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This study investigates how global climatic phenomena—El Niño and La Niña—affect Jordanian rainfall, using annual data from 24 rain gauges over 1960–2007. Two indices are analyzed: ENSO SST and SOI with quarterly values, and predictions are built using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Results show rainfall is strongly influenced by prior second and third quarter values, supporting proactive water management and planning for rainfed farming.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/predicting-rainfall-season-in-jordan-using-el-nino-and-la-nina-climatic-phenomena-indices/665607/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/predicting-rainfall-season-in-jordan-using-el-nino-and-la-nina-climatic-phenomena-indices/665607.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Olivia Brown","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-10-29",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":14},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"Why is predicting Jordan’s rainfall season important?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"Jordan has arid conditions with limited and highly variable rainfall, which restricts development and rain-fed farming. Predicting the October–May rainy season supports better planning for land and water resources.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What data and time period are used to study rainfall prediction?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"The study uses annual rainfall records from 24 rain gauges distributed across Jordan, covering 1960 to 2007.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"Which climatic indices are used as predictors, and how are they applied?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Two global climatic indices are used: ENSO SST (Sea Surface Temperature Index) and SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). Quarterly values of both indices are combined with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to generate predictions.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},665607,1793305162,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":14,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":129,"read_time":144},16904993612988,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd","PREDICTING RAINFALL SEASON IN JORDAN USING EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATIC PHENOMENA INDICES  \nR. S. Shatnawi 1 and S. M. AlAyyash2  \n1 Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, Amman, Jordan E-mail: [rania_sha@asu.edu.jo](rania_sha@asu.edu.jo)  \n2 Department of Civil Engineering, Al al-Bayt University, Mafraq, Jordan  \nE-mail: [saad.a@aabu.edu.jo](saad.a@aabu.edu.jo)  \nJordan is characterized by arid weather where rainfall occurs with limited quantities during limited time. More than 80% of the countries area receives annual rainfall less than 200 mm.  \nThe limited amounts and fluctuation of rainfall limit the development options of most of the country regions which is mainly rangelands and rain-fed activities. Predicting the rainfall season which extends between October and May help developers to better plan and mange the limited land resources such as rangelands and rain-fed farming. This study aims at studying the impacts of global climatic phenomena (El-Nino and La-Nina) on Jordanian rainfall. The study used the annual rainfall of 24 rain gauges distributed all over Jordan covering the period from 1960 to 2007. Two global climatic indices were used which are El-Nino Southern Oscillation Sea Surface Temperature Index (ENSO SST) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) . Quarterly values of both indices have been used. A prediction approach using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and both ENSO SST and SOI was obtained using the data set between 1960 and 2007. It is found that the Jordanian rainfall is highly affected by the previous second and thirds quarters (MAM- ) and (JJA) SOI and ENSO SST indices. This means that they can be used as predictors for the Jordanian rainfall, which could be a helpful tool for pro-active water management mainly for the rainfed agricultural sector. The prediction using MAM- ENSO SST index has given 85.6% true prediction compared to MAM- SOI index which has given a 100% true prediction. Where, both JJA- ENSO SST and JJA- SOI have given a true prediction of 85.6% . Once it is understood how the global systems influence the climate, here will be a better chance to develop long-term prediction tools for anticipating wet winter season and with significant lead time, which allows ground preparation, seed sowing, etc. stronger economic and water management benefit of SOI typeof correlations used as predictor. Better understanding of the climate, together with statistically reliable forward predictions of the characteristics of the next rainy season offer real opportunities to improve the utilisation of water and land resources to achieve real economic benefits.  \nKeywords: Jordan, Arid Land, Rainfall, El Nino, La Nina, Southern Oscillation Index,  \nIntroduction  \nJordan (located in the eastern Mediterranean basin between 29º 20′ to 32º N and 34º to 39º E) is an arid to semi arid country with an area of 89,400km2 of which 3% can be considered as Mediterranean. The Mediterranean Sea in the west and the desert in the east affect the country’s climate. It is characterised by dry hot summers and mild wet winters with extreme variability in rainfall within and between years. More than 90% of the country’s land is desert known as the Badia, which receives an average annual rainfall of less than 200 mm. In Jordan, rainfall decreases from Northwest to Southeast as shown in Figure 1. This is due to the increased distance from the main tracks of the Mediterranean depressions and the small number of depressions that travel along the southern Mediterranean track,(Shehadeh, 1985) . In some parts of the country the “orographic effect” of the mountain boundaries is experienced. For example, areas south and east of to the mountains receive less rainfall due to the rain shadow effect.  \nFigure 1: Average annual rainfall distribution over Jordan,(Source: Hammouri  \nand El Naqa, 2007)  \nRainfall Variability in Jordan  \nThe rainy season in Jordan starts in September or October and lasts until April ","cbCaidlNfFtes04X","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidlNfFtes04X","pdf",319520,11,"English","# Introduction\n# Rainfall Variability in Jordan\n# Global Climatic Phenomena and Their Measurement\n# Predicting Rainfall Season in Jordan Using ENSO SST and SOI","[{\"question\":\"Why is predicting Jordan’s rainfall season important?\",\"answer\":\"Jordan has arid conditions with limited and highly variable rainfall, which restricts development and rain-fed farming. Predicting the October–May rainy season supports better planning for land and water resources.\"},{\"question\":\"What data and time period are used to study rainfall prediction?\",\"answer\":\"The study uses annual rainfall records from 24 rain gauges distributed across Jordan, covering 1960 to 2007.\"},{\"question\":\"Which climatic indices are used as predictors, and how are they applied?\",\"answer\":\"Two global climatic indices are used: ENSO SST (Sea Surface Temperature Index) and SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). Quarterly values of both indices are combined with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to generate predictions.\"}]","Predicting Rainfall Season in Jordan Using El Niño and La Niña Climatic Phenomena Indices | PDF",28]