[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110272-en":3,"doc-seo-110272-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110272,1649267921044,"Ava Thompson","https://us-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1800007509477c92dfb?_k=1782875107921204101",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Congo - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis","Republic of Congo’s overall and external public debt are classified as being in debt distress, driven by ongoing restructuring and the audit of domestic arrears that can periodically raise public debt, even as the assessment concludes the debt remains sustainable. Improvements in debt management, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and the completion of debt restructuring are projected to keep external liquidity and solvency indicators below thresholds by 2026 under the baseline. Key risks stem from negative oil price shocks and tighter regional financing conditions, while government efforts emphasize fiscal consolidation, arrears clearance, diversification, and enhanced debt management.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Manuela Francisco (IDA) Vitaly Kramarenko and Fabian Valencia (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF CONGO: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe overall and external debt 1 of the Republic of Congo are classified as “in distress”, reflecting the ongoing restructuring and audit of domestic arrears that periodically results in upward revisions of public debt as well as the temporary accumulation of new external arrears—but debt is assessed as “sustainable”. External arrears to all bilateral and commercial creditors, excluding disputed debts and pre-HIPC claims, have been resolved. Additionally, arrears to all but one commercial supplier were fully paid recently.  \nImproved debt management (including restricting new external financing to concessional terms), fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and recently completed debt restructuring (including resolution of arrears, nominal haircuts on their outstanding stock, maturity extensions, and interest rate reductions) are projected to help all external liquidity and solvency indicators fall below their thresholds by 2026 under the baseline scenario.2 Still high oil prices in the near and medium term (based on the April 2023 WEO assumptions) and higher non-oil growth supported by the authorities’reform agenda, coupled with increased debt amortization (because debt service is tied to high oil prices), are expected to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio and help avoid accumulation of new domestic arrears. Nevertheless, there are major external and overall debt-related risks, as signaled by the PV of the public debt-to-GDP indicator exceeding its benchmark through 2033 and one external debt indicator breaching is respective threshold that is, however, contained  \n1 Most of the external debt is defined on a currency basis, except for the creditors whose residency can be tracked, which are defined on a residency basis. An example is the Regional Development Bank, BDEAC.  \n2 The composite index (CI), estimated at 2.30 and based on the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and 2021 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data, indicate a weak debt carrying capacity for Congo.  \nwithin 3 years.3 Even though the PV of overall public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark extensively, it is assessed as sustainable given that the risks are mitigated by i) steady and significant declines in the relevant ratios going forward and ii) expected accumulation of government deposits at the Central Bank.  \nThere are several risks to debt sustainability. The debt sustainability assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks. Tighter conditions in regional markets (CEMAC banking systems) could be a downside risk if the government’s financing needs exceed the current baseline projections.  \nGoing forward, the authorities should continue pursuing fiscal consolidation, enact policies for diversification to reduce risks and prepare for reduced long-term oil production and demand, clear domestic arrears, and continue enhancing debt management.  \n1. The coverage of public debt in this DSA is limited to central government debt and oil-backed debt contracted by the national oil company (SNPC), the largest state-owned enterprise. State and local governments in Congo are not allowed to borrow and depend on local taxes and transfers from the central government. Debt from oil-backed pre-financing arrangements contracted with oil traders through SNPC and guaranteed by the central government is included in the analysis. The debt of other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-g","cbCaijStAMlo31UY","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijStAMlo31UY","pdf",899037,1,29,"English","en",105,"# Risk Classification and Overall Assessment\n## External Debt Distress\n## Overall Debt Distress\n# Drivers of Sustainability Under the Baseline\n## Debt Restructuring and Arrears Resolution\n## Debt Management and Fiscal Discipline\n# Key Risks to Debt Sustainability\n## Oil Price Shock Sensitivity\n## Regional Market Financing Conditions\n# Policy Priorities and Next Steps\n## Fiscal Consolidation and Diversification\n## Arrears Clearance and Debt Management Enhancement\n# Coverage, Scope, and Institutional Elements\n## Government Debt Coverage and Contingent Liabilities\n## SOE Debt Data Compilation\n## Social Security System and Domestic Arrears","[{\"question\":\"How is the Republic of Congo’s external and overall debt risk classified?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt and overall debt are classified as “in debt distress.” Despite this classification, the assessment judges debt as “sustainable.”\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are projected to improve external liquidity and solvency by 2026?\",\"answer\":\"Improved debt management, restrictions on new external financing to concessional terms, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and completed debt restructuring (including arrears resolution and maturity/interest terms) are projected to lower indicators below thresholds by 2026.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the main risks highlighted in the debt sustainability assessment?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks. Tighter conditions in regional markets (CEMAC banking systems) are also identified as a downside risk if government financing needs exceed baseline projections.\"}]",1784484664,73,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-congo-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-congo-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis/110272/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"How is the Republic of Congo’s external and overall debt risk classified?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both external debt and overall debt are classified as “in debt distress.” Despite this classification, the assessment judges debt as “sustainable.”","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What factors are projected to improve external liquidity and solvency by 2026?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Improved debt management, restrictions on new external financing to concessional terms, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and completed debt restructuring (including arrears resolution and maturity/interest terms) are projected to lower indicators below thresholds by 2026.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What are the main risks highlighted in the debt sustainability assessment?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks. Tighter conditions in regional markets (CEMAC banking systems) are also identified as a downside risk if government financing needs exceed baseline projections.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]