[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111418-en":3,"doc-seo-111418-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111418,4398048950312,"Violet","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/400002538284de19e3c?_k=1778320343897328908",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Congo - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment and outlook to 2030","Republic of Congo’s overall and external debt are classified as “in distress,” driven by ongoing restructuring, audit processes, and persistent accumulation of domestic arrears alongside recurrent temporary external arrears. End-February 2026 estimates show new external arrears to official creditors and arrears to commercial creditors reinforcing this rating. Debt is also assessed as “sustainable” with high associated risks, hinging on progress in debt management, fiscal discipline, arrears resolution, and improving liquidity and solvency indicators by 2030.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Stéphane Roudet and Niamh Sheridan (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF CONGO: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe overall and external debt 1 of the Republic of Congo are classified as “in distress”, reflecting the ongoing restructuring, audit, and accumulation of domestic arrears as a result of liquidity pressures, as well as the recurrent accumulation of temporary external arrears. Preliminary data suggest that as of end-February 2026, USD103 .2 million (0 .66 percent of GDP) new external arrears to official creditors were accumulated and additional USD149 .6 million (0 .96 percent of GDP) arrears to commercial creditors were recognized. This reinforces the in-debt distress rating for external and overall debt. Debt is assessed as “sustainable”, but with high risks surrounding this assessment (see below) .  \nProgress to improve debt management (including the authorities’ resolve to prioritize concessional loans), adhere to fiscal discipline, and resolve and prevent arrears are needed to help all external liquidity and solvency indicators fall below their thresholds by 2030 under the baseline scenario.2 The 2024 domestic debt reprofiling and related maturity  \n1 Most of the external debt is defined on a currency basis, except for the creditors whose residency can be tracked, which are defined on a residency basis. An example is the Regional Development Bank, BDEAC.  \n2 The composite index (CI), estimated at 2.5 and based on the January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update and 2024 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data, indicates a weak debt carrying capacity for Congo, below IDA average.  \nextensions partly postponed the amortization of government Treasury obligations amid persistent debt service pressures, including the domestic debt amortization peak in October 2025. The proceeds of new eurobonds issued in November and December 2025 are intended to fund exclusively an equivalent amount of debt service on domestic treasuries maturing from November 2025 to February 2026.3 Nonetheless, these debt operations highlight Congo’s continued liquidity constraints and pose challenges for debt management. Elevated liquidity pressures and debt vulnerabilities could, if unaddressed, evolve into medium-term financing pressures and intensify the risks to debt sustainability. Several factors will help reduce the high debt-to-GDP ratio and recurrence of arrears over the medium term, including softer but still robust oil prices in the near term (based on the October 2025 WEO assumptions) and resilient non-hydrocarbon growth supported by faster progress in the implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda.  \nNevertheless, there are major overall and external debt-related risks, as signaled by the PV of the public debt-to-GDP indicator exceeding its benchmark through 2036 as well as recurring accumulation of external arrears.4 Both domestic debt solvency and liquidity indicators point to debt vulnerabilities in the medium term. Even though the PV of overall public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark extensively, debt is assessed as sustainable given that the risks are mitigated by (i) steady and significant declines in the relevant ratios going forward; and (ii) authorities’ commitment to increase government deposits at the Central Bank over the medium term. However, this assessment assumes continued steady fiscal consolidation. The significant fiscal slippages in 2025 therefore underscore the significant risks around this sustainability assessment.  \nThere are several oth","cbCaie4Gd46sUV3O","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaie4Gd46sUV3O","pdf",1007653,1,34,"English","en",105,"# Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Risk granularity and judgment application\n# Drivers of the distress classification\n## Accumulation of domestic and external arrears\n## Eurobond proceeds and domestic debt operations\n# Medium-term outlook and risk mitigation\n## Baseline progress needed by 2030\n## Factors affecting debt ratios and arrears recurrence\n# Key vulnerabilities and forward policy priorities","[{\"question\":\"How is Congo’s debt risk classified in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Both overall and external debt risks are classified as “in distress.” The granularity in the risk rating is “Sustainable,” with high risks surrounding that assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"What explains the accumulation of arrears mentioned in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The distress reflects ongoing restructuring, audit work, and liquidity pressures that contribute to domestic arrears, as well as recurrent accumulation of temporary external arrears.\"},{\"question\":\"What actions are recommended to improve debt management outcomes by 2030?\",\"answer\":\"The authorities should continue fiscal consolidation supported by deep structural reforms, prioritize concessional loans, resolve domestic arrears, enhance debt management, and implement economic diversification to reduce long-term oil risks.\"}]",1784490040,86,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-congo-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment-and-outlook-to-2030","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-congo-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment-and-outlook-to-2030/111418/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How is Congo’s debt risk classified in the analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both overall and external debt risks are classified as “in distress.” The granularity in the risk rating is “Sustainable,” with high risks surrounding that assessment.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What explains the accumulation of arrears mentioned in the analysis?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The distress reflects ongoing restructuring, audit work, and liquidity pressures that contribute to domestic arrears, as well as recurrent accumulation of temporary external arrears.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What actions are recommended to improve debt management outcomes by 2030?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The authorities should continue fiscal consolidation supported by deep structural reforms, prioritize concessional loans, resolve domestic arrears, enhance debt management, and implement economic diversification to reduce long-term oil 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