[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-587162-105":59,"doc-detail-587162-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":123,"head_meta":125,"extra_data":127,"updated_unix":129},105,"en","predictive-validity-post-secondary-enrollment","Predictive Validity: Post-Secondary Enrollment","","This study examines how student performance in English Language Arts (ELA) and Mathematics predicts later college enrollment. Results show a strong, consistent relationship: students at the highest performance level are more than twice as likely to enroll in college as those at the lowest level. Mathematics is a stronger predictor for four-year colleges than two-year colleges and remains more influential than ELA when both are considered together. Findings indicate math proficiency plays a key role in postsecondary pathways.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/predictive-validity-post-secondary-enrollment/587162/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/predictive-validity-post-secondary-enrollment/587162.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Fahsai","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-19","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":81},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"How do ELA and Mathematics performance predict later college enrollment?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"Both ELA and Mathematics assessment performance strongly predict future college enrollment, and the effect remains consistent over time. Students at the highest level are more than twice as likely to enroll as those at the lowest level.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Which subject is a stronger predictor of enrollment, Mathematics or ELA?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Mathematics is a stronger predictor of enrollment in four-year colleges than in two-year colleges. When both subjects are considered together, Mathematics remains more influential than ELA.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What does the study suggest about postsecondary pathways?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"High Mathematics scores are associated with enrolling in a four-year college even when ELA scores are lower. This suggests mathematics proficiency plays an especially important role in shaping postsecondary pathways.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},587162,1792209532,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":81,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":39,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":46},549768702563,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000c4aa63b76e948b?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1786536092046926083","Abstract  \nThis study examines how student performance in English Language Arts (ELA) and Mathematics predicts later college enrollment. The results show a strong and consistent relationship over time: students who score at the highest performance level are more than twice as likely to enroll in college compared with students scoring at the lowest level. Mathematics performance is a stronger predictor of enrollment in four-year colleges than in two-year colleges, and it also remains more influential than ELA when both subjects are considered together. Students with high mathematics scores are likely to enroll ina four-year college even if their ELA scores are lower, while high ELA performance alone is less strongly associated with fouryear college enrollment. These findings suggest that mathematics proficiency plays a particularly important role in shaping postsecondary pathways.  \nPredictive Validity: Post-Secondary Enrollment  \nOregon’s statewide assessment system (OSAS) is designed to support measurement of student progress toward Oregon’s statewide standards. In high school, the assessment is delivered in 11th grade and the standards are selected to align with and be anchored by what students approaching the end of their K-12 enrollment need in order to be successful in their next steps: college, career, or other plans. Students who meet or exceed established cut scores on the assessments are considered to be proficient in the English Language Arts and/or Mathematics that all students should study in order to be college and career ready,1 and therefore better prepared for college and career. The common core state standards upon which Oregon’s standards are based were developed by experts, including teachers, to include what students need to know to be college and career ready, and call for the results of the assessment system to be validated against the performance of students in college.2 The work presented here is part of Oregon’s efforts to evaluate that validity.  \nPredictive validity is the evaluation of how well a measure, in this case assessment results, predicts an outcome that should be theoretically related to the measure. This brief focuses on the outcome of post-secondary enrollment, or a student’s likelihood of enrolling in two-or four-year college following high school graduation. It is the first in a planned series of briefs examining the predictive validity of assessment results on various post-assessment outcomes.  \nKey Takeaways:  \n• Both English Language Arts and Mathematics assessment performance are strongly predictive of a student’s future college enrollment, and the effect is consistent over time. For both assessments, students scoring at level 4 were more than twice as likely as students scoring at level 1 to enroll in college.  \n1 Oregon Math Standards, pg 4.  \n2 Common Core Math Standards, pg 84  \n• Assessment performance is a stronger predictor of four-year college enrollment than of two-year college enrollment.  \n• When considered in combination, a student’s Mathematics assessment performance was more strongly predictive than their English Language Arts assessment performance – students with high math scores but lower ELA scores were still likely to attend 4-year college, while students with high ELA scores and lower math scores were comparatively less likely to attend.  \nBackground  \nThe predictive validity of high school assessments is of interest in the state for a number of reasons. Validating the tests as an accurate measure of a student’s readiness for post-high school opportunities enables high schools to better understand assessment performance as an indicator of which students need additional supports to achieve their high school and posthigh school goals. Showing that assessments predict postsecondary outcomes can also support their use as college-entrance mechanisms, perhaps allowing colleges and universities to extend admissions offers to students who do not see themselves as traditi","cbCaijcxwKVHz3gJ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijcxwKVHz3gJ","pdf",1319214,"English","# Predictive Validity: Post-Secondary Enrollment\n## Oregon’s Assessment System (OSAS)\n## Predictive Validity Framework\n## Key Takeaways\n## Background\n## Study Sample and Data Sources\n## English Language Arts","[{\"question\":\"How do ELA and Mathematics performance predict later college enrollment?\",\"answer\":\"Both ELA and Mathematics assessment performance strongly predict future college enrollment, and the effect remains consistent over time. Students at the highest level are more than twice as likely to enroll as those at the lowest level.\"},{\"question\":\"Which subject is a stronger predictor of enrollment, Mathematics or ELA?\",\"answer\":\"Mathematics is a stronger predictor of enrollment in four-year colleges than in two-year colleges. When both subjects are considered together, Mathematics remains more influential than ELA.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the study suggest about postsecondary pathways?\",\"answer\":\"High Mathematics scores are associated with enrolling in a four-year college even when ELA scores are lower. This suggests mathematics proficiency plays an especially important role in shaping postsecondary pathways.\"}]","Predictive Validity: Post-Secondary Enrollment | PDF",1792060885]