PPG debt. Over 80 percent of external PPG debt was owed to multilateral and bilateral creditors. The single largest creditor was China, which held over 34 percent of the total PPG external debt.  \n3. The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) is the main creditor and holder of largely non-marketable domestic government debt. Most of the government securities held by the NBT were issued at significantly below-market terms, with some interest rates as low as 2 percent. Since 2016, the government has been accumulating interest and principal arrears to the NBT. In 2019, the arrears on domestic government securities issued for the NBT recapitalization were cleared after the NBT extended new credit to the government at a 2 percent interest rat","cbCaiaZweVtHKF04","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiaZweVtHKF04","pdf",812660,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Overall risk assessment\n## Debt sustainability and projected trajectory\n# Baseline scenario and threshold breaches\n## External risk rating drivers\n# Vulnerabilities and mitigation measures\n## Export shocks and contingent liabilities\n# Background on public debt dynamics\n## External and domestic PPG debt evolution\n# Institutional coverage and assumptions\n## Scope limitations and macroeconomic assumptions","[{\"question\":\"What does the joint Debt Sustainability Analysis conclude about Tajikistan’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable. At the same time, the overall risk of debt distress remains high and is unchanged from the May 2020 DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"How did Tajikistan’s public debt change around 2020 and what is expected afterward?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt increased to 50.1 percent of GDP in 2020 from 44 percent in 2019 due to the COVID-19 shock. Based on fiscal discipline, the debt-to-GDP ratio is assessed to decline to 39.8 percent in 2026.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors make Tajikistan’s public debt vulnerable?\",\"answer\":\"The document highlights vulnerability to export shocks and contingent fiscal liabilities. It notes that a more severe or prolonged COVID-19 shock could further heighten vulnerabilities.\"}]",1784488062,43,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-tajikistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-of-external-debt-distress-high","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-tajikistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-of-external-debt-distress-high/110994/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What does the joint Debt Sustainability Analysis conclude about Tajikistan’s debt sustainability?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis concludes that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable. At the same time, the overall risk of debt distress remains high and is unchanged from the May 2020 DSA.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How did Tajikistan’s public debt change around 2020 and what is expected afterward?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Public debt increased to 50.1 percent of GDP in 2020 from 44 percent in 2019 due to the COVID-19 shock. Based on fiscal discipline, the debt-to-GDP ratio is assessed to decline to 39.8 percent in 2026.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which factors make Tajikistan’s public debt vulnerable?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The document highlights vulnerability to export shocks and contingent fiscal liabilities. It notes that a more severe or prolonged COVID-19 shock could further heighten vulnerabilities.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]