[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110306-en":3,"doc-seo-110306-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110306,4810365810221,"Aurora","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Mozambique - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High-Risk Findings","Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Republic of Mozambique assesses the risk of external and overall public debt distress as high. The evaluation finds external public debt vulnerability to downside shocks, including natural disasters, increased terrorist activity in the north that could disrupt onshore LNG projects, and worsening geoeconomic fragmentation. The forward-looking public debt outlook is assessed as sustainable because projected borrowing is linked to major LNG projects repaid from future LNG revenues.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA) Andrea Richter Hume and Boileau Loko (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe assessment is unchanged from the DSA at program approval in 2022. Overall and external public debt are assessed to be at high risk of distress due to some indicators remaining above sustainability thresholds for some years under the baseline, and the vulnerability of debt to downside risks during this period.1 Public debt is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense because a large share of projected future borrowing reflects the state’s participation in large LNG projects, which will be repaid directly from future LNG revenues (which are expected to be significant) . The PV of external debt-to-GDP and the public debt-to-GDP ratio reach the threshold one year later than the 2022 DSA, on account of fiscal slippages related to public wage bill reform. Risks are tilted to the downside, reflecting vulnerability to natural disasters, intensification of terrorist activity in the North (which could jeopardize onshore LNG projects), and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation. On the upside, assumptions underlying the DSA are conservative, as growth projections do not incorporate potential spillovers from LNG projects to the broader economy. In addition, external debt is mostly concessional, and debt contracted for LNG development will be entirely repaid from LNG revenue, once production starts.  \n1 Mozambique’s debt carrying capacity is assessed as “weak” based on a compositor indicator value of 2.62. This assessment is based on the World Economic Outlook, April 2023 and the 2021 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment.  \n1. The coverage of public and publicly guaranteed debt is the same as in the program DSA  \n(Text Table 1) . The analysis covers external and domestic obligations of the central government, including on-lending to SOEs. The authorities provide data on debt of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and guarantees provided by the central government on debt contracted by SOEs. Most of SOE guarantees relates to the state energy company—Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH)—which is involved in the LNG exploitation. SOE domestic debt is included, while non-ENH SOE direct external debt is not included. Domestic debt is denominated in local currency and, for the purposes of the analysis, is assessed by currency, as data capturing the residency of creditors are not available. The contingent liabilities stress test assumes realization of contingencies linked to the disputed government guarantees on commercial loans (around 7.5 percent of GDP),2 debt contracted by municipalities, and non-ENH SOE external debt are realized.3 For the latter two contingencies, the contingency is estimated to be slightly above the default amount (at 3 percent in total) based on available information.4  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| \u003Cbr> Subsectors of the public sector  Sub-sectors covered \u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>XXX 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>1 The country's coverage of public debt The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt Default Used for\u003Cbr>the\u003Cbr>analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings 2 Other elements of the general government not captur","cbCaik4RqFAHWla5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaik4RqFAHWla5","pdf",716628,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n## Granularity and judgment application\n# Debt sustainability assessment basis\n## Baseline comparison with 2022 DSA\n## Sustainability thresholds and indicators\n## Public debt sustainability drivers from LNG revenues\n# Debt coverage and methodology\n## Public and publicly guaranteed debt scope\n## Central government and SOE-related obligations\n## Contingent liabilities stress tests\n# Risk factors and scenarios\n## Downside risks\n## Upside assumptions and conservatism\n# Data notes and disclosures\n## Debt carrying capacity and indicators","[{\"question\":\"What risk levels does the analysis assign to Mozambique’s debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are both rated as high. The granularity in the risk rating is described as sustainable, and judgment application is stated as no.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is public debt assessed as sustainable despite high risk?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense because a large share of projected borrowing is linked to major LNG projects, with repayment expected directly from future LNG revenues.\"},{\"question\":\"What main downside risks does the analysis highlight?\",\"answer\":\"Downside risks include vulnerability to natural disasters, possible disruption of onshore LNG projects due to intensified terrorist activity in the north, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation.\"}]",1784484814,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-mozambique-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-findings","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-mozambique-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-findings/110306/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What risk levels does the analysis assign to Mozambique’s debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress are both rated as high. The granularity in the risk rating is described as sustainable, and judgment application is stated as no.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why is public debt assessed as sustainable despite high risk?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Public debt is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense because a large share of projected borrowing is linked to major LNG projects, with repayment expected directly from future LNG revenues.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What main downside risks does the analysis highlight?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Downside risks include vulnerability to natural disasters, possible disruption of onshore LNG projects due to intensified terrorist activity in the north, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]