[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111097-en":3,"doc-seo-111097-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},111097,1099513958762,"Logic","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1000023916a998db790?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1784791008015729253",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Moldova - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk Assessment","Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Moldova’s external debt distress risk as low and overall public debt distress risk as moderate, maintaining the same ratings as the December 2022 DSA. Public debt is judged sustainable given a strong assessed debt-carrying capacity, despite increased financing needs to address the economic and humanitarian fallout of Russia’s Ukraine invasion and medium-term development spending. The public debt path remains vulnerable to shocks to real GDP growth, requiring continued reforms, prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program, improved governance, stronger spending effectiveness, and better management of fiscal risks, including those from SOEs, climate change, extreme weather, and energy shocks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Mark Horton and Jarkko Turunen (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Moldova at low risk of external debt distress and at moderate risk of overall public debt distress, unchanged from the December 2022 DSA. 1 Moldova’s public debt is considered sustainable with current debt carrying capacity assessed as strong.2 This is despite the increased financing needed to mitigate the economic and humanitarian fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and projected medium-term developmental spending needs. Overall, the public debt trajectory remains vulnerable to risks, particularly from shocks to real GDP growth, calling for broadening growth drivers, sustaining reform momentum, and remaining committed to prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program, while reducing longer-term risks stemming from climate change through the new RSF. In addition, improving governance, enhancing effectiveness of public spending, and strengthening management of fiscal risks, including from SOEs, are priorities to contain public debt vulnerabilities, as well as reducing vulnerabilities to extreme weather events and energy shocks.  \n1 The previous DSA, dated December 19, 2022, accompanied Moldova’s Staff Report for the second review under the ECF/EFF program, IMF Country Report No. 23/006 .  \n2 Moldova’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on the October 2023 WEO update and the WB’s 2022 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), indicates that the country’s debt carrying capacity remain strong (3 . 07) .  \n1. Moldova’s public debt includes obligations of the public sector (central government, local authorities, and public entities). Public debt includes external and domestic obligations, including arrears to suppliers and guaranteed debt. Domestic debt includes debt of state and municipal enterprises, companies with full or majority public ownership, and of local public authorities with maturity of a year and above, as stipulated in Law No. 419 (2006) on Public Sector Debt, State Guarantees and State Onlending.3  \n2. Debt contracted by the central government and central bank owed to the IMF is covered.4 Debt coverage is on residency basis.  \n|  |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central, state, and local governments plus social security, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |  |  |\n|  |  | Default | Used for the analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.\u003Cbr>SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/\u003Cbr>PPP\u003Cbr>Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) | 0 percent of GDP\u003Cbr>2 percent of GDP\u003Cbr>35 percent of PPP stock\u003Cbr>5 percent of GDP | 0.0\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>0.0\u003Cbr>10 |  |\n|  | Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 12.0 |  |  |  |\n| 1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country's public debt definition (1.) . If it is already included in the government debt (1.) and risks associated with SoE's debt not guaranteed by the government is assessed to be negligible, a country team may reduce this to 0% . |  |  |  |  |\n\n3 PPG debt covers gross debt of the general government. SOE debt in Moldova is primarily driven by externally financed project loans that are on-lent by the central government to SOEs. Both on-lending to the private s","cbCaisbDo5MeIBGs","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisbDo5MeIBGs","pdf",858342,4,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Application of judgment\n# Assessment rationale and priorities\n## Debt sustainability and debt carrying capacity\n## Growth shocks, reforms, and fiscal policy\n## Governance and fiscal risk management","[{\"question\":\"What is Moldova’s assessed risk level for external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA rates Moldova’s risk of external debt distress as low.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report rate overall risk of public debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the DSA say Moldova’s public debt remains vulnerable despite sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Vulnerabilities persist due to potential shocks to real GDP growth, alongside needs for continued reforms and prudent fiscal policy, and exposure to climate-related and energy-related risks.\"}]","Republic of Moldova - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk Assessment | PDF",1784488568,50,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment/111097/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is Moldova’s assessed risk level for external debt distress?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The DSA rates Moldova’s risk of external debt distress as low.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How does the report rate overall risk of public debt distress?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated as moderate.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Why does the DSA say Moldova’s public debt remains vulnerable despite sustainability?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Vulnerabilities persist due to potential shocks to real GDP growth, alongside needs for continued reforms and prudent fiscal policy, and exposure to climate-related and energy-related risks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,115,120,123,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":114},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]