[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110054-en":3,"doc-seo-110054-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110054,1099513958607,"Jiven","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002390cf8733938c?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778829742770036399",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Moldova - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Republic of Moldova’s risk of external debt distress remains low, while the overall risk of debt distress is reclassified to moderate. The baseline keeps the PV of public debt-to-GDP below the indicative threshold, but a real GDP growth shock triggers a sustained breach. External debt indicators remain below thresholds under both baseline and shock scenarios. Public debt is assessed as sustainable due to strong debt-carrying capacity, despite COVID-driven increases in 2020 and rising financing needs amid the Ukraine war and longer-term developmental spending.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nLalita M. Moorty and Marcello Estevão (IDA) , Philip Gerson and Maria Gonzales (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA : JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMoldova’s risk of external debt distress remains low but overall risk of debt distress has been reclassified to moderate, down from low risk in the December 2021 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) .1 This is because the present value (PV) of public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the indicative threshold under the baseline scenario but exhibits a sustained breach of the threshold under a real GDP growth shock scenario. All the external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds under the baseline and shock scenarios. Overall, public debt is considered sustainable with current debt carrying capacity assessed as strong,2 despite the COVID pandemic-induced increase in public debt in 2020 coupled with envisaged increasing financing needs to mitigate the economic and humanitarian fallout of the war in Ukraine, and the projected medium-term developmental spending needs. This assessment reflects a baseline which assumes that the authorities remain committed to prudent fiscal policy under the ECF/EFF program. In the long term, the financing mix is expected to shift from concessional to commercial borrowing by 2032. Private  \nsector external debt remains relatively high, compared to peers , which could pose significant risks to external debt sustainability. The public debt trajectory remains vulnerable to risks, particularly from shocks to real GDP growth, calling for the need to broaden growth drivers. In addition, improving governance, enhancing the effectiveness of public spending, and strengthening the management of fiscal risks, including those stemming from state-owned enterprises, are priorities to contain public debt vulnerabilities.  \n1. Moldova’s public debt includes obligations of the public sector (central government, local authorities, and public entities) . Public debt includes external and domestic obligations of the central government, including arrears to suppliers and guaranteed debt. Domestic debt includes debt of state and municipal enterprises, companies with full or majority public ownership, and of local public authorities with maturity of a year and above, as stipulated in Law No. 419 (2006) on Public Sector Debt, State Guaranteesand State On-lending.3 Debt contracted by the central government and central bank owed to the IMF is also covered.4 The debt coverage is on the residency basis.  \n2. Public debt declined in 2021 to 32.5 percent of GDP, from almost 34 percent of GDP in 2020, reflecting unwinding of the pandemic-induced increase in borrowing and the denominator effect from strong GDP. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt reached about 40 percent of GDP in 2015 up from about 27 percent of GDP in 2010 (Text Figure 1) . A key driver of the spike in the public debt was the issuance of a state guarantee to the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) to provide emergency liquidity to the banking sector. During 2016–19, public debt was on a downward trend, returning towards the level seen in 2010. In 2019, after almost a year of a deadlock over concerns about governance and deteriorating democratic standards during the pre-election campaign, the EU and other donors resumed their financial assistance to Moldova. However, in 2020, COVID pandemic-induced borrowing pushed up public debt, driven by increases in both domestic and external debt (Text Table 2) .5 A rebound in strong economic activity and receding tailwinds from COVID-19 reduced government spending and borrowing ","cbCaif6UZsv7j29W","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaif6UZsv7j29W","pdf",975304,4,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Debt distress risk ratings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk and reclassification\n# Drivers and scenarios\n## Baseline scenario thresholds\n## Real GDP growth shock breach\n# Debt sustainability assessment\n## Debt carrying capacity\n## Financing mix and vulnerabilities\n# Debt composition and historical context\n## Public and publicly guaranteed debt trends\n## External creditor structure\n# Debt service and creditor breakdown","[{\"question\":\"Why was Moldova’s overall debt distress risk reclassified to moderate?\",\"answer\":\"Although the baseline keeps the PV of public debt-to-GDP below the threshold, a real GDP growth shock leads to a sustained breach, prompting the reclassification from low to moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"How do external debt indicators perform under the baseline and shock scenarios?\",\"answer\":\"All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds in both the baseline and the shock scenarios.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors support the conclusion that public debt is sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment cites strong debt-carrying capacity, alongside priorities to broaden growth drivers and strengthen governance and fiscal risk management, even with COVID- and war-related financing pressures.\"}]","Republic of Moldova - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment | PDF",1784483688,50,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-moldova-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/110054/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"Why was Moldova’s overall debt distress risk reclassified to moderate?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Although the baseline keeps the PV of public debt-to-GDP below the threshold, a real GDP growth shock leads to a sustained breach, prompting the reclassification from low to moderate.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How do external debt indicators perform under the baseline and shock scenarios?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds in both the baseline and the shock scenarios.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What factors support the conclusion that public debt is sustainable?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The assessment cites strong debt-carrying capacity, alongside priorities to broaden growth drivers and strengthen governance and fiscal risk management, even with COVID- and war-related financing pressures.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,115,120,123,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":114},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]