[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-199230-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":81,"doc-detail-199230-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":74,"head_meta":76,"extra_data":78,"updated_unix":80},105,"en","prospects-for-peace-in-sudan-briefing-december-2008","Prospects for Peace in Sudan - Briefing December 2008","","Briefing December 2008 analyzes the prospects for sustaining peace in Sudan over the next three to five years, focusing on how to complete the CPA, linked to the southern Sudan referendum, without triggering a major new war or state failure. It argues that avoiding disaster depends on an elite political compact between northern and southern leaders, supported by required political steps including governance formation, Darfur settlement, and revenue and north-south outstanding issues. It evaluates 2011 scenarios and highlights disruptive external and internal developments.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/prospects-for-peace-in-sudan-briefing-december-2008/199230/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/prospects-for-peace-in-sudan-briefing-december-2008/199230.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Oliver Hayes","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-18","2026-09-04",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":55},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",12,{"@type":57,"mainEntity":58},"FAQPage",[59,65,69],{"name":60,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":62},"What central risk does the briefing address for Sudan’s peace process?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"It focuses on completing the CPA and the southern self-determination referendum without sparking a major new war or an unstable failed state in South Sudan.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"What does the briefing identify as essential to avoid war and state failure?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"It identifies the need for a compact among Sudanese elites—an apolitical bargain protecting material interests—supported by specific political steps before such an elite bargain can be finalized.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"Which near-term developments could disrupt progress toward an elite bargain?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"An imminent arrest warrant against President Omar al Bashir and a new Administration in Washington DC, which could divert attention and affect expectations about rapid change.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":75,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":77,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":79,"site_id":7},199230,1788505274,{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":83},"success",[84,88,92,96,101,106,111,115,120,123,127],{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":85,"show_sort_weight":86,"slug":87},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":26,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":89,"show_sort_weight":90,"slug":91},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":33,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":97,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":102,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},8,30,"research-report",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":118,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":121,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":122},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":124,"slug":126},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":128,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":130},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":132},{"doc_id":79,"user_id":133,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":112,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":55,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":116,"language":140,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":80,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},687207020761,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","PFP Brief Dec 08 091208  \nProspects for Peace in Sudan  \nBriefing: December 2008  \nOverview  \n1. This briefing addresses the challenge of seeking and sustaining peace in Sudan over the next three-to-five years. The central question is how to ensure that the completion of the CPA, marked by the referendum on self-determination in southern Sudan, passes off without sparking a major new war and an unstable failed state in South Sudan. Such a disaster is the default outcome, which will occur if nothing is done to prevent it. It will take place because of the irreconcilable political positions adopted by the Sudanese political elites and the weakness of the country’s political institutions, potentially compounded by the destabilizing impacts of external engagement.  \n2. Navigating the challenge of self-determination in the South without war and state failure requires a compact among Sudanese elites. This will need to take the form of apolitical bargain which takes care of their material interests. There is some movement towards such a compact, based on growing recognition of the potential disaster associated with contested partition, along with emerging mutual financial interdependence. But on current experience, these common interests emerge only gradually and the Sudanese political process moves too slowly for such a bargain to be within grasp within two years. Best estimates are that six years’political work (formal and informal) needs to be done to establish the necessary elite bargain.  \n3. Necessary steps before an elite bargain can be hammered out include a strategic decision within the SPLM leadership, the successful completion of the electoral process and the formation of a new Government of National Unity, a settlement in Darfur, and a deal on the outstanding issues between north and south, especially on revenue.  \n4. Two short term developments could transform, accelerate, slow down or capsize progress towards a political bargain in Sudan. The first is the imminent arrest warrant against President Omar al Bashir. While the GoS has taken some important steps towards reducing violence, facilitating UNAMID deployment, and establishing the political conditions for a peace settlement, the next steps are unclear.  \n5. The second development is the new Administration in Washington DC. PresidentElect Barack Obama is under strong domestic pressure to take some dramatic action on Darfur.  \n6. Both these developments distract the Sudanese political elites, and threaten delay in the processes of grappling with the fundamental challenges facing Sudan, and raise vain hopes among the SPLA and Darfurians of a radical change in their favour.  \nScenarios for 2011  \n7. The first premise of this briefing is that a contested partition of Sudan would be a disaster. The dimensions of this disaster would include humanitarian crisis, mass population displacement, armed conflict, a new fragile or failed state in southern Sudan, and possibly a war involving the neighbouring countries and huge and challenging UN peacekeeping operations with no realistic exit strategies.  \n8. The second premise is that the only way to avoid such a disaster is for the Sudanese elites, north and south, to come to a political compact among themselves in advance of the decision. A compact on unity would be an easier bargain to negotiate but a compact on consensual separation would be a workable second-best. Partition with elite interests adequately catered for would be a political trauma nonetheless, but the elite compact could minimize the risks of violence.  \n9. A third assumption is that the Sudanese political system operates at a certain pace, which cannot easily be accelerated, and that attempts to force the pace of political decision making risk driving the machine off the rails. The formal procedures of decision-making in the GoNU, such as passing legislation in the National Assembly, and building the institutions needed and implementing the required technical me","cbCaid8r6oX7azN4","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaid8r6oX7azN4","pdf",169380,"English","# Overview\n## Scenarios for 2011\n## Next Developments","[{\"question\":\"What central risk does the briefing address for Sudan’s peace process?\",\"answer\":\"It focuses on completing the CPA and the southern self-determination referendum without sparking a major new war or an unstable failed state in South Sudan.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the briefing identify as essential to avoid war and state failure?\",\"answer\":\"It identifies the need for a compact among Sudanese elites—an apolitical bargain protecting material interests—supported by specific political steps before such an elite bargain can be finalized.\"},{\"question\":\"Which near-term developments could disrupt progress toward an elite bargain?\",\"answer\":\"An imminent arrest warrant against President Omar al Bashir and a new Administration in Washington DC, which could divert attention and affect expectations about rapid change.\"}]","Prospects for Peace in Sudan - Briefing December 2008 | PDF",23]