[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111087-en":3,"doc-seo-111087-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111087,1099513958762,"Logic","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1000023916a998db790?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1784791008015729253",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Moldova - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment","Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses Moldova’s external debt distress risk as low and overall public debt distress risk as moderate, unchanged from the prior assessment. Public debt is considered sustainable under a strong current debt carrying capacity, yet the public debt path remains vulnerable to shocks to real GDP growth. Priorities include broadening growth drivers, sustaining reform momentum, maintaining prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program, and reducing longer-term risks from climate change through the RSF arrangement.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Asad Alam (IDA) , and Mark Horton and Jarkko Turunen (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Moldova at low risk of external debt distress and at moderate risk of overall public debt distress, unchanged from the previous assessment.1 Moldova’s public debt is considered sustainable with current debt carrying capacity assessed as strong.2 Overall, the public debt trajectory remains vulnerable to risks, particularly from shocks to real GDP growth, calling for broadening growth drivers, sustaining reform momentum, and remaining committed to prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program, while reducing longer-term risks stemming from climate change through the RSF arrangement. In addition, improving governance, enhancing effectiveness of public spending—especially public investment—and strengthening management of fiscal risks, including from SOEs, are priorities to contain public debt vulnerabilities and reducing vulnerabilities to extreme weather events and energy shocks.  \n1 The previous DSA, dated November 21, 2023, accompanied Moldova’s Staff Report for the Fourth Reviews under the ECF/EFF and the request for an arrangement under the RSF.  \n2 Moldova’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on the October 2024 WEO update and the World Bank 2023 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), indicates that the country’s debt carrying capacity remains strong (3 .08) and unchanged from the previous DSA, but close to the lower bound of 3.05 of strong debt carrying capacity signaling.  \n1. Moldova’s public debt includes obligations of the public sector (central government, local authorities, and public entities) as in the previous DSA. Public debt includes external and domestic obligations, including arrears to suppliers and guaranteed debt. Debt coverage includes debt of state and municipal enterprises, of companies with full or majority public ownership, and of local public authorities with maturity of a year and above, as stipulated in Law No. 419 (2006) on Public Sector Debt, State Guarantees and State On-lending.3 Debt contracted by the central government and central bank owed to the IMF is also covered.4 Debt coverage is on residency basis.  \n|  | Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt | Check box |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 |  | X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X |\n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central, state, and local governments plus social security, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | Default | Used for the analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. | 0 percent of GDP | 0.0 |  |\n| 3 | SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ | 2 percent of GDP | 2 |  |\n| 4 | PPP | 35 percent of PPP stock | 0.0 |  |\n| 5 | Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) | 5 percent of GDP | 10 |  |\n|  | Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 12.0 |  |  |  |\n\n1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the co","cbCaiuULINnCvdGV","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiuULINnCvdGV","pdf",2869849,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall public debt distress risk\n## Judgment and granularity","[{\"question\":\"What is Moldova’s assessed risk level for external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"External debt distress risk is rated as low.\"},{\"question\":\"How does Moldova’s overall risk of debt distress compare with the previous assessment?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk is rated as moderate and remains unchanged from the previous assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is Moldova’s overall public debt trajectory considered vulnerable despite sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"The trajectory remains vulnerable to shocks to real GDP growth, requiring growth driver broadening, reform momentum, and prudent fiscal 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is Moldova’s assessed risk level for external debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External debt distress risk is rated as low.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How does Moldova’s overall risk of debt distress compare with the previous assessment?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The overall risk is rated as moderate and remains unchanged from the previous assessment.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why is Moldova’s overall public debt trajectory considered vulnerable despite sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The trajectory remains vulnerable to shocks to real GDP growth, requiring growth driver broadening, reform momentum, and prudent fiscal 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