[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110429-en":3,"doc-seo-110429-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110429,5909877438554,"Maeve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/5600025385ad2bf12a7?_k=1778553567797529272",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Congo - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk Assessment","Overall and external public debt for the Republic of Congo are classified as being in distress due to pending arrears payments to Exim Bank, China, Chinese commercial creditors, and selected suppliers. Despite this classification, the analysis assesses debt as sustainable, supported by concluded restructuring discussions for major creditors and agreements on additional arrears. Under the baseline scenario, debt and liquidity indicators are projected to fall below thresholds by 2026 through fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, improved debt management, and restricting new external financing to concessional terms, while highlighting vulnerabilities to oil-price shocks and market tightening.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA); Vitaly Kramarenko and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF CONGO: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe overall and external debt1 of the Republic of Congo are classified as “in distress”, pending arrears payments to India’s Exim Bank, China, Chinese commercial creditors, and ten suppliers (totaling US$159 million) but debt is assessed as “sustainable”. As of end-January 2022, debt restructuring discussions initiated in 2019 with the largest external commercial creditors have all been concluded. Agreements in principle have been reached on arrears to Brazil and Russia.  \nRestructured debt, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and improved debt management—including restricting new external financing to concessional terms—are projected to help all external liquidity and solvency indicators fall below their thresholds by 2026 under the baseline scenario.2 Oil price assumptions (based on the April 2022 WEO assumptions) and projections of growth in the non-oil economy, coupled with increased debt amortization (tied to high oil prices), are expected to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio and support no new accumulation of domestic arrears. Nevertheless, there are major external and overall debt-related risks, as signaled by the PV of public debt to GDP indicator exceeding its benchmark until 2030 and the external debt-service-to-revenue ratio breaching its threshold until 2025 under the baseline scenario. Even though the PV of overall public debt to GDP ratio breaches its benchmark extensively, it is assessed as sustainable given that the liquidity risks are mitigated by i) the steady and significant declines in the relevant ratios going forward, and ii) availability of financing from Congolese financial markets.  \nThere are several risks to debt sustainability. The debt sustainability assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks. Tighter conditions in regional markets (CEMAC banking systems) could be a downside risk if the government’s financing needs exceed the current baseline projections.  \nGoing forward, the authorities are encouraged to continue pursuing fiscal consolidation, enact policies for diversification to reduce risks and prepare for reduced long-term oil production and demand, clear domestic arrears, and continue enhancing debt management.  \n1. The coverage of public debt in this DSA is limited to central government debt and oil-backed debt contracted by the national oil company (SNPC), the largest state-owned enterprise. State and local governments in Congo are not allowed to borrow and depend on local taxes and transfers from the central government. Debt from oil-backed pre-financing arrangements contracted with oil traders through SNPC and guaranteed by the central government is included in the analysis. The debt of other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-guaranteed debt of SNPC are included as contingent liabilities.3 Efforts are underway to compile information on SOEs with a view to expanding the DSA coverage to general government debt, which would include the majority of SOEs. This will require detailed data on revenues, spending, debt, and debt service of these SOEs. Supported by the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement (ECF) arrangement and the FY 2021 performance and policy actions (PPA) under the World Bank’s Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP), the authorities are making on-going efforts to address the limited coverage on SOE debt and financial performance. A ministerial order was recently issued instructing the 10 largest SOEs ","cbCaicOw8UHeM5ML","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicOw8UHeM5ML","pdf",1027066,1,28,"English","en",105,"# Risk classification and outlook\n## Distress assessment vs. sustainability\n## Baseline projections through 2026\n# Key vulnerabilities and risks\n## External and overall debt-related indicators\n## Oil-price shocks and regional market conditions\n# Policy recommendations and next steps\n## Fiscal consolidation and diversification\n## Clearing domestic arrears and improving debt management\n# Scope and coverage details\n## Public debt coverage and SOE contingent liabilities\n## Social security arrears and debt definitions\n## Data collection and debt reporting benchmarks","[{\"question\":\"Why is Congo’s external and overall debt classified as “in distress” in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"It is classified as in distress due to pending arrears payments to creditors including India’s Exim Bank, China, Chinese commercial creditors, and ten suppliers. The analysis notes that arrears issues are central to the distress classification.\"},{\"question\":\"What supports the conclusion that debt is “sustainable” despite the distress classification?\",\"answer\":\"Projected improvements in liquidity and solvency indicators under the baseline scenario help keep debt sustainable, alongside concluded restructuring discussions for major external commercial creditors and agreements in principle on additional arrears. Fiscal discipline, improved debt management, and restricting new external financing to concessional terms are key factors.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors pose the biggest risks to Congo’s debt sustainability going forward?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil-price shocks. Additional downside risk comes from tighter conditions in regional markets within CEMAC if government financing needs exceed baseline projections.\"}]",1784485391,71,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-congo-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-congo-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment/110429/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why is Congo’s external and overall debt classified as “in distress” in the analysis?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"It is classified as in distress due to pending arrears payments to creditors including India’s Exim Bank, China, Chinese commercial creditors, and ten suppliers. The analysis notes that arrears issues are central to the distress classification.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What supports the conclusion that debt is “sustainable” despite the distress classification?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Projected improvements in liquidity and solvency indicators under the baseline scenario help keep debt sustainable, alongside concluded restructuring discussions for major external commercial creditors and agreements in principle on additional arrears. Fiscal discipline, improved debt management, and restricting new external financing to concessional terms are key factors.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which factors pose the biggest risks to Congo’s debt sustainability going forward?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil-price shocks. Additional downside risk comes from tighter conditions in regional markets within CEMAC if government financing needs exceed baseline projections.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]