[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110381-en":3,"doc-seo-110381-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110381,137441390410,"Hazel","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Moldova - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Public debt risk assessment","The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) evaluates Moldova’s external and public debt outlook, concluding low risk of external debt distress and moderate overall risk of debt distress, unchanged from the May 2022 assessment. Public debt is considered sustainable under the current strong debt-carrying capacity, even as financing needs are expected to rise to address the economic and humanitarian fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and medium-term developmental spending requirements. The report highlights vulnerability to shocks to real GDP growth and emphasizes broadening growth drivers and maintaining prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nLalita Moorty and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Julie Kozack and Maria Gonzales (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not Applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Moldova at low risk of external debt distress and overall public debt at moderate risk of distress, unchanged from the May 2022 DSA.1 Moldova’s public debt is considered sustainable with current debt carrying capacity assessed as strong,2 despite the envisaged increasing financing needs to mitigate the economic and humanitarian fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine , and the projected medium-term developmental spending needs. Overall, the public debt trajectory remains vulnerable to risks, particularly from shocks to real GDP growth, calling for the need to broaden growth drivers and to remain committed to prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program. In addition, improving governance, enhancing the effectiveness of public spending, and strengthening the management of fiscal risks, including those stemming from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), are priorities to contain public debt vulnerabilities.  \n.  \n1 The previous DSA, dated May 3, 2022, accompanied Moldova’s Staff Report for an Ad Hoc review under the ECF/EFF program and request for augmentation and rephasing of access, modification of performance criteria and completion of the inflation consultation, IMF Country Report No. 22/140 .  \n2 Moldova’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on October 2022 WEO update and the World Bank’s 2021 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), indicates that the country’s debt carrying capacity remain strong (3 . 11) .  \n1. Moldova’s public debt includes obligations of the public sector (central government, local authorities, and public entities) . Public debt includes external and domestic obligations of the central government, including arrears to suppliers and guaranteed debt. Domestic debt includes debt of state and municipal enterprises, companies with full or majority public ownership, and of local public authorities with maturity of a year and above, as stipulated in Law No. 419 (2006) on Public Sector Debt, State Guaranteesand State On-lending.3 Debt contracted by the central government and central bank owed to the IMF is also covered.4 The debt coverage is on the residency basis.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n|  |\n\n2. Public debt declined in 2021 to 33.2 percent of GDP, from almost 34 percent of GDP in 2020, reflecting unwinding of the pandemic-induced increase in borrowing and the denominator effect from strong GDP. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt reached almost 34 percent of GDP in 2015 up from about 27 percent of GDP in 2010 (Text Figure 1) . A key driver of the spike in the public debt was the issuance of a state guarantee to the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) to provide emergency liquidity to the banking sector. During 2016–19, public debt was on a downward trend, returning towards the level seen in 2010. However, in 2020, COVID pandemic-induced borrowing pushed up public debt, driven by  \n3 PPG debt covers gross debt of the general government. SOE debt in Moldova is primarily driven by externally financed project loans that are on-lent by the central government to SOEs. Both on-lending to the private sector (operationalized through commercial banks) and to SOEs are part of public guarantees and are included in the central government debt. Nonguaranteed SOEs debt is also included in the public debt. Debt of SOEs with maturity longer than a year accounts for about  \n2 percent of GDP as of 2021. Staff and the authorities will define an agenda wit","cbCaifvwZFQl5CCK","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifvwZFQl5CCK","pdf",680357,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings\n# Debt sustainability assessment assumptions and priorities\n# Public debt trends and drivers\n# External debt trends and主要影响因素","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Moldova?\",\"answer\":\"Moldova is assessed as being at low risk of external debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the analysis rate the overall risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated as moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is Moldova’s public debt considered vulnerable despite sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"It remains vulnerable to risks, especially shocks to real GDP growth, and therefore requires sustained prudent fiscal policy and measures to strengthen governance and fiscal risk management.\"}]",1784485164,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-public-debt-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-public-debt-risk-assessment/110381/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Moldova?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Moldova is assessed as being at low risk of external debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"How does the analysis rate the overall risk of debt distress?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated as moderate.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Why is Moldova’s public debt considered vulnerable despite sustainability?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"It remains vulnerable to risks, especially shocks to real GDP growth, and therefore requires sustained prudent fiscal policy and measures to strengthen governance and fiscal risk management.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,113,118,121,125,128,132],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":112},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":114,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":115,"show_sort_weight":116,"slug":117},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},30,"research-report",{"id":122,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":123,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":124},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":127},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":129,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":131},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":135},19,"General","general"]