[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111400-en":3,"doc-seo-111400-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111400,4398048950312,"Violet","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/400002538284de19e3c?_k=1778320343897328908",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Moldova - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) evaluates the Republic of Moldova’s external and overall public debt risks, concluding low risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall public debt distress, unchanged from the previous assessment. Public debt is considered sustainable under a strong assessed debt-carrying capacity, while the public debt path remains vulnerable to shocks, especially weaker real GDP growth. Priority actions include widening growth drivers, accelerating reforms, strengthening governance, improving public investment and budget execution, and managing fiscal risks, including those arising from SOEs and contingent liabilities. ","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Asa Alam (IDA) , and Mark Horton and Jarkko Turunen (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThis Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Moldova at low risk of external debt distress and at moderate risk of overall public debt distress, unchanged from the previous assessment. 1 Moldova’s public debt is considered sustainable with current debt carrying capacity assessed as strong.2 Overall, the public debt trajectory remains vulnerable to risks, particularly from shocks to real GDP growth, calling for broadening growth drivers and enhancing reform momentum. In addition, improving governance, enhancing effectiveness of public spending—especially public investment and budget execution—and strengthening management of fiscal risks, including from SOEs, are priorities for reducing vulnerabilities.  \n1 The previous DSA (dated December 2024) accompanied the Staff Report for the Sixth Reviews under the ECF/EFF and the Second Review under the RSF.  \n2 Moldova’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on the October 2025 WEO update and the World Bank 2024 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), indicates that the debt carrying capacity remains strong (3 .055), but close to the lower bound of 3.05 of strong debt carrying capacity.  \n1. Moldova’s public debt includes obligations of the public sector—central government, local authorities, public entities—as in the previous DSA.3 Public debt comprises external and domestic obligations, including arrears to suppliers and guaranteed debt. Debt coverage includes debt of state and municipal enterprises, of companies with full or majority public ownership, and of local public authorities with maturity of a year and above, as stipulated in Law No. 419 (2006) on Public Sector Debt, State Guarantees and State On-lending.4 Debt contracted and owed to the IMF by the central government and the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) is also covered. Debt coverage is on residency basis.  \n3 As in the past, data exclude the Transnistrian region.  \n4 PPG debt covers gross debt of the general government. SOE debt is primarily driven by externally financed project loans that are on-lent by the central government. Both on-lending to the private sector (through commercial banks) and to SOEs are part of public guarantees and are included in central government debt. Non-guaranteed SOEs debt is also included in public debt. Debt of SOEs with maturity longer than one year accounted for less than 2 percent of GDP as of 2022. The authorities continue to take concrete steps towards expanding debt coverage for local governments’ debt, SOEs and PPPsto include all existing debt obligations. Due to the lack of data, information on PPPs is currently limited. Change in coverage complicates intertemporal analysis of PPG debt. The contingent liabilities shock from SOE debt is set at the default value of  \n2 percent of GDP to reflect risks associated with borrowing of SOEs majority owned by the state, while a default contingent liability shock of 5 percent of GDP is meant to capture risks from the financial market.  \n2. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt increased to 38.8 percent of GDP in 2024 from 36.3 percent of GDP in 2023. PPG debt had earlier peaked at 37.6 percent of GDP in 2016, up from 27 percent of GDP in 2012. A key driver of the earlier increase was issuance of a state guarantee to the NBM to provide emergency liquidity to the banking sector in the context of the 2014–15 banking crisis. Debt was then on a downward trend until 2019. In 2020, COVID-related borrowing","cbCaiidThg6azyva","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiidThg6azyva","pdf",1140395,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n## Debt coverage scope and methodology\n## Key vulnerability drivers and policy priorities\n## Recent debt ratio trends and composition\n## Gross external debt dynamics","[{\"question\":\"What does the DSA conclude about Moldova’s external debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA classifies Moldova’s risk of external debt distress as low.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the DSA assess Moldova’s overall public debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"It classifies the overall risk of debt distress as moderate and notes that vulnerability remains despite sustainability under current debt-carrying capacity.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors make Moldova’s public debt trajectory vulnerable?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis highlights sensitivity to shocks to real GDP growth, alongside the need to broaden growth drivers and strengthen reform momentum.\"}]",1784489958,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111400/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What does the DSA conclude about Moldova’s external debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The DSA classifies Moldova’s risk of external debt distress as low.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How does the DSA assess Moldova’s overall public debt distress risk?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"It classifies the overall risk of debt distress as moderate and notes that vulnerability remains despite sustainability under current debt-carrying capacity.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which factors make Moldova’s public debt trajectory vulnerable?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The analysis highlights sensitivity to shocks to real GDP growth, alongside the need to broaden growth drivers and strengthen reform momentum.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]