[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111383-en":3,"doc-seo-111383-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111383,137441390410,"Hazel","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Mozambique - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Debt sustainability analysis for the Republic of Mozambique assesses external public debt risk as high and the overall risk of debt distress as in distress, with unsustainable risk granularity. Total public debt is projected on an unsustainable trajectory, driven by arrears and a total debt-service arrears level of 1.3% of GDP at end-2025. The present value of total public debt-to-GDP remains far above the benchmark, while external PV stays above the threshold before declining by 2032. Restoring sustainability requires credible fiscal adjustment, greater exchange-rate flexibility, and prudent debt management.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA), and Andrea Richter Hume and Jay Peiris (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nOverall public debt is projected to be on an unsustainable path.1 A comprehensive policy package that could potentially safeguard debt sustainability, including a credible fiscal adjustment, greater exchange rate flexibility, and a prudent debt management strategy—has yet to be articulated by the authorities. External public debt is at high risk of debt distress, with the present value (PV) of external debt-to-GDP above the sustainability threshold for multiple years, consistent with previous DSAs. Meanwhile overall public debt is assessed as in distress as total debt-service arrears amounted to 1.3 percent of GDP at end-2025—a downgrade relative to the July 2024 DSA.2 The PV of total public debt-to-GDP is projected to remain significantly above its benchmark throughout the projection horizon. In contrast, the PV of external debt-to-GDP is expected to stay above its sustainability threshold for several years but fall below the threshold by 2032 as LNG revenues pick up (compared to 2030 in the previous DSA) . Fiscal consolidation and greater exchange rate flexibility, combined with enhanced debt management, would significantly help restore debt sustainability.  \n1 Baseline and unchanged policies are used interchangeably throughout the report.  \n2 Similar to the July 2024 DSA, Mozambique’s debt carrying capacity is assessed as “weak” based on a compositor indicator value of 2.49. This assessment is based on the World Economic Outlook, October 2025 and the 2024 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment.  \n1. Public debt coverage remains unchanged from the 2024 DSA (Text Table 1) . It encompasses external and domestic obligations of the central government, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) debt, and government guarantees for SOE contracted debt. Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH) is involved in LNG exploitation. ENH’s external debt accounts for 19.2 percent of GDP, while the rest of SOEs’ external debt accounts for 1.2 percent of GDP (as of end-2024) . Debt is assessed by currency, as creditor residency information is not available. The contingent liabilities stress test assumes the realization of contingencies related to municipal debt,3 an ongoing arbitration claim by Export Trading Group, and non-ENH SOEs external debt—each estimated at 2 percent of GDP and 1.5 percent of GDP, respectively.4 ,5 These contingencies are at or below the default amount for SOEs debt.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| \u003Cbr> Subsectors of the public sector  Sub-sectors covered \u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>XXX 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>1 The country's coverage of public debt The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt Default Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings 2 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.\u003Cbr>3 SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/\u003Cbr>4 PPP\u003Cbr>5 Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 2\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>35\u003Cbr>5 percent of GDP\u003Cbr>percent of GDP\u003Cbr>percent of PPP stock\u003Cbr>percent of GDP 2.0 1.5 3.3 5.0\u003C","cbCaicBcuM4pGCXZ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicBcuM4pGCXZ","pdf",920101,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress\n## Overall risk assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Policy implications and judgment\n# Public Debt Coverage and Contingent Liabilities\n## Coverage scope\n## Contingent liabilities stress test\n# Fiscal Crisis Context\n## Macroeconomic and fiscal drivers\n## Financing constraints","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk level of Mozambique’s external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"External public debt risk is assessed as high, with the present value of external debt-to-GDP above the sustainability threshold for multiple years.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the overall risk of debt distress characterized?\",\"answer\":\"Overall public debt is assessed as in debt distress with unsustainable risk, reflecting unsustainable projected debt dynamics and accumulated debt-service arrears.\"},{\"question\":\"Which measures could help restore debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"A credible fiscal adjustment, greater exchange-rate flexibility, and enhanced debt management are highlighted as key measures to restore debt sustainability.\"}]",1784489875,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-mozambique-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-mozambique-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111383/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-24","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the assessed risk level of Mozambique’s external debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External public debt risk is assessed as high, with the present value of external debt-to-GDP above the sustainability threshold for multiple years.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How is the overall risk of debt distress characterized?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Overall public debt is assessed as in debt distress with unsustainable risk, reflecting unsustainable projected debt dynamics and accumulated debt-service arrears.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which measures could help restore debt sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"A credible fiscal adjustment, greater exchange-rate flexibility, and enhanced debt management are highlighted as key measures to restore debt 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