[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-639291-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":80,"doc-detail-639291-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":73,"head_meta":75,"extra_data":77,"updated_unix":79},105,"en","pring-turner-approach-to-business-cycle-investing","Pring Turner Approach to Business Cycle Investing","","An approach to business cycle investing built around two game plans: defensive positioning to protect wealth in difficult periods and offensive positioning to grow wealth during favorable conditions. The framework links recurring business-cycle rhythms to dynamic portfolio management, using an all-season strategy to capture emerging opportunities while mitigating inevitable cyclical declines. It introduces six stages across asset classes and explains how proprietary bond, stock, and commodity “barometers” identify the current stage and guide allocation shifts.",{"@graph":14,"@context":72},[15,34,55],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/pring-turner-approach-to-business-cycle-investing/639291/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/pring-turner-approach-to-business-cycle-investing/639291.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Franzy","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-02","2026-10-22",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":33},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",{"@type":56,"mainEntity":57},"FAQPage",[58,64,68],{"name":59,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":61},"What are the two core investment game plans in the approach?","Question",{"text":62,"@type":63},"One plan is defensive, designed to protect assets during difficult periods. The other is offensive, aimed at growing wealth during favorable conditions.","Answer",{"name":65,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":66},"How does understanding the business cycle help investors?",{"text":67,"@type":63},"It helps investors anticipate economic turning points and decide when to take offense or defense in their portfolios. The goal is to avoid extrapolating current market conditions indefinitely.",{"name":69,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":70},"How are the current business-cycle stages identified?",{"text":71,"@type":63},"The approach uses proprietary technical and inter-market “barometers” for bonds, stocks, and commodities. It evaluates whether a majority of components signal buy or sell to determine each asset class’s bullish or bearish stance, then maps that to stages I through VI.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":74,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":76,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":78,"site_id":7},639291,1792897141,{"code":4,"msg":81,"data":82},"success",[83,87,91,95,100,105,110,114,119,122,126],{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":84,"show_sort_weight":85,"slug":86},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":26,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":88,"show_sort_weight":89,"slug":90},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":33,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":92,"show_sort_weight":93,"slug":94},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":96,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":101,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},8,30,"research-report",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":120,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":121},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":123,"slug":125},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":129},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":81,"data":131},{"doc_id":78,"user_id":132,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":111,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":33,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":33,"language":139,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":143,"read_time":123},2336478945519,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45","Essentially, an investor needs two game plans; one for defense to protect assets in difficult periods, and one for offense, to grow wealth during favorable conditions.  \nAlways being alert and anticipating the next inflection point in the business cycle creates a dynamically managed portfolio that takes advantage of emerging profit opportunities and also protects one’s wealth from the inevitable cyclical declines.  \nSince 2000, the stock market has experienced two vicious declines of greater than 50%, providing an excellent benchmark to gauge performance. During this time, our allseason strategy outperformed the S&P 500 while taking roughly half the risk  \nPRING TURNER APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE INVESTING  \nThe heart of our investment approach focuses on business cycle associated trends for bonds, stocks and commodities and is based on two observations. First, there is a rhythm to typical business activity that has repeated continuously since the beginning of the industrial revolution over 150 years ago. Second, the ideal asset allocation and sector rotation for investment portfolios can be adjusted based on the stage of the business cycle in an effort to increase returns while reducing risks. The calendar year rotates through four seasons, the knowledge of which empowers farmers to plant in the spring, harvest in the fall and avoid the problematic cold of winter. Like the seasons of the year, the environment for bonds, stocks, and commodities also changes in a repeatable and sequential fashion. Rather than being victimized by inevitable cyclical declines, investors can prepare for the ever-changing financial market seasons and stand to benefit from understanding the progress of the business cycle.  \nWHAT IS THE BUSINESS CYCLE?  \nThe business cycle is the normal, sequential, and repeated ups and downs ofthe economy. This continuous sequence has repeated over and over since the U.S. became an industrialized nation in the 18th century. A bell shaped curve provides the best illustration of the business cycle. The shape is simple, elegant and implies continuous change, with one cycle leading into the next (figure 1) .  \nThe uphill (above the dotted line) half of the curve implies the growth or expansion phase of the economy. This is a profitable time for companies and the employment picture is bright. The downhill (bottom) half of the bell-shaped curve, or contraction phase, is commonly referred to as a recession. A recession sees business activity shrinking. Sales and profits decline for corporations. As companies lay off employees, the unemployment rate rises and household  \nincome declines. The stock market suffers declines, often substantial losses, associated with recessions. Over the last century three out of every four bear markets for stocks (-20% or greater declines) have occurred during recessions. The real value of understanding the business cycle is that it helps us look ahead and anticipate economic turning points without extrapolating current financial market conditions indefinitely into the future. In simple terms, it helps investors identify whether it is an appropriate time to play offense (grow wealth) or defense (protect wealth) in portfolios.  \nINTRODUCING THE SIX STAGES  \nAnyone with gardening experience understands that it is difficult to plant in the winter because nothing grows. The same is true for the financial seasons in the business cycle, where investors can use knowledge of the chronological bond, stock and commodity sequence to create a financial market calendar. By better understanding these financial seasons and using the correct forecasting tools, investors can make well-informed decisions and dramatically improve their chances for investment success. Each asset class has two turning points in a given business cycle—a top and a bottom. This means that a typical cycle has a total of six junctures—three buys and three sells. We call these the Six Stages. The calendar year has four seasons, each of w","cbCaietJf7GUFIfG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaietJf7GUFIfG","pdf",876455,"English","# What Is the Business Cycle?\n## Six Stages\n# How Do We Know Which Stage We Are In?","[{\"question\":\"What are the two core investment game plans in the approach?\",\"answer\":\"One plan is defensive, designed to protect assets during difficult periods. The other is offensive, aimed at growing wealth during favorable conditions.\"},{\"question\":\"How does understanding the business cycle help investors?\",\"answer\":\"It helps investors anticipate economic turning points and decide when to take offense or defense in their portfolios. The goal is to avoid extrapolating current market conditions indefinitely.\"},{\"question\":\"How are the current business-cycle stages identified?\",\"answer\":\"The approach uses proprietary technical and inter-market “barometers” for bonds, stocks, and commodities. It evaluates whether a majority of components signal buy or sell to determine each asset class’s bullish or bearish stance, then maps that to stages I through VI.\"}]","Pring Turner Approach to Business Cycle Investing | PDF",1792702873]