[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111635-en":3,"doc-seo-111635-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111635,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Tajikistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Key Findings and Risk Assessment","This joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Tajikistan’s public and external debt outlook. It concludes that debt is sustainable, but both the external and overall risk of debt distress remain high, unchanged from the February 2024 DSA. The high risk is driven mainly by breaching the external PPG debt service-to-export indicator during 2025–2027 and by vulnerability in stress tests. The baseline stabilizes total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP at around 31% long-term. A fiscal deficit target of 2.5% of GDP, prudent fiscal policy, and managing SOE-related risks are highlighted as key to reducing vulnerabilities.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Asad Alam (IDA) , and Subir Lall and Pritha Mitra (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable while the external and overall risk of debt distress remain high (unchanged from the February 2024 DSA) . 1 Nevertheless, public debt remains on a sustainable path, anchored by the authorities’ commitment to maintaining a fiscal deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP over the medium term.2 External borrowing has been revised slightly downward compared to the previous DSA to reflect the lower 2024 outturn and updated estimates of construction costs for the Rogun hydropower plant (HPP) .3 This has reduced the share of semi-concessional financing.4 Under the baseline, the total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes at about 31 percent over the long-term.  \nTajikistan’s high risk of debt distress mainly results from the breach of the external PPG debt service-to-export indicator in 2025-2027. Debt service peaks during this period following principal repayments that are due on the Eurobond  \n1 The composite indicator (CI) for Tajikistan is estimated at 3 . 12, based on 2023 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) and the October 2024 IMF WEO, indicating a strong Debt Carrying Capacity (DCC) rating.  \n2 Maintaining a medium-term fiscal deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP is a key policy commitment under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) .  \n3 Based on the World Bank’s Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun HPP (P178819) and Sustainable Financing for Rogun HPP (P181029) .  \n4 Although the grant element of the overall financing package for Rogun is above the concessionality threshold of 35 percent, several of the individual loans are not expected to be on fully concessional terms.  \n(US$500 million) and the RCF loan (about US$183 million) . This indicator also shows high vulnerability in stress tests, especially shocks to exports, contingent liabilities, and commodity prices.  \nAdhering to fiscal discipline and containing SOE-related risks, as well as diversifying exports by removing barriers to private sector led growth, are key to reducing debt vulnerabilities and keeping debt on a sustainable path.  \n1. This DSA covers the central government, central bank, and government-guaranteed external and domestic debt (Text Table 3) . Debt coverage includes external and domestic debt and guarantees of the Central Government (CG), including extrabudgetary funds, and the social security fund. As debt recording and monitoring capacity is weak, this DSA does not include in its baseline: (i) nonguaranteed liabilities of state-owned enterprises (SOEs),5 (ii) debt of state and local governments, given that the bulk of this debt is contracted by the central government, recorded as central government debt and then on-lent to local governments in the form of sub-loans, and (iii) demand or guarantees triggered from any existing public-private partnership (PPP) agreements.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| Subsectors of the public sector Check box 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |\n\n2. Prudent fiscal policies and rapid economic growt","cbCaif5ySLnDexsw","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaif5ySLnDexsw","pdf",917368,1,26,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Risk ratings and granularity\n## Main drivers of external risk\n# Baseline and key indicators\n## Debt-to-GDP stabilization\n## Policy anchor: fiscal deficit target\n# Public debt coverage and scope\n## What is included vs excluded\n# Policy and macro-financial context\n## Fiscal consolidation post-COVID\n## External borrowing and creditor structure\n# Outlook and mitigation priorities\n## SOE risks and export diversification","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall conclusion of the joint DSA for Tajikistan’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA indicates that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable. However, the external and overall risk of debt distress remain high and unchanged from the February 2024 assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the risk of external debt distress assessed as high?\",\"answer\":\"The main reason is a breach of the external PPG debt service-to-export indicator during 2025–2027. Stress tests also show high vulnerability to shocks to exports, contingent liabilities, and commodity prices.\"},{\"question\":\"What policy commitment supports keeping debt on a sustainable path?\",\"answer\":\"Authorities are committed to maintaining a medium-term fiscal deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP. The document also emphasizes adhering to fiscal discipline and containing SOE-related risks.\"}]",1784491019,66,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-tajikistan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-findings-and-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-tajikistan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-findings-and-risk-assessment/111635/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall conclusion of the joint DSA for Tajikistan’s debt sustainability?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The DSA indicates that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable. However, the external and overall risk of debt distress remain high and unchanged from the February 2024 assessment.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is the risk of external debt distress assessed as high?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The main reason is a breach of the external PPG debt service-to-export indicator during 2025–2027. Stress tests also show high vulnerability to shocks to exports, contingent liabilities, and commodity prices.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What policy commitment supports keeping debt on a sustainable path?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Authorities are committed to maintaining a medium-term fiscal deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP. The document also emphasizes adhering to fiscal discipline and containing SOE-related risks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]