[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110132-en":3,"doc-seo-110132-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110132,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Madagascar - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk of debt distress","Republic of Madagascar is assessed as having medium debt-carrying capacity, with a moderate risk of external debt distress and a moderate overall risk of debt distress (external plus domestic). The assessment remains unchanged from the program request and first review: export shocks could push key debt-burden indicators above thresholds, yet baseline projections show no breach of external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt ratio thresholds. Space exists to absorb additional shocks, though risks are skewed downward due to social and political volatility ahead of the 2023 elections and the heightened chance of contingent liabilities materializing faster than expected. The debt measure covers gross external and domestic liabilities and includes centrally guaranteed and central-bank borrowing, with ongoing needs to strengthen reporting by public enterprises.","Public Disclosure  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Costas Christou and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nMadagascar, classified as having medium debt carrying capacity, is still assessed at moderate risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of overall (external plus domestic) debt distress. This is unchanged from the assessment at the time of the program request and first review. We continue to assess Madagascar’s risk of external debt distress as “moderate” as a shock to exports pushes Madagascar’s debt (burden) indicators above the relevant thresholds, but no external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt ratios breach their thresholds under the baseline. , while its debt-carrying capacity rests near the lower end of the medium-range. The overall risk of debt distress continues to be assessed as “moderate” as well, since the overall debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark under various stress scenarios. The government has some space to scale-up investment, assuming ongoing efforts to improve domestic resource mobilization, continued reliance on concessional external financing, and progress in developing domestic bond markets and in the implementation of the governance reform agenda. Risks remain tilted to the downside, including social and political volatility ahead of the 2023 presidential elections and the heightened risk of a materialization of contingent liabilities, which could lead to a faster than expected deterioration in external and public debt indicators. However, the distance to risk thresholds under current baseline projections suggests some space to absorb additional shocks.  \n1 Prepared by the IMF and the World Bank. This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries , February 2018.  \n2 Madagascar’s Composite Indicator (CI) is 2.77, which corresponds to a medium debt-carrying capacity as confirmed by the October 2022 WEO data and the 2021 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \n1. The DSA includes public and publicly guaranteed external and domestic debt. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt comprises external and domestic debt in a fairly comprehensive manner, including: all external liabilities owed by the central bank; all borrowing from the IMF; government guarantees (such as the US$ 20 million or 0.13 percent of GDP guarantee to Air Madagascar for the leasing of new aircrafts reported in the 2023 budget law); non-guaranteed domestic debts owed by stateowned enterprises (SOEs) in cases where the government has at least 50 percent of the shares (e.g. , JIRAMA and Air Madagascar);3 domestic arrears (which increased from 0.25 percent of GDP in 2021 to about 1.8 percent of GDP in 2022 as a result of a dispute with oil distributors during which oil distributors withheld the payment of oil taxes );4 external legacy arrears of about 1.4 percent of GDP (related to HIPC); 5 and direct guarantees provided by the central government (Text Table 1) . Borrowing by local governments requires the authorization from the Ministry of Finance and no request for such authorization has been submitted to date. The measure of debt is on a gross basis and the currency criterion is used to distinguish between domestic and external debt.6 The authorities publish data on a quarterly basis on both domestic and external debt. Reporting of debt statistics on public enterprises needs to be strengthened further, particularly by: (i) requiring all public enterprises to submit financial statements to the Mi","cbCaiqZkV2BM3J7p","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqZkV2BM3J7p","pdf",690539,2,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk rating summary\n## Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Granularity and judgment\n# Debt scope and definitions\n## Coverage of external and domestic PPG debt\n## Contingent liabilities shock\n## Data and reporting requirements\n# Key drivers and outlook\n## Export shock and threshold breaches\n## Space to absorb shocks\n## Downside risks and election-related volatility","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Madagascar?\",\"answer\":\"Madagascar’s risk of external debt distress is assessed as “moderate.” Export shocks could push debt-burden indicators above thresholds, but baseline PPG external debt ratios do not breach thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the overall risk of debt distress also rated “moderate”?\",\"answer\":\"The overall rating remains “moderate” because the overall debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark under various stress scenarios, even though no external PPG ratios breach thresholds under the baseline.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors create downside risks to the debt outlook?\",\"answer\":\"Risks are tilted downward due to social and political volatility ahead of the 2023 presidential elections and an elevated risk that contingent liabilities materialize, potentially worsening external and public debt indicators faster than expected.\"}]","Republic of Madagascar - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk of debt distress | PDF",1784484041,50,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"republic-of-madagascar-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,48,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-madagascar-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-of-debt-distress/110132/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the assessed risk of external debt distress for Madagascar?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Madagascar’s risk of external debt distress is assessed as “moderate.” Export shocks could push debt-burden indicators above thresholds, but baseline PPG external debt ratios do not breach thresholds.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why is the overall risk of debt distress also rated “moderate”?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The overall rating remains “moderate” because the overall debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark under various stress scenarios, even though no external PPG ratios breach thresholds under the baseline.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What factors create downside risks to the debt outlook?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Risks are tilted downward due to social and political volatility ahead of the 2023 presidential elections and an elevated risk that contingent liabilities materialize, potentially worsening external and public debt indicators faster than expected.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,115,120,123,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":114},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]