[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109741-en":3,"doc-seo-109741-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109741,1099514067438,"River Wang","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539ee87300030?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780474512215547542",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - July 2020","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis assesses Madagascar’s external and overall public debt risks under a COVID-19–adjusted baseline. The report classifies Madagascar, with medium debt-carrying capacity, as facing moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate risk overall. While baseline projections avoid breaching external PPG thresholds, export shocks breach the 18% debt service-to-revenue threshold in 2026. Commodity price shocks push the PV of debt-to-GDP above benchmarks, and liquidity pressures may arise under long-term growth shocks.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nREPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nJuly 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), David Owen and ZuzanaMurgasova (IMF)  \n\n| Republic of Madagascar: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks. |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | This DSA update accounts for the expected severe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic—namely, a sizable decline in growth, tourism, and goods trade, with an accompanying increase in fiscal and current account deficits in 2020. Compared to the COVID-19 shock scenario included in the April 2020 expedited DSA, the baseline assumes a more persistent shock in 2020 and a partial rebound in 2021. In particular, relative to the prior baseline, 2020 growth has been revised down by-2.6 ppts to-1.0 percent, with a decline in the domestic primary balance1 from-1.4 to-3.3 percent of GDP. In addition, the current account deficit is expected to reach-3.6 percent of GDP vs. -2.5 percent of GDP in the prior baseline. Over the medium term, we project some fallout on exports as firm closures and supply chain disruptions result in more protracted negative effects on exports (especially textiles) and remain conservative with respect to tax revenue projections. |\n| Financing strategy | For external financing, the share of external to total debt does not exceed the authorities’ upper limit of 85 percent and, while use of concessional loans is maximized in the near term, the portfolio of new external financing is expected to shift towards a more balanced distribution of concessional and non-concessional debt over the medium to long term. For domestic financing, short-term local currency treasury bills will remain the main source of financing over the long term. However, medium-term local currency bond issuance is expected to scale up overtime, but from a low base (15 percent of locally issued debt). |\n| Realism tools flagged | n/a |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | Moderate |\n| 1 Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment and grants. Commitment basis. |  |\n\nMadagascar, classified as having a medium debt carrying capacity, is assessed at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks and moderate risk of overall debt distress. This assessment is a change from Madagascar’s prior risk assessment of low risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall debt distress in the DSA that was published in March 2020 (and subsequently confirmed in the April 2020 expedited DSA) .21 In this assessment:  \n• While the COVID-19 adjusted baseline does not breach any external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt thresholds, under an export shock the debt service-torevenue ratio breaches the 18 percent threshold in 2026, rising to 21 percent. This corresponds to a peak in debt service to the IMF (with planned RCF and ECF repayments), projected to reach more than 4.5 percent of government revenue in 2026 and 2027 before decreasing to 2 percent in 2029. The default settings are applied for the export shock, whose size and impact on growth broadly match the effect of the simultaneous global financial and domestic political crises in Madagascar in 2009, hence delivering the most severe stress scenario in this DSA.  \n• The overall (external plus domestic) risk of debt distress remains moderate. Total public debt is below the benchmark under baseline, but a commodity price shock drives the present value of debt to GDP above the benc","cbCaiqPgMZ4fo6kZ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqPgMZ4fo6kZ","pdf",1806454,4,1,13,"English","en",105,"# Overview and risk assessment\n## External debt distress and overall debt distress\n## COVID-19 adjusted baseline and macroeconomic projections\n## Stress tests, thresholds, and benchmarks\n# Financing strategy and policy considerations\n## External and domestic financing mix\n## DSSI participation and debt relief assumptions","[{\"question\":\"What risk level does the analysis assign to Madagascar’s external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The report finds moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate overall risk of debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Does the COVID-19 adjusted baseline breach external PPG debt thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"No. The baseline does not breach external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"When do key threshold breaches occur, and under which scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Under an export shock, the debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches the 18% threshold in 2026, rising to 21%. A commodity price shock drives the PV of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark by the end of the projection period.\"}]","Republic of Madagascar - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - July 2020 | PDF",1784482171,33,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"republic-of-madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-july-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-madagascar-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-july-2020/109741/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What risk level does the analysis assign to Madagascar’s external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The report finds moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate overall risk of debt distress.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Does the COVID-19 adjusted baseline breach external PPG debt thresholds?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"No. The baseline does not breach external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt thresholds.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"When do key threshold breaches occur, and under which scenario?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Under an export shock, the debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches the 18% threshold in 2026, rising to 21%. A commodity price shock drives the PV of debt-to-GDP above the benchmark by the end of the projection period.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]