[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110424-en":3,"doc-seo-110424-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110424,5909877438554,"Maeve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/5600025385ad2bf12a7?_k=1778553567797529272",8,"Research & Report","Republic of South Sudan - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk Assessment","Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Republic of South Sudan finds high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of debt distress, while granularity suggests sustainability in the broader risk rating framework. The baseline incorporates higher oil price assumptions, slower medium-term oil production recovery, a previously identified loan to the National Investment and Development Bank, and more conservative financing terms. Although certain debt indicators breach thresholds in the short/medium term, sustainability is assessed as conditional on prudent fiscal policy and concessional or semiconcessional financing. Key uncertainties include oil price volatility, slow reform implementation, climate-related disasters, and renewed large-scale conflict.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Marcello Estevão (IDA); and Catherine Pattillo and Guillaume Chabert (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe baseline in this Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) reflects several changes with respect to the previous DSA update of October 21, 2021, including the higher outlook for oil prices, a slower recovery in oil production over the medium term, the discovery of an outstanding loan to the National Investment and Development Bank (NIDB) incurred prior to the start of the SMP, and more conservative assumptions on financing terms throughout the forecast period. South Sudan’s debt remains assessed to be sustainable with a high risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt.1 Two of the four key indicators of public and publicly guaranteed external debt breach the threshold in the short/medium term, with debt service to revenue remaining above the threshold through 2027/28, and debt service-to-exports through FY2024/25 . The present value of overall debt-to-GDP ratio decreases below the threshold starting in FY2022/23 . This suggests that risks to external debt distress will remain high, and that maintaining debt sustainability while supporting development objectives would require financing at concessional and semiconcessional terms—such financing is minimal under the baseline. South Sudan’s external and overall debt are assessed to be sustainable given the current recovery in oil prices, and contingent on a prudent path for fiscal policy, including refraining from expensive financing such as oil-advances. There are several downside risks to these assessments, which include potential volatility in oil prices, slow implementation of reforms, effect of climate-related disasters, and a breakdown in the peace process and the resumption of large-scale civil conflict.  \n1. The DSA is limited to central government debt. Debt data collection and compilation presents serious weaknesses in South Sudan. SOEs are omitted from the DSA as information about SOE debt and government guarantees is incomplete or unavailable.2 External debt is defined using the currency criterion. The analysis for the contingent liability stress test includes SOE debt, financial market shocks, and a 2 percent shock to GDP to include the potential repayment of salary arrears to embassies’ staff.  \n2. Debt data access and availability remains weak. The IMF and the World Bank are providing technical assistance (TA) on statistics compilation (including on Balance of Payment statistics) and Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms. This is expected to improve the quality and availability of data. An IMF STA TA mission on International Investment Position, International Aid and External Debt Data is planned for July 2022, and a TA mission on Public Debt Management is planned for September 2022.  \n3. South Sudan’s external public debt was estimated at US$2,390 million (46 percent of GDP) as of December 2021 (Text Table 1) . Debt to the World Bank amounted to US$79 .8 million on IDA terms, while debt to the African Development Bank (AfDB) amounted to US$19 million. Debt to the IMF includes the two disbursements under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of November 2020 and April 2021, and the use of US$150 million from the SDR allocation for budget support.3 Bilateral creditors include China Exim Bank, with a remaining debt estimated at US$130 million at end-December 2021. Amongst commercial creditors the outstanding liability to the Qatar National Bank was amounting to US$586 million at the end of 2021, and the debt stock wit","cbCaiqgRtqOy1kEJ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqgRtqOy1kEJ","pdf",1171092,1,16,"English","en",105,"# Key Risk Findings\n## External Debt Distress and Overall Risk\n## Judgment and Granularity\n# Baseline Assumptions and Drivers\n## Oil Prices and Production Outlook\n## Financing Terms and New Loan Discovery\n# Debt Coverage and Methodological Notes\n## Central Government Focus and Data Limitations\n## Contingent Liability Stress Testing\n# Debt Composition and Capacity\n## Creditor Breakdown and Domestic Debt\n## Debt Service Capacity Impacts\n# Vulnerabilities and Downside Risks\n## Fiscal Policy, Oil-Advances, and Reforms\n## Salary Arrears and Contingency Liabilities\n## Macroeconomic and Conflict-Related Shocks","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall conclusion of the joint DSA for South Sudan?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that external debt distress risk is high and the overall risk of debt distress is high, despite granularity indicating sustainability in part of the rating structure.\"},{\"question\":\"Which baseline changes most affect the debt sustainability assessment?\",\"answer\":\"Key changes include a higher outlook for oil prices, a slower medium-term recovery in oil production, discovery of an outstanding NIDB loan, and more conservative assumptions on financing terms throughout the forecast period.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report still assess debt as sustainable under conditions?\",\"answer\":\"External and overall debt are assessed as sustainable given the current oil price recovery, but only if South Sudan follows a prudent fiscal policy path and relies mainly on concessional or semiconcessional financing rather than expensive options such as oil advances.\"}]",1784485370,40,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-south-sudan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-south-sudan-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment/110424/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall conclusion of the joint DSA for South Sudan?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis concludes that external debt distress risk is high and the overall risk of debt distress is high, despite granularity indicating sustainability in part of the rating structure.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which baseline changes most affect the debt sustainability assessment?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Key changes include a higher outlook for oil prices, a slower medium-term recovery in oil production, discovery of an outstanding NIDB loan, and more conservative assumptions on financing terms throughout the forecast period.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the report still assess debt as sustainable under conditions?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"External and overall debt are assessed as sustainable given the current oil price recovery, but only if South Sudan follows a prudent fiscal policy path and relies mainly on concessional or semiconcessional financing rather than expensive options such as oil advances.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & 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