[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110380-en":3,"doc-seo-110380-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110380,137441390410,"Hazel","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984",8,"Research & Report","Republic of Congo - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis classifies the Republic of Congo’s overall and external debt as “in distress” due to outstanding external arrears and residual uncertainty regarding domestic arrears magnitude, while still judging the debt as “sustainable.” The baseline projection links improved debt management, fiscal discipline, stronger oil prices, and a completed restructuring to external liquidity and solvency indicators falling below thresholds by 2026. Key risks include vulnerability to negative oil-price shocks and potential tighter CEMAC regional market conditions, alongside PV benchmarks that breach until 2031.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Vitaly Kramarenko and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| REPUBLIC OF CONGO: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe overall and external debt1 of the Republic of Congo are classified as “in distress”, reflecting outstanding external arrears and remaining uncertainty about the magnitude of valid domestic arrears—but debt is assessed as“sustainable”. Recently, arrears to one commercial supplier were fully paid and agreements were signed for settling arrears with two Chinese commercial creditors.  \nImproved debt management (including restricting new external financing to concessional terms), fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and recently completed debt restructuring (including resolution of arrears, nominal haircuts on the outstanding stock, maturity extensions, and interest rate reductions) are projected to help all external liquidity and solvency indicators fall below their thresholds by 2026 under the baseline scenario.2 Oil price assumptions (based on the October 2022 WEO assumptions) and higher non-oil growth supported by the authorities’ reform agenda, coupled with increased debt amortization (tied to high oil prices), are expected to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio and help avoid accumulation of new domestic arrears. Nevertheless, there are major external and overall debt-related risks, as signaled by the PV of the public debt-to-GDP indicator exceeding its benchmark until 2031 and three external debt indicators breaching  \n1 Most of the external debt is defined on a currency basis, except for the creditors whose residency can be tracked, that are defined on residency basis. An example is the Regional Development Bank, BDEAC.  \n2 The composite index (CI), estimated at 2.22 and based on the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO and 2021 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data, indicate a weak debt carrying capacity for Congo.  \nthresholds, though these are contained within 4 years. The upward revision in the overall debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium-term, largely driven by the impact of historical GDP revisions on nominal GDP forecasts, has increased debtrelated risks. Even though the PV of overall public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its benchmark extensively, it is assessed as sustainable given that the risks are mitigated by i) steady and significant declines in the relevant ratios going forward, and ii) availability of financing from CEMAC regional financial markets.  \nThere are several risks to debt sustainability. The debt sustainability assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks. Tighter conditions in regional markets (CEMAC banking systems) could be a downside risk if the government’s financing needs exceed the current baseline projections.  \nGoing forward, the authorities are encouraged to continue pursuing fiscal consolidation, enact policies for diversification to reduce risks and prepare for reduced long-term oil production and demand, clear domestic arrears, and continue enhancing debt management  \n1. The coverage of public debt in this DSA is limited to central government debt and oil-backed debt contracted by the national oil company (SNPC), the largest state-owned enterprise. State and local governments in Congo are not allowed to borrow and depend on local taxes and transfers from the central government. Debt from oil-backed pre-financing arrangements contracted with oil traders through SNPC and guaranteed by the central government is included in the analysis. The debt of other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-guaranteed d","cbCaidbk32c2ke6u","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidbk32c2ke6u","pdf",879253,1,28,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## Overall risk classification\n## External debt distress and arrears context\n# Baseline projections and policy drivers\n## Debt management and fiscal discipline\n## Oil price and growth assumptions\n# Key risks and vulnerabilities\n## Oil-price shock sensitivity\n## CEMAC market financing conditions\n# Coverage and contingent liabilities\n## Central government and oil-backed debt scope\n## SOE debt expansion efforts\n# Social security and domestic arrears\n## CNSS and CRF arrears treatment","[{\"question\":\"How does the analysis classify Congo’s overall and external debt risk?\",\"answer\":\"Both the overall and external debt are classified as “in distress,” reflecting outstanding external arrears and uncertainty about domestic arrears. Despite this classification, the debt is assessed as “sustainable.”\"},{\"question\":\"What baseline factors are projected to reduce liquidity and solvency risks by 2026?\",\"answer\":\"Improved debt management (including restricting new external financing to concessional terms), fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and the recent completion of debt restructuring are projected to bring external liquidity and solvency indicators below thresholds by 2026.\"},{\"question\":\"Which risks are highlighted as most important going forward?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil-price shocks, and tighter conditions in CEMAC regional markets could become a downside risk if government financing needs exceed baseline projections. Additional risk signals include PV-related breaches of benchmarks within the medium-term.\"}]",1784485160,71,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"republic-of-congo-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/republic-of-congo-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/110380/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"How does the analysis classify Congo’s overall and external debt risk?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Both the overall and external debt are classified as “in distress,” reflecting outstanding external arrears and uncertainty about domestic arrears. Despite this classification, the debt is assessed as “sustainable.”","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What baseline factors are projected to reduce liquidity and solvency risks by 2026?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Improved debt management (including restricting new external financing to concessional terms), fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and the recent completion of debt restructuring are projected to bring external liquidity and solvency indicators below thresholds by 2026.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which risks are highlighted as most important going forward?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil-price shocks, and tighter conditions in CEMAC regional markets could become a downside risk if government financing needs exceed baseline projections. Additional risk signals include PV-related breaches of benchmarks within the medium-term.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]