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The study aimed to develop and assess a prediction model for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) using multidimensional clinical indicators. A retrospective analysis compared non-PEP and PEP groups, evaluated PEP-associated factors via univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and assessed performance with calibration and ROC AUC.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":35,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/healthcare/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/prediction-model-for-the-occurrence-of-acute-pancreatitis-after-endoscopic-retrograde-cholangiopancreatography-original-article/406770/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/prediction-model-for-the-occurrence-of-acute-pancreatitis-after-endoscopic-retrograde-cholangiopancreatography-original-article/406770.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Bulrr","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-04","2026-09-28",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",16,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What complication does the prediction model target in this study?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"The model targets acute pancreatitis occurring after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (post-ERCP pancreatitis, PEP).","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How were the patients grouped for model development and evaluation?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"Patients were retrospectively divided into non-PEP (n = 159) and PEP (n = 24) groups based on whether PEP developed. For modeling, 70% were used for training and 30% for testing in R.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"Which factors were independently associated with acute PEP?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"Independent associations included age, total cholesterol level, history of pancreatitis, pancreatic ductography, and bleeding.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},406770,1790804133,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":34,"category_name":35,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":52,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},5909892115043,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_6f874abed73319feea01a86fa6f0fab8","| W | J | G | S | World Journal of\u003Cbr>Gastrointestinal Surgery |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n\nSubmit a Manuscript: [https://www.f6publishing.com](https://www.f6publishing.com) World J Gastrointest Surg 2025 December 27; 17(12): 111003  \nDOI: 10.4240/wjgs.v17.i12.111003 ISSN 1948-9366 (online)  \nORIGINAL ARTICLE  \nRetrospective Study  \nPrediction model for the occurrence of acute pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography based on multidimensional indicators  \nXun-Xun Cao, Min Sun  \nSpecialty type: Gastroenterology and hepatology  \nProvenance and peer review:  \nUnsolicited article; Externally peer reviewed.  \nPeer-review model: Single blind  \nPeer-review report’s classification Scientific Quality: Grade B  \nNovelty: Grade C  \nCreativity or Innovation: Grade B  \nScientific Significance: Grade C  \nP-Reviewer: Rhodin KE, Associate Professor, United States  \nReceived: June 24, 2025  \nRevised: July 28, 2025  \nAccepted: October 20, 2025  \nPublished online: December 27, 2025  \nProcessing time: 183 Days and 23.7 Hours  \nXun-Xun Cao, Min Sun, Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou 221000, Jiangsu Province, China  \nCorresponding author: Min Sun, Associate Professor, Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, No. 99 Huaihai West Road, Xuzhou 221000, Jiangsu Province, [China.](China. sunminnt820919@163.com)[ sunminnt820919@163.com](China. sunminnt820919@163.com)  \nAbstract  \nBACKGROUND  \nPost-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis is a common complication of the procedure. The effective prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) remains a key focus of clinical research.  \nAIM  \nTo develop a prediction model for PEP based on multidimensional clinical indicators and evaluate its clinical application value.  \nMETHODS  \nWe retrospectively analyzed 183 patients with biliary tract diseases who underwent ERCP at Xuzhou Medical University from January 2020 to June 2023, divided into non-PEP (n = 159) and PEP (n = 24) groups based on PEP development. Baseline and intraoperative data were compared, and PEP-related factors examined via univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Using R, 70% of patients were assigned to training and 30% to testing sets for PEP prediction model development. Model accuracy was evaluated using a calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) .  \nRESULTS  \nAge, total cholesterol level, history of pancreatitis, pancreatic ductography, bleeding, and intubation time differed significantly between the two groups when baseline data and intraoperative conditions were compared (P \u003C 0.05) . Multifactorial logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age [odds ratio (OR) = 0.192, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.053-0.698], total cholesterol (OR = 0.324, 95%CI: 0.152-0.694), history of pancreatitis (OR = 6.159, 95%CI: 1.770-21.434), pancreatography (OR = 3.726, 95%CI: 1.028-13.507), and bleeding (OR = 3.059, 95%CI: 1.001- 9.349) were independently associated with acute pancreatitis after ERCP. The  \n WJGS  [https://www.wjgnet.com](https://www.wjgnet.com) 1 December 27, 2025  Volume 17  Issue 12   \nCao XX et al. Predictive modeling of post-ERCP pancreatitis  \npredictive probabilities from the calibration curves had mean errors of 0.021 and 0.030, with ROC AUCs of 0.840 and 0.797 in the training and test sets, respectively.  \nCONCLUSION  \nAge, total cholesterol, pancreatitis history, pancreatic ductography, and bleeding influence the risk of acute PEP. A model incorporating these factors may aid early detection and intervention.  \nKey Words: Pancreatitis; Multidimensional indicators; Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; Model prediction; Logistic regression; Pancreatic ductography  \n©The Author(s) 2025. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.  \nCore Tip: A predictive model of acute post-endoscopic ","cbCaijtMrwr1VcRm","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijtMrwr1VcRm","pdf",826208,"English","# Abstract\n## Background\n## Aim\n## Methods\n## Results\n## Conclusion\n# Introduction","[{\"question\":\"What complication does the prediction model target in this study?\",\"answer\":\"The model targets acute pancreatitis occurring after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (post-ERCP pancreatitis, PEP).\"},{\"question\":\"How were the patients grouped for model development and evaluation?\",\"answer\":\"Patients were retrospectively divided into non-PEP (n = 159) and PEP (n = 24) groups based on whether PEP developed. For modeling, 70% were used for training and 30% for testing in R.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors were independently associated with acute PEP?\",\"answer\":\"Independent associations included age, total cholesterol level, history of pancreatitis, pancreatic ductography, and bleeding.\"}]","Prediction model for the occurrence of acute pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography - Original Article | PDF",1790567741,25]