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Inflation projections follow 1993 trends toward gradual increase, and the document highlights measurement of services output as a key business-analysis issue.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & 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raise for 1994 after 1993's growth surge?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"Whether the economy can maintain momentum from late-1993 activity into the coming year, or whether the rapid year-end growth reflected borrowed strength that will fade early in 1994.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"Which factor does the roundtable identify as the main engine of 1994 growth?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"Business spending on capital goods, expected to moderate but still contribute roughly a third of the economy’s overall thrust.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"How does the report project inflation for 1994 based on CPI expectations?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"Inflation is expected to rise gradually from about a 2.8 percent annual rate at end-1993 to about 3.2 percent by the end of 1994, reflecting that disinflation has largely run its 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\nnomic horizon,and current conditionsare no exception to that rule.The surgein business activity during the final quar-ter of 1993 raises the immediate questionof whether the economy can maintainsome of this momentum during the com-ing year,or whether the rapid year-endgrowth rate borrowed some strengthfrom early 1994.One of the longer-termuncertainties is how forecasters judgethe economy's inflationary potential.Tohelp sort through these and other issues,the Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelandhosted its most recent gathering of theFourth District Economists'Roundtableon January 21.  \n## ■ Overview of the Outlook\n\nThe economy accelerated consistentlythroughout 1993,culminating in asharp 5.9 percent annualized hike inreal gross domestic product(GDP)dur-ing the final quarter o the year.'Over-all,output advanced 2.9 percent in1993,moderating from the 3.9 percentpace in 1992,but not far from the 3.1percent average growth rate of the en-tire post-World War Il period.  \nAlthough monthly data generally fore-told the economy's strong year-endgrowth,the quarterly expansion wasmore than a percentage point greaterthan most forecasters had expected.While the majority of economic sectorsposted gains,the rise was not espe-cially broad-based—roughly three-fourths of the real GDP increase in1993:IVQ was centered in about one-fourth of the economy—capital goods,  \n# Report of the Fourth DistrictEconomists'Roundtable\n\nresidential construction,and consumerdurables.In fact,nonresidential fixedinvestment,which accounts for onlyabout 12 percent of total output,pro-vided more than half of the rise in realGDPlast year.Unlike 1992,however,asignificant portion of last quarter'sgrowth is generally expected to spillinto the early stages of this year beforemoderating to a rate somewhat under 3percent for the remainder of 1994,ac-cording to the median view of theRoundtable experts(see figure 1).  \nOf the 15 forecasts presented at theJanuary meeting,four projected GDPgrowth this year above 3 percent,fiveranged from 2³%percent to 3 percent,five fell within 2%percent and 2³%per-cent,and only one projected the econ-omy to grow by less than 2%percent.  \nThe engine of growth in 1994 is thoughtto be the same one that sparked most ofthe economy's strength in 1993—busi-ness spending on capital goods (table 1).The Roundtable projects that growth rateto moderate somewhat this year,but stillto provide roughly a third of the econ-omy's thrust.  \nAlso expected to carry into 1994 are in-creases in residential construction andconsumer spending on durable goodsResidential structures,a sector that rep-resents only about 4 percent of realGDP,added significantly to last year'sexpansion,particularly in the secondhalf,when it fueled about 20 percent ofthe economy's growth.Although theRoundtable forecasters expect the  \nJanuary 15,1994  \nEconomic forecasting is a useful toolfor defining the underlying trends inbusiness activity—outlining thebroad patterns that shape the econ-omy,if not its twists and turns.TheFourth District Economists'Round-table assembled recently to give itsspin on current conditions and its pre-dictions for the coming year.  \ngrowth rate of total consumer spendingto remain below that of GDPover thesix-quarter forecast horizon,the groupsuggested that spending on durablegoods—particularly automobiles—would continue to pace the recovery.Personal durable-goods expenditures,which normally account for about 10percent of GDP,provided more than 25percent of overall growth in 1993.  \nWhile the Roundtable economists gen-erally view business conditions thisyear with some optimism,continuedweakness in a few key sectors is ex-pected to restrain the expansion.For ex-ample,government purchases,whichrepresent about 18 percent of GDP,areexpected to add only about I percent ofthe economy's growth in 1994.Net ex-ports are another potential drag,as for-eign economies,particularly in westemEurope,continue to languish.  \nThe Roundtable pan","cbCain7Cpyo6ibUj","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCain7Cpyo6ibUj","pdf",1265631,"English","# Overview of the Outlook\n## 1993 performance and 1994 momentum\n## Sector contributions and spending drivers\n## Constraints: government purchases and net exports\n## Interest-rate expectations and inflation outlook\n## Measurement of services output and CPI implications","[{\"question\":\"What key question does the report raise for 1994 after 1993's growth surge?\",\"answer\":\"Whether the economy can maintain momentum from late-1993 activity into the coming year, or whether the rapid year-end growth reflected borrowed strength that will fade early in 1994.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factor does the roundtable identify as the main engine of 1994 growth?\",\"answer\":\"Business spending on capital goods, expected to moderate but still contribute roughly a third of the economy’s overall thrust.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report project inflation for 1994 based on CPI expectations?\",\"answer\":\"Inflation is expected to rise gradually from about a 2.8 percent annual rate at end-1993 to about 3.2 percent by the end of 1994, reflecting that disinflation has largely run its course.\"}]","Report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable - January 15, 1994 | PDF",1789972195,13]