[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111205-en":3,"doc-seo-111205-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111205,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Mozambique - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk Assessment Summary","Republic of Mozambique’s joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis rates both overall and external public debt at high risk of distress. The assessment remains unchanged from the July 2023 DSA, as several baseline indicators stay above sustainability thresholds and debt is vulnerable to downside shocks. Public debt is viewed as sustainable forward-looking due to large LNG-linked borrowing repaid from future LNG revenues. The update also reflects an October 2023 out-of-court settlement for part of 2013–16 disputed debt.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Andrea Richter Hume and Jay Peiris (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe debt sustainability assessment remains unchanged compared to the July 2023 DSA. 1 The overall and external public debt are assessed at high risk of distress due to some indicators remaining above sustainability thresholds for several years under the baseline, and the vulnerability of debt to downside risks during this period.2 Public debt is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense because a large share of projected future borrowing reflects the state’s participation in large LNG projects, which will be repaid directly from future LNG revenues (which are expected to be significant) . This updated DSA incorporates the fiscal and debt implications of an out-of-court settlement of litigation related to part of Mozambique’s 2013-16 disputed debt, which was concluded in October 2023. The settlement does not have material impact on the projected timing of reaching a “moderate” risk of overall debt distress. Risks are tilted to the downside, reflecting vulnerability to natural disasters, risks of intensification of terrorist activity in the North, deepening geo-economic fragmentation, and fiscal pressures related to municipal elections which took place in October 2023 and general elections due in 2024. On the upside, assumptions underlying the DSA are conservative, as growth projections do not incorporate potential spillovers from LNG projects to the broader economy. In addition,  \n1 This DSA provide an update to the published full DSA accompanying the July 2023 Staff Report for the Second Review under the ECF.  \n2 Similar to the July 2023 DSA, Mozambique’s debt carrying capacity remains to be assessed as “weak” based on a compositor indicator value of 2.62. This assessment is based on the World Economic Outlook, October 2023 and the 2022 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment.  \nexternal debt is mostly concessional, and debt contracted for LNG development will be entirely repaid from LNG revenue, once production starts.  \n1. While the coverage of public and publicly guaranteed debt is the same as presented in the July 2023 DSA, contingent liability has been updated (Text Table 1) .3 The analysis covers external and domestic obligations of the central government, including on-lending to SOEs. The authorities provide data on debt of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and guarantees provided by the central government on debt contracted by SOEs. Most of SOE guarantees relate to the state energy company—Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH)—which is involved in LNG projects.4 SOE domestic debt is included, while nonENH SOE direct external debt is not included. As in the July 2023 DSA, the contingent liabilities stress test includes contingencies linked to debt contracted by municipalities, non-ENH SOE external debt, and the outstanding disputed government guarantees on commercial loans (VTB component of the Proindicus loan and MAM) . On the latter, the DSA update revises the assumed contingent liability down from around 7.5 percent of GDP to 3.4 percent of GDP, due to the authorities’ signed agreement with creditors holding the majority of the SOE Proindicus loan (Box 1) .5 Based on available information, contingencies associated with the debt contracted by municipalities, non-ENH SOE external debt contingencies, are estimated to be slightly above the default amount (at about 5 percent in total) .6 Accordingly, total contingent liability under the DSA update is reduced from 18.8 percent of GDP u","cbCaisariKb09vNl","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisariKb09vNl","pdf",735213,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk ratings and key conclusions\n## Overall and external debt distress risk\n## Forward-looking assessment and LNG repayment assumptions\n# Updates and drivers of risk\n## Disputed debt settlement implications\n## Downside and upside risk factors\n# Debt coverage and contingent liabilities\n## Scope of central government and SOE-related obligations\n## Contingent liability stress test revisions","[{\"question\":\"What are the main risk ratings for Mozambique’s debt distress in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk as High.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis remain unchanged compared with the July 2023 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Indicators remain above sustainability thresholds for several years under the baseline, and debt vulnerability to downside risks persists during the period.\"},{\"question\":\"How does LNG borrowing affect the assessment of public debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense because a large share of projected future borrowing is expected to be repaid directly from future LNG revenues.\"}]",1784489094,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-mozambique-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment-summary","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-mozambique-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment-summary/111205/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What are the main risk ratings for Mozambique’s debt distress in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk as High.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the analysis remain unchanged compared with the July 2023 DSA?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Indicators remain above sustainability thresholds for several years under the baseline, and debt vulnerability to downside risks persists during the period.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does LNG borrowing affect the assessment of public debt sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Public debt is assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense because a large share of projected future borrowing is expected to be repaid directly from future LNG revenues.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]