[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109762-en":3,"doc-seo-109762-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109762,687197207057,"Sage","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Moldova - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Joint World Bank–IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Moldova’s debt risks under a COVID-19 scenario and compares them with the March 2020 assessment. Results show low risk of external and overall debt distress, with external debt and public debt indicators staying below policy-relevant thresholds. Public debt dynamics remain sustainable, supported by fiscal discipline, use of reserve buffers, and official bilateral financing. The analysis projects a near-term increase in debt ratios and a medium-term return toward historical averages as growth rebounds and the current account deficit narrows.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Philip Gerson (EUR)  \n\n| Moldova: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nIn the COVID-19 scenario, Moldova’s risk of debt distress remains low—unchanged from the most recent Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in March 2020. Overall public debt dynamics are sustainable with space to absorb shocks (PV of total PPG debt-to-GDP ratio remains well below the debt distress benchmark of 70 percent) . Large near-term fiscal and external financing needs are assumed to be closed by drawing down existing reserve buffers and accessing official bilateral financing from Russia, World Bank resources and the use of Fund credit under the RCF/RFI blend. Both public and private sector external debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to increase in the short-term on the back of increased public sector borrowing and lower nominal GDP and to return to their historical averages in the medium term. In the long term, public investments are largely financed by concessional donor funding and after 2030 commercial borrowing. In view of the country’s significant vulnerability to shocks, fiscal discipline remains critical to safeguard sustainability. The current baseline reflects information available as of April 8, 2020, but the economic impact of the COVID-19 remains highly uncertain and policy response to the crisis is rapidly evolving; risks are heavily tilted to the downside.  \nThe macroeconomic assumptions of the DSA reflect economic developments related to the COVID-19 pandemic and policies underpinning the RCF/RFI. The COVID-19 scenario relies on the implementation of a fiscal stimulus program to mitigate the economic and social impact of the crisis and to support the recovery, while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability. Staff is recommending a targeted and temporary relaxation of the fiscal stance to accommodate widening of the general government deficit to 6.9 percent of GDP in 2020 in view of the shortfall in revenue and higher health and priority social expenditure. Real GDP is expected to contractby 3 percent, nearly 7 percentage points below the pre-pandemic baseline, largely due to sharp domestic and external demand contraction and supply shocks on account of aggressive virus containment measures (see Text Table 1). As of April 3rd, 2020, the lei depreciated modestly against the US dollar by 7.8 percent, while NBM has cut its policy rate by cumulative 175 basis points, reduced the MDL required reserve ratio from 40.5 to 34 percent, and increased the FX required reserve ratio from 18 to 19 percent. TheNBM has also intervened daily in the FX market since March 17th, 2020, selling cumulative of $153.5 million (1.4 percent of GDP) from its reserves. Automatic stabilizers should provide a cushion. The large external financing need—estimated at US$867 million in 2020—is expected to be fully closed by cautiously drawing down existing reserve buffers, official bilateral financing from Russia (US$220 million), World Bank resources (US$ 57.4 million) and the use of Fund credit under the RCF/RFI blend of SDR 172.5 million (US$ 236 million), disbursed for budget support1,2. Growth is expected to rebound in 2020H2 and remain solid at about 4 percent over the medium-term, with moderate inflation at around target, and a gradual narrowing of the current account deficit to about 7.7 percent of GDP, financed by strong capital and investment flows. The scenario includesthemostrecent ","cbCaijXMmEPqmwug","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijXMmEPqmwug","pdf",430219,3,1,12,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment Summary\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n## Judgment and granularity\n# Macroeconomic Scenario and Financing Assumptions\n## COVID-19 fiscal stimulus and policy responses\n## Growth, inflation, and current account projections\n## External financing closure and reserve buffers\n# Debt Sustainability Results\n## External debt indicators vs thresholds\n## Public debt dynamics and benchmarks\n## Debt service outlook","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk level for Moldova’s external debt distress in the April 2020 scenario?\",\"answer\":\"The risk of external debt distress remains low and is unchanged from the most recent Debt Sustainability Analysis published in March 2020.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis assume large near-term fiscal and external financing needs are covered?\",\"answer\":\"It assumes financing is closed by drawing down existing reserve buffers and using official bilateral financing, World Bank resources, and Fund credit under the RCF/RFI blend.\"},{\"question\":\"How are debt ratios expected to evolve in the short and medium term?\",\"answer\":\"Both public and private sector external debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to rise in the short term due to increased borrowing and weaker nominal GDP, then return to historical averages in the medium term.\"}]","Republic of Moldova - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784482260,30,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"republic-of-moldova-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-moldova-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109762/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-03","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the assessed risk level for Moldova’s external debt distress in the April 2020 scenario?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The risk of external debt distress remains low and is unchanged from the most recent Debt Sustainability Analysis published in March 2020.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why does the analysis assume large near-term fiscal and external financing needs are covered?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"It assumes financing is closed by drawing down existing reserve buffers and using official bilateral financing, World Bank resources, and Fund credit under the RCF/RFI blend.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How are debt ratios expected to evolve in the short and medium term?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Both public and private sector external debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to rise in the short term due to increased borrowing and weaker nominal GDP, then return to historical averages in the medium term.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":122},"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]