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Autoregressive distributed lag models assess long-run relationships for the full sample and four sub-samples, including tests for non-linearity. Findings show public expenditure delivers a significant positive impact on enrollment across LMICs, including low-income, lower-middle-income, and sub-Saharan African countries, with effects persisting in non-linear specifications. The study emphasizes sustained and efficient funding.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/public-spending-and-primary-school-enrollment-an-autoregressive-distributed-lag-approach-602292/602292/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/public-spending-and-primary-school-enrollment-an-autoregressive-distributed-lag-approach-602292/602292.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"dawugda","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":29},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the main relationship studied in this paper?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The paper studies how public investment influences primary school enrollment over the long run in low- and middle-income countries.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What analytical method is used to estimate long-term effects?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"It uses autoregressive distributed lag models to evaluate long-term relationships for the full sample and four sub-samples, including checks for possible non-linear effects.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What do the results show about public expenditure and enrollment?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Public expenditure has a significant positive impact on enrollment across LMICs in the long run, and these effects persist under non-linear model specifications.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},602292,1792402489,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":29,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145},3985747870947,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2","| education policy analysis archives\u003Cbr>A peer-reviewed, independent, open access, multilingual journal | |\n| --- | --- |\n| Arizona State University |  |\n| Volume 33 Number 24 April 1, 2025 ISSN 1068-2341 |  |\n\nPublic Spending and Primary School Enrollment: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach1  \nParfait Bihkongnyuy Beri  \nTriple Helix Foundation  \nCameroon  \nLogan Cochrane  \nHamad Bin Khalifa University  \nQatar  \n&  \nSarah Syed Fazlullah  \nHamad Bin Khalifa University  \nQatar  \nCitation: Beri, P. B., Cochrane, L., & Fazlullah, S. S. (2025) . Public spending and primary school enrollment: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. Education Policy Analysis Archives, 33(24) .  \n[https://doi.org/10.14507/epaa.33.8690](https://doi.org/10.14507/epaa.33.8690)  \nAbstract: This paper delves into the effects of public investment on primary school enrollment in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) across three decades, from 1990 to 2020. Autoregressive distributed lag models are employed to evaluate their long-term relationship for the whole sample and four distinct sub-samples while also probing the potential non-linear nature of the relationship. Results reveal that public expenditure has a significant, positive impact on enrollment across LMICs, including low-income (LICs), lower-  \n1 This project was funded by Education Above All Foundation.  \nJournal website: [http://epaa.asu.edu/ojs/ ](http://epaa.asu.edu/ojs/  Manuscript)[ Manuscript](http://epaa.asu.edu/ojs/  Manuscript) received: 11/4/2024  \nFacebook: /EPAAA Revisions received: 28/1/2025  \nTwitter: @epaa_aape Accepted: 11/3/2025  \nEducation Policy Analysis Archives Vol. 33 No. 24 2  \nmiddle-income (LMCs), and sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in the long run. These effects persist under non-linear model specifications. The study provides fresh empirical insights by adopting a long-term viewpoint on the nexus between educational funding and enrollment trends in LMICs. The findings highlight the critical role of sustained and efficient funding in achieving enrollment goals, a cornerstone for advancing sustainable development. Beyond conventional revenues and expenditures in the education finance literature, the study also discusses alternative policy approaches that can enhance the efficient use of allocated resources.  \nKeywords: public spending; government expenditure; school enrollment; access to education; SDG4  \nGasto público y matrícula en la escuela primaria: Un enfoque de rezagos distribuidos autorregresivos  \nResumen: Este artículo explora los efectos de la inversión pública en la matrícula de la escuela primaria en países de ingresos bajos y medianos (PIBM) durante tres décadas, de 1990 a 2020. Se emplean modelos de rezagos distribuidos autorregresivos para evaluar su relación a largo plazo en toda la muestra y en cuatro submuestras distintas, al tiempo que se examina la posible naturaleza no lineal de la relación. Los resultados revelan que el gasto público tiene un impacto positivo y significativo en la matrícula en los PIBM, incluidos los países de ingresos bajos (PIB), de ingresos medianos bajos (PIMB) y de África subsahariana (ASS) a largo plazo. Estos efectos persisten bajo especificaciones de modelos no lineales. El estudio aporta nuevas perspectivas empíricas al adoptar un enfoque a largo plazo sobre la relación entre elfinanciamiento educativo y las tendencias de matrícula en los PIBM. Los hallazgos subrayan el papel fundamental de una financiación sostenida y eficiente para lograr los objetivos de matrícula, un pilar clave para el avance del desarrollo sostenible. Más allá de los ingresos ygastos convencionales en la literatura sobre financiamiento educativo, el estudio tambiénanaliza enfoques de políticas alternativas que pueden mejorar el uso eficiente de los recursosasignados.  \nPalabras-clave: gasto público; gasto gubernamental; matrícula escolar; acceso a la educación; ODS4  \nGasto público e matrícula no ensino primário: Uma abordagem de defa","cbCail0xE1jAUCNd","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCail0xE1jAUCNd","pdf",486505,26,"English","# Abstract\n## Research question and model approach\n## Key findings\n## Policy implications","[{\"question\":\"What is the main relationship studied in this paper?\",\"answer\":\"The paper studies how public investment influences primary school enrollment over the long run in low- and middle-income countries.\"},{\"question\":\"What analytical method is used to estimate long-term effects?\",\"answer\":\"It uses autoregressive distributed lag models to evaluate long-term relationships for the full sample and four sub-samples, including checks for possible non-linear effects.\"},{\"question\":\"What do the results show about public expenditure and enrollment?\",\"answer\":\"Public expenditure has a significant positive impact on enrollment across LMICs in the long run, and these effects persist under non-linear model specifications.\"}]","Public Spending and Primary School Enrollment: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach | PDF",1792094417,66]