[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111410-en":3,"doc-seo-111410-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111410,4398048950312,"Violet","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/400002538284de19e3c?_k=1778320343897328908",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Madagascar - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk Summary","Assessment indicates Madagascar faces a moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the June 2024 debt sustainability analysis. Under the baseline, no external public and publicly guaranteed debt ratios breach thresholds, while an export shock alone pushes the present-value external-debt-to-export ratio above its threshold. Overall risk remains “moderate” because the overall present-value debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark under a commodity price shock. Debt metrics are projected to stabilize over the medium term with specific near-term pressures and reform-linked assumptions.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Hassan Zaman (IDA), and Costas Christou and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)1  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMadagascar is assessed at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the assessment of the last DSA in June 2024.2 Under the baseline, no external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt ratios breach their thresholds and only a shock to exports pushes Madagascar’s present value of external-debt-to-export ratio above the threshold. Likewise, the overall risk of debt distress continues to be assessed as “moderate”, since the overall present value of debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark under a commodity price shock (the latter being the most extreme shock) . The granularity assessment shows that the government continues to have some space to absorb shocks. The public-debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to stabilize around 54 percent in the medium term. Following a spike in short-term domestic public borrowing in 2024, the debt-service-to-revenue-and-grants ratio is projected to peak in 2025 and decline thereafter. The assessment assumes continued progress on reforms agreed to under the IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), as well as the World Bank Equitable and Resilient Growth Development Policy Operation. Risks remain tilted to the downside, with potential delays in JIRAMA’s recovery and domestic revenue mobilization burdening public finances.  \n1 Prepared by the IMF and the World Bank. This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries  , February 2018, the Guidance Note for Fund Staff on the Treatment and Use of SDR Allocations , August 2021, and the Supplement to 2018 Guidance Note on Bank Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries  , August 2024.  \n2 Madagascar’s debt-carrying capacity is assessed as “medium” as in the previous DSA with a composite index (CI) score of  \n2.82, which is based on the October 2024 WEO and the 2023 CPIA.  \n1. The DSA includes public and publicly guaranteed external and domestic debt. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt comprises external and domestic debt in a fairly comprehensive manner, including: central, state and local government debt; all external liabilities owed by the central bank; all borrowing from the IMF; non-guaranteed domestic debts owed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in cases where the government has at least 50 percent of the shares (e.g. , JIRAMA and Air Madagascar); 3 domestic arrears;4 external legacy arrears of about 1.3 percent of GDP (related to HIPC);5 and guarantees provided by the central government (Text Table 1) . The measure of debt is on a gross basis and the currency criterion is used to distinguish between domestic and external debt.6 The authorities publish data on a quarterly basis on both domestic and external debt. Reporting of debt statistics on public enterprises needs to be strengthened further, particularly by: (i) requiring all public enterprises to submit timely financial statements to the Ministry of Finance7 ; (ii) compiling public enterprises debt statistics and monitoringrelated risks; and (iii) publishing this information online in budget documents and fiscal risk statements.8  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w","cbCaiv4WqU0W8pEd","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiv4WqU0W8pEd","pdf",734651,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment summary\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n## Shock sensitivity and judgment\n# Debt outlook and key ratios\n## Public debt-to-GDP stabilization\n## Debt-service-to-revenue projection\n## Reform assumptions and risks\n# Scope and methodology of the DSA\n## Coverage of public and publicly guaranteed debt\n## Data reporting and strengthening needs\n## Notes on arrears and debt classification","[{\"question\":\"Why is Madagascar assessed as having moderate risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Madagascar is assessed at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress. Baseline ratios do not breach thresholds, but specific shocks (exports for external debt and commodity prices for overall debt) drive benchmark breaches.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shock most affects the external-debt-to-export threshold?\",\"answer\":\"A shock to exports is the key driver, pushing Madagascar’s present value of external-debt-to-export ratio above the threshold.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the main projected debt indicators mentioned in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The public-debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to stabilize around 54 percent in the medium term. After a 2024 borrowing spike, the debt-service-to-revenue-and-grants ratio is projected to peak in 2025 and decline thereafter.\"}]",1784489996,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-madagascar-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-summary","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-madagascar-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-summary/111410/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why is Madagascar assessed as having moderate risk of debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Madagascar is assessed at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress. Baseline ratios do not breach thresholds, but specific shocks (exports for external debt and commodity prices for overall debt) drive benchmark breaches.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which shock most affects the external-debt-to-export threshold?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"A shock to exports is the key driver, pushing Madagascar’s present value of external-debt-to-export ratio above the threshold.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What are the main projected debt indicators mentioned in the analysis?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The public-debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to stabilize around 54 percent in the medium term. After a 2024 borrowing spike, the debt-service-to-revenue-and-grants ratio is projected to peak in 2025 and decline thereafter.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]