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Prognosis is shaped by multiple factors, and age-related physiology increases postoperative complication risk. Using 11,283 DTC patients aged 60+ from the SEER database (2000–2020), cohorts were split for training and validation. Performance was evaluated with C-index, calibration, time-dependent AUC, and comparisons against TNM using DCA, NRI, and IDI.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":35,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/healthcare/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/personalized-prognosis-construction-and-validation-of-a-survival-prediction-model-for-older-postoperative-differentiated-thyroid-cancer-patients/362960/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/personalized-prognosis-construction-and-validation-of-a-survival-prediction-model-for-older-postoperative-differentiated-thyroid-cancer-patients/362960.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Aditya","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-27","2026-09-23",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":34},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the main goal of the study?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"To construct and validate a nomogram that predicts overall survival in older patients after surgery for differentiated thyroid cancer.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What data source and patient timeframe were used?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Patient data came from the SEER database, including 11,283 DTC patients aged 60 or older diagnosed between 2000 and 2020.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How was the model’s performance evaluated?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Model performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and time-dependent AUC, with robustness checked by K-fold cross-validation.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},362960,1790506854,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":34,"category_name":35,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":34,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145},962085564549,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45","Mu et al. BMC Geriatrics (2026) 26:468 BMC Geriatrics  \n[https://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-026-07178-3](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-026-07178-3)  \nRESEARCH Open Access  \nPersonalized prognosis: construction  and validation of a survival prediction model for older postoperative differentiated thyroid cancer patients  \nYunkai Mu1, Shunli Zhang1, Mi Huang1* and Guibo Feng1*  \nAbstract  \nBackground The prognosis of older patients with postoperative differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is influenced by multiple factors. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in older DTC patients. Methods Data for 11,283 DTC patients aged 60 or older, diagnosed between 2000 and 2020, were extracted from the SEER database. Patients were randomly split into training and validation cohorts. Clinical variables associated with OS were selected using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression with cross-validation. Model performance was assessed with the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) . The nomogram’s clinical value was compared to theTNM staging system using decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) . K-fold cross-validation was applied to validate model robustness, and Kaplan–Meier analysis compared survival across risk groups.  \nResults Ten variables were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.763 in the training and 0.739 in the validation cohorts, with AUCs over 0.75. Calibration showed good prediction alignment. NRI and IDI values demonstrated the nomogram’s superiority overTNM staging (P \u003C 0. 05) . DCA suggested strong clinical applicability.  \nConclusions This nomogram provides a robust tool for assessing OS in older postoperative DTC patients. Further studies should refine models with updated prognostic factors.  \nKeywords Differentiated thyroid cancer, Prognosis, Nomogram, Risk stratification  \n*Correspondence: Mi Huang [704937468@qq.com](704937468@qq.com)[ ](704937468@qq.com)Guibo Feng [fgbcqmu@163.com](fgbcqmu@163.com)  \n1Department of General Medicine, The Affiliated Yongchuan Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, General Practice School of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 402160, China  \n© The Author(s) 2026. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit [http://creati](http://creati)[vecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/](vecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.)[.](vecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.)  \nIntroduction  \nThyroid cancer is one of the most prevalent malignancies of the endocrine system. It ranks seventh globally in cancer incidence, with over 821,000 new cases reported in 2022, yet has a mortality rate that ranks only 24th, reflecting an overall favorable prognosis [1]. Thyroid cancer predominantly affects adults, with a notably higher incidence in females and an increasing prevalence with age [2, 3]. Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) accounts for appr","cbCaipGeZUtbFEu3","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipGeZUtbFEu3","pdf",2657947,13,"English","# Background\n# Methods\n# Results\n# Conclusions\n# Introduction","[{\"question\":\"What is the main goal of the study?\",\"answer\":\"To construct and validate a nomogram that predicts overall survival in older patients after surgery for differentiated thyroid cancer.\"},{\"question\":\"What data source and patient timeframe were used?\",\"answer\":\"Patient data came from the SEER database, including 11,283 DTC patients aged 60 or older diagnosed between 2000 and 2020.\"},{\"question\":\"How was the model’s performance evaluated?\",\"answer\":\"Model performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and time-dependent AUC, with robustness checked by K-fold cross-validation.\"}]","Personalized prognosis - construction and validation of a survival prediction model for older postoperative differentiated thyroid cancer patients | PDF",1790149543,33]