[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110129-en":3,"doc-seo-110129-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110129,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Tajikistan - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High risk assessment","Joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis finds Tajikistan’s public debt remains sustainable, while the external and overall risk of debt distress is high. Under strong GDP growth and adherence to fiscal discipline, public debt and debt-to-GDP indicators are projected to decline over the medium term. The assessment, however, highlights breaches in the external debt service-to-export threshold, leaving Tajikistan vulnerable to export shocks and contingent fiscal liabilities, especially those linked to SOEs.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nLalita M. Moorty and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Subir Lall and Eugenio Cerutti (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association(IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates that Tajikistan’s debt is sustainable while the external and overall risk of debt distress remains high (unchanged from the December 2021 DSA) . 1  \nPublic debt declined from 49.8 percent of GDP in 2020 to 43.4 percent of GDP in 2021, reflecting strong GDP growth. Under the baseline, the debt-to-GDP ratio declines further to 31.0 percent by 2027 based on the authorities’ adherence to fiscal discipline and is thus assessed as sustainable. Likewise, the present value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline over the same period to 24.2 percent. However, the external debt service-to-export indicator breaches its threshold, leading to a high external risk rating.  \nThe authorities’ commitment to maintain a fiscal deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP over the medium term, and to avoid nonconcessional external borrowing is projected to stabilize key debt indicators below their respective sustainability thresholds by 2032.2  \nTajikistan’s public debt is sustainable but remains vulnerable, especially to export shocks and contingent fiscal liabilities. Maintaining fiscal discipline, avoiding non-concessional external borrowing, expanding and diversifying  \n1 The CI for Tajikistan is estimated at 3.08, based on October 2022 WEO and 2021 World Bank’s CPIA, indicating a strong Debt Carrying Capacity (DCC) .  \n2 The commitment is made under the IMF’s Rapid Credit Facility of 2020) .  \nexports, and containing contingent liabilities from SOEs would reduce vulnerabilities and stabilize debt Tajikistan’s public debt is sustainable but remains vulnerable, especially to export shocks and contingent fiscal liabilities. Maintaining fiscal discipline, avoiding non-concessional external borrowing, expanding and diversifying exports, and containing contingent liabilities from SOEs would reduce vulnerabilities and stabilize debt.  \n1. In recent years, external and financial sector factors have contributed to variations in debtto-GDP levels. Tajikistan’s external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt rose from 24 percent of GDP in 2014 to 50.4 percent of GDP at end-2020 mainly because of a sizable depreciation of the somoni, an increase in Rogun-related spending that resulted in sizable fiscal deficits in 2016 and 2017, and the fallout of the COVID-19 shock. This increase was driven by both commercial debt (the issuance of a US$500 million sovereign bond in 2017)3 and concessional debt (emergency borrowing from development partners during the COVID-19 shock) . In 2021 external PPG debt declined to 43 percent of GDP reflecting strong GDP growth. Domestic PPG debt followed a similar pattern. It increased from 3.5 percent of GDP at end-2014 to 6.6 percent of GDP at end-2020 and then declined to 5.2 percent of GDP in 2021. The increase in domestic PPG partly reflects a 6 percent of GDP recapitalization of banks in December 2016 .  \n2. External debt accounted for the majority of PPG debt in 2021. External PPG debt amounted to 88 percent of total PPG debt, with over 80 percent of external PPG debt owed to multilateral and bilateral creditors. The largest single creditor was China, which held about a third of the total PPG external debt (Text Table 1) .  \n\n| \u003Cbr>2017 2018 2019 2020 2021\u003Cbr>External Public Debt (US$ billion) 2.84 2.89 2.87 3.28 3.34 |  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Bilateral | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.31 |\n| of whi","cbCaiiqPqvcpDl7o","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiiqPqvcpDl7o","pdf",750201,4,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment results\n## External and overall debt distress risk\n## Judgment and rating granularity\n# Debt outlook and drivers\n## Public debt dynamics\n## External and domestic PPG debt changes\n# Creditors and domestic government debt\n## Creditor structure and multilateral exposure\n## National Bank of Tajikistan holdings and arrears\n# Policy commitments and vulnerabilities\n## Fiscal deficit target and borrowing constraints\n## Export diversification and SOE contingent liabilities","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall and external debt distress risk for Tajikistan?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress as high, with the external risk remaining high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the debt-to-GDP outlook assessed as sustainable under the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt is projected to decline over the medium term under the authorities’ fiscal discipline and a stable macroeconomic path, lowering debt-to-GDP and the present value of debt-to-GDP indicators.\"},{\"question\":\"What key factor drives the high external risk rating despite sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"The external debt service-to-export indicator breaches its threshold, indicating stress in external repayment capacity.\"}]","Republic of Tajikistan - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High risk assessment | PDF",1784484028,48,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"republic-of-tajikistan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-tajikistan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment/110129/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the overall and external debt distress risk for Tajikistan?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis rates both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress as high, with the external risk remaining high.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why is the debt-to-GDP outlook assessed as sustainable under the baseline?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Public debt is projected to decline over the medium term under the authorities’ fiscal discipline and a stable macroeconomic path, lowering debt-to-GDP and the present value of debt-to-GDP indicators.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What key factor drives the high external risk rating despite sustainability?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The external debt service-to-export indicator breaches its threshold, indicating stress in external repayment capacity.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},"General","general"]