[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-113185-en":3,"doc-seo-113185-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":94},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},113185,4398048949847,"Eliana","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/400002536579ef2da7f?_k=1778318612642679267",8,"Research & Report","Refugees and Housing - Evidence from the Mortgage Market","This paper investigates how large-scale Syrian refugee inflows affect the Turkish housing market. Using micro-level data on mortgaged house sales in Türkiye from 2010 to 2017, the study estimates dynamic impacts with a difference-in-differences approach. Because refugee location may be endogenous, the analysis instruments refugee distribution using distances from Turkish provinces to Syrian regions, weighted by regional population and relative distance. Results show house prices rise after arrivals, with strongest effects in low-priced housing and fading after 2014, alongside supply-side changes in construction permits and sales.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nThe World Bank Economic Review, 37(1), 2023, 147–176  \n[https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhac024](https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhac024)  \nArticle  \nRefugees and Housing: Evidence from the Mortgage Market  \nYusuf Emre Akgündüz , Yavuz Selim Hacıhasano˘glu , and Fatih Yılmaz   \nAbstract  \nThis paper investigates the impact of large-scale Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish housing market. Employing a micro-level data set of the population of mortgaged houses in Türkiye between 2010 and 2017, it identifies the dynamic effects using a difference-in-differences approach. As the regional distribution of Syrian refugees is presumably not exogenous, it is instrumented in the estimations. The instrument is constructed using the distance from Turkish provinces to each Syrian region, while weighting each Syrian region by their population and distance to Türkiye compared to other destination countries. The results show that house prices increased in response to the arrival of Syrian refugees. The effects are mostly driven by low-priced housing and faded after 2014 . The results further show that construction permits and sales increased, while the average age of purchased houses declined, indicating an increase in supply that may explain the fading-out effect over time. Finally, the findings provide suggestive evidence that houses that are sold after the arrival of refugees decline in size, which further points to a squeeze in the housing market for natives.  \nJEL classification: J15, J61, R31  \nKeywords: immigration, housing, house prices  \n1. Introduction  \nThe unfortunate increase in worldwide forced displacement over the years has led to a great deal of academic and policy interest in the impacts of refugees on host communities. Apart from the economic effects on local labor markets and firms, a key area of research is the effect on scarce local amenities and infrastructure. The impact of immigration on amenities can in fact be a larger contributing factor to  \npublic opposition to immigration (Card, Dustmann, and Preston 2012; Edo et al. 2019). Foremost among scarce amenities is housing and a large population inflow will inevitably affect the housing market in an area.  \nYusuf Emre Akgündüz (corresponding author) is an Assistant Professor at Sabanci University, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Istanbul, Türkiye his email address is [emre.akgunduz@sabanciuniv.edu. Yavuz](emre.akgunduz@sabanciuniv.edu. Yavuz) Selim Hacıhasano˘glu is Deputy Director at the Research and Monetary Policy Department at the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Istanbul, Türkiye his email address is [yavuz.selim@tcmb.gov.tr. Fatih Y](yavuz.selim@tcmb.gov.tr. Fatih Y)ılmaz is an Independent Research Economist, Istanbul, Türkiye and a Research Fellow at the Economic Research Forum, Cairo, Egypt; his email address is [drfatihy@gmail.com. The](drfatihy@gmail.com. The) contents of this paper do not reflect the views of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. All remaining errors are our own.  \n© The Author(s) 2022 . Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.  \nAll rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [journals.permissions@oup.com](journals.permissions@oup.com)  \nDownloaded from [https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/37/1/147/6874774 by International Monetary Fund / World Bank-IMF user on](https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/37/1/147/6874774 by International Monetary Fund / World Bank-IMF user on) 11 September 2023  \nThis paper exploits the rapid arrival of Syrian refugees in Türkiye after the beginning of the Syrian Civil War to study the consequences of forced displacement on host-country housing markets. Rapid refugee inflows can cause excess demand in the short run, but also contribute to increasing supply in the long run through a reduction in labor costs. Others channels through which immigratio","cbCaihA2EaPXNd43","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihA2EaPXNd43","pdf",738811,1,30,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Data and setting\n## Empirical strategy\n## Identification and instrumentation\n## Outcomes and mechanisms","[{\"question\":\"What is the main research question of the paper?\",\"answer\":\"The paper studies the impact of large-scale Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish housing market, focusing on house prices and related outcomes.\"},{\"question\":\"What data and time period are used?\",\"answer\":\"It uses micro-level administrative data on mortgage credits and mortgaged house sales reported by Turkish banks to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, covering 2010 to 2017.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the paper address the problem that refugee placement may be non-random?\",\"answer\":\"It employs an instrumental-variables strategy, instrumenting refugee distribution using distances from Turkish provinces to Syrian regions weighted by population and relative distance to Türkiye versus other destination countries.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the key findings regarding house prices and housing supply?\",\"answer\":\"House prices increase in response to refugee arrivals, with effects concentrated in low-priced housing and fading after 2014. The paper also finds higher construction permits and sales and a decline in the average age of purchased homes, consistent with increased supply.\"}]",1784501087,76,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":89,"head_meta":91,"extra_data":93,"updated_unix":27},"refugees-and-housing-evidence-from-the-mortgage-market","",{"@graph":35,"@context":88},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/refugees-and-housing-evidence-from-the-mortgage-market/113185/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80,84],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the main research question of the paper?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The paper studies the impact of large-scale Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish housing market, focusing on house prices and related outcomes.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What data and time period are used?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"It uses micro-level administrative data on mortgage credits and mortgaged house sales reported by Turkish banks to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, covering 2010 to 2017.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How does the paper address the problem that refugee placement may be non-random?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"It employs an instrumental-variables strategy, instrumenting refugee distribution using distances from Turkish provinces to Syrian regions weighted by population and relative distance to Türkiye versus other destination countries.",{"name":85,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":86},"What are the key findings regarding house prices and housing supply?",{"text":87,"@type":75},"House prices increase in response to refugee arrivals, with effects concentrated in low-priced housing and fading after 2014. The paper also finds higher construction permits and sales and a decline in the average age of purchased homes, consistent with increased supply.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":90,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":92,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":95},[96,100,104,108,113,118,123,125,130,133,137],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":105,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":107},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":109,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":110,"show_sort_weight":111,"slug":112},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":114,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":115,"show_sort_weight":116,"slug":117},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":119,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":120,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":124},"research-report",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":127,"show_sort_weight":128,"slug":129},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":128,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":131,"show_sort_weight":128,"slug":132},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":134,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":134,"slug":136},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":138,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":139,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":140},19,"General","general"]