[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111219-en":3,"doc-seo-111219-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111219,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Tajikistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Key Findings - Risks","Joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis for Tajikistan concludes that overall public debt stays on a sustainable path, supported by a medium-term fiscal deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP. Despite sustainability of the debt path, both external risk of debt distress and overall risk remain high (unchanged from February 2023) because the external debt service-to-export indicator is breached in 2025–2027. The analysis attributes elevated stress-test vulnerability to export shocks, contingent liabilities, and commodity-price movements, and updates borrowing assumptions for Rogun hydropower and semi-concessional financing.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Subir Lall and Pritha Mitra (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable while the external and overall risk of debt distress remain high (unchanged from the February 2023 DSA) . 1 External borrowing has been revised upward compared to the previous DSA to reflect the re-estimated construction costs for the Rogun hydropower plant (HPP) .2 The composition of borrowing has also been revised to incorporate semi-concessional financing beginning in 2024 as a result of rising global interest rates. 3 Nevertheless, public debt remains on a sustainable path, anchored by the authorities’ commitment to maintain a fiscal deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP over the medium term. 4 Under the baseline, the total PPG debt-to-GDP ratio declines from 32.5 percent in 2022 to about 29 percent in 2027 once Tajikistan’s Eurobond is repaid and stabilizes at about 32 percent over the long run.  \n1 The CI for Tajikistan is estimated at 3. 07, based on October 2023 WEO and 2022 World Bank’s CPIA, indicating a strong Debt Carrying Capacity (DCC) rating.  \n2 Based on the World Bank’s Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun HPP (P178819) and Sustainable Financing for Rogun HPP (P181029) .  \n3 Although the grant element of the overall financing package for Rogun is above the concessionality threshold of 35 percent, several of the individual loans are not expected to be on fully concessional terms.  \n4 Maintaining a medium-term fiscal deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP is a key policy commitment under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) .  \nTajikistan’s high risk of debt distress mainly results from the breach of external PPG debt service-to-export indicator in 2025-2027. Debt service peaks during this period due to principal repayments due on the Eurobond (US$500 million) and theRCF loan (about USD $183 million) . This indicator also shows high vulnerability in stress tests, especially shocks to exports, contingent liabilities, and commodity prices.  \nMaintaining fiscal discipline, including capping fiscal deficits and containing risks from SOEs, as well as diversifying exports, are key to reduce vulnerabilities and keep debt on a sustainable path.  \n1. In recent years, strong GDP growth and currency appreciation have lowered debt-to-GDP levels. Tajikistan’s external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt rose from 24 percent of GDP in 2014 to 43.8 percent of GDP at end-2020 mainly because of a significant depreciation of the Tajikistan somoni (TJS, the local currency), increases in Rogun-related spending that resulted in sizable fiscal deficitsin 2016 and 2017, and the fallout of the COVID-19 shock. This increase was driven by both commercial debt (the issuance of a US$500 million sovereign bond in 2017) 5 and concessional debt (emergency borrowing from development partners during the COVID-19 shock) . In 2023, external PPG debt declined to about 27.6 percent of GDP reflecting strong GDP growth and debt repayments. Domestic PPG debt followed a similar pattern. It increased from 3.5 percent of GDP at end-2014 to 6.6 percent of GDP at end-2020 and then declined to about 3.3 percent of GDP in 2023. The temporary increase in domestic PPG debt mostly reflects the cost of recapitalization of two large banks in December 2016, estimated at about 6 percent of GDP.  \n2. External debt continuestoaccount for themajorityof PPG debt in 2022. External PPG debt amounted to nearly 88 percent of total PPG","cbCailOMoxgISct9","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCailOMoxgISct9","pdf",2060889,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Key Conclusions\n## Risk Ratings and Judgment\n## Baseline Debt Path and Policy Anchors\n# Drivers of High External Risk\n## Eurobond and RCF Repayment Peaks\n## Stress-Test Vulnerabilities\n# Borrowing Revisions and Debt Composition\n## Rogun Financing Updates\n## External and Domestic Debt Developments\n## Domestic Arrears and Central Bank Support","[{\"question\":\"What does the joint DSA conclude about Tajikistan’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA finds Tajikistan’s public debt is sustainable overall, but both external and overall risks of debt distress remain high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the external risk of debt distress assessed as high?\",\"answer\":\"High risk is mainly linked to breaching the external debt service-to-export indicator during 2025–2027, when debt service peaks due to principal repayments on the Eurobond and the RCF loan.\"},{\"question\":\"What policy measures does the analysis recommend to reduce vulnerabilities?\",\"answer\":\"It emphasizes maintaining fiscal discipline (including limiting deficits), managing risks from state-owned enterprises, and diversifying exports to keep debt on a sustainable path.\"}]",1784489161,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-tajikistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-findings-risks","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-tajikistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-findings-risks/111219/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What does the joint DSA conclude about Tajikistan’s debt sustainability?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The DSA finds Tajikistan’s public debt is sustainable overall, but both external and overall risks of debt distress remain high.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is the external risk of debt distress assessed as high?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"High risk is mainly linked to breaching the external debt service-to-export indicator during 2025–2027, when debt service peaks due to principal repayments on the Eurobond and the RCF loan.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What policy measures does the analysis recommend to reduce vulnerabilities?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"It emphasizes maintaining fiscal discipline (including limiting deficits), managing risks from state-owned enterprises, and diversifying exports to keep debt on a sustainable 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