[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111587-en":3,"doc-seo-111587-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111587,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Republic of South Sudan - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis","Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Republic of South Sudan assesses both external and overall public debt sustainability following updates to projection years and macroeconomic assumptions since February 2023. The baseline indicates high risk of debt distress externally and overall, with three of four key external indicators breaching thresholds in the short to medium term. Debt service ratios continue to exceed benchmarks until FY2029/30, while value of debt-to-GDP declines below the benchmark starting FY2028/29. Findings rely on limited central-government coverage and omit SOEs where data are incomplete.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA) and Catherine Pattillo and Guillaume Chabert (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe baseline in this Debt Sustainability Analysis update (DSA) reflects minor changes with respect to the previous DSA of February 2023, including updating the current year and first year of projections from 2022 to 2023 as well as updates in macroeconomic projections with respect to changes in global macroeconomic assumptions. The financing assumptions, including the debt agreements, are mostly unchanged. South Sudan’s debt remains assessed to be sustainable with a high risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. 1 Three of the four key indicators of public and publicly guaranteed external debt breach the threshold in the short/medium term. The present value of overall debt-to-GDP ratio decreases below the benchmark starting in FY2028/29 . The ratios of debt service-to-exports and to revenue continue to slightly exceed the threshold until FY2029/30 . There are several downside risks to the sustainability assessment, including global external financing conditions, decreased oil revenues from drops in production due to climate-related disasters, the war in Sudan, damages to the oil pipeline, disruption in maritime traffic  \n1 South Sudan’s debt-carrying capacity remains rated “weak” with composite indicator score of 1.39 according to the latest vintage of World Economic Outlook (October 2023) and the Country Policy and the 2022 Institutional Assessment index of the World Bank.  \ndue to the Red Sea crisis, volatility in global oil prices, slow implementation of reforms, in particular on public financial management, and a breakdown in the peace process and the resumption of large-scale civil conflict.  \n1. The DSA is limited to central government debt, as data access and availability remains weak. Debt data collection and compilation present serious weaknesses in South Sudan. SOEs are omitted from the DSA as information about SOE debt and government guarantees is incomplete or unavailable.2 External debt is defined using the currency criterion. The analysis for the contingent liability stress test includes SOE debt, financial market shocks, and a 5 percent shock to GDP to include the potential repayment of salary arrears to embassies’ staff, and other potential arrears or financing shocks.  \nSubsectors of the public sector  \n1 Central government  \n2 State and local government  \n3 Other elements in the general government  \n4 o/w: Social security fund  \n5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)  \n6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)  \n7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)  \n8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt  \nSub-sectors covered  \nX  \nX  \n 1 The country's coverage of public debt The central government, central bank  \nDefault  \nUsed for the analysis  \nReasons for deviations from the default settings  \n2 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.  \n3 SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/  \n4 PPP  \n5 Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP)  \n0 percent of GDP  \n2 percent of GDP  \n35 percent of PPP stock  \n5 percent of GDP  \n5.0  \n2.0  \n0.0  \n5.0  \n12.0  \n1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries, whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country's public debt definition (1 .) . If it is already included in the government debt (1 .) and risks associated with SoE's debt not gu","cbCaieYmsrtpmhjJ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaieYmsrtpmhjJ","pdf",996687,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Summary of debt distress risk\n## Baseline compared with February 2023\n## Key indicators and benchmark breaches\n# Debt outlook and downside risks\n## Debt-to-GDP and debt service ratios\n## Main downside risk channels\n# Scope and methodology\n## Coverage limits and treatment of SOEs\n## Contingent liability stress test assumptions\n# Public sector subsectors and debt coverage","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk rating for debt distress in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Overall risk of debt distress is rated High, for both external and overall public debt sustainability.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt distress indicators breach thresholds, and when?\",\"answer\":\"Three of the four key indicators of public and publicly guaranteed external debt breach the threshold in the short/medium term.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the analysis limited in scope?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA is limited to central government debt because data access and availability are weak, and SOEs are omitted where SOE debt and guarantees are incomplete or unavailable.\"}]",1784490802,43,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-south-sudan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-south-sudan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis/111587/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall risk rating for debt distress in the analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Overall risk of debt distress is rated High, for both external and overall public debt sustainability.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which debt distress indicators breach thresholds, and when?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Three of the four key indicators of public and publicly guaranteed external debt breach the threshold in the short/medium term.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why is the analysis limited in scope?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The DSA is limited to central government debt because data access and availability are weak, and SOEs are omitted where SOE debt and guarantees are incomplete or 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