[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-84848-en":3,"doc-seo-84848-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},84848,8796095462418,"Noah","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80000253c1241d02b47?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778826106357471780",8,"Research & Report","Perceived System Predictability Scale Development and Application","Perceived system predictability (PSP) addresses how predictable users perceive an interactive system to be, shaping interpretation, trust, and reliance, while HCI has lacked a precise construct and a validated instrument. The work grounds PSP in uncertainty theory, distinguishing epistemic, aleatory, and effective predictability. It introduces a theoretical framework, a validated 6-item PSP scale, and studies varying explanations and stochasticity, linking PSP to prediction correctness, trust, SIPA, and need for cognition.","arXiv :2607 .05674v 1 [ cs .HC] 6 Jul 2026  \nPerceived System Predictability: Scale Development and Application  \nHENDRIK SCHUFF, University of Stuttgart, Germany HEIKE ADEL, Hochschule der Medien, Germany NGOC THANG VU, University of Stuttgart, Germany  \nHow predictable users perceive an interactive system to be shapes how they interpret, trust, and rely on it, yet HCI lacks both a precise conceptualization and a validated instrument for this perception. We address this gap by introducing perceived system predictability (PSP) as a user-centered construct grounded in uncertainty theory, distinguishing epistemic, aleatory, and effective predictability. We contribute (i) a theoretical framework that situates PSP relative to adjacent constructs such as trust and understanding,(ii) a 6-item PSP scale, derived from a 60-item pool through expert review and cognitive interviews, and validated in a shape-classifier study (􀀣 = 200) that supports both a unidimensional and a three-factor hierarchical structure, and (iii) a sentiment-classifier study (􀀣 = 200) that varies explanations and stochasticity, and relates PSP to the correctness of users’ predictions of system behavior, trust, subjective information processing awareness, and need for cognition. We find that PSP and prediction correctness capture distinct aspects of users’ mental models and that both can diverge: PSP itself predicts correctness, explanations shift PSP but not correctness, and increased stochasticity degrades correctness without lowering PSP. PSP thus goes beyond existing objective and subjective measures and offers a principled foundation for designing transparent and trustworthy interactive systems.1  \nAdditional Key Words and Phrases: Scale Development, Validation, Questionnaire, Explainable AI, Human-AI Interaction  \n1 INTRODUCTION  \nInteraction between users and a system can be evaluated along a broad range of criteria. One common categorization divides these criteria into objective and subjective criteria. Objective criteria are measures such as the time a user spends interacting with a system or the number of successful task completions the user achieves. Subjective criteria typically refer to constructs that users perceive, such as usability, workload, or trust. Reliably measuring these requires the development and validation of appropriate scales. For example, well-known scales for usability include SUS [9] and UMUX [32, 33] .‚  \nWhile a large set of scales has been proposed in prior work, evaluating users’ interaction with today’s increasingly complex and opaque systems can only partially be addressed with existing tools and requires the exploration of novel constructs and the development of corresponding validated instruments to measure them.  \nIn this paper, we therefore focus on conceptualizing and measuring perceived system predictability (PSP) . In the following, we (i) argue why we need to measure PSP (Section 1.1),(ii) propose a theory of perceived system predictability comprising three facets (epistemic, aleatory, and effective predictability) (Section 3.1), (iii) develop a novel 6-item scale to measure PSP (Section 3.2),(iv) evaluate our scale (Section 3.3), (v) use our scale to explore the effects of explanationsand system stochasticity, and (vi) examine how PSP relates to prediction correctness, trust, subjective information processing awareness (SIPA), and participants’ need for cognition (NFC), among other constructs (Section 4) .  \nOur findings show that (a) our scale exhibits desirable psychometric properties,(b) PSP cannot be predicted from objective measures such as users’ prediction correctness but itself predicts prediction correctness,(c) enriching a system’s output with an explanation of why it produced that output affects PSP but not prediction correctness, and (d) the system’s level of randomness, in turn, does not affect PSP but does affect prediction correctness.  \n1[http://perceived-system-predictability.de](http://perceived-syst","cbCaihtkRvtjWEr9","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihtkRvtjWEr9","pdf",1419319,1,39,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## The Need to Measure Perceived System Predictability\n# Perceived System Predictability (PSP) Framework\n## Facets of Predictability\n# PSP Scale Development\n## Item Generation and Validation","[{\"question\":\"What is perceived system predictability (PSP) and why is it needed?\",\"answer\":\"PSP captures how predictable users perceive an interactive system to be. The paper argues existing objective and subjective measurement tools are insufficient, motivating a new validated instrument for PSP.\"},{\"question\":\"How is PSP conceptualized in the proposed framework?\",\"answer\":\"PSP is grounded in uncertainty theory and distinguishes three facets: epistemic, aleatory, and effective predictability.\"},{\"question\":\"How do explanations and system stochasticity affect PSP and prediction correctness?\",\"answer\":\"Enriching outputs with explanations shifts PSP but does not change prediction correctness, while increased stochasticity degrades prediction correctness without lowering PSP.\"}]",1784198787,98,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"perceived-system-predictability-scale-development-and-application","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/perceived-system-predictability-scale-development-and-application/84848/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-16",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is perceived system predictability (PSP) and why is it needed?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"PSP captures how predictable users perceive an interactive system to be. The paper argues existing objective and subjective measurement tools are insufficient, motivating a new validated instrument for PSP.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How is PSP conceptualized in the proposed framework?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"PSP is grounded in uncertainty theory and distinguishes three facets: epistemic, aleatory, and effective predictability.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How do explanations and system stochasticity affect PSP and prediction correctness?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Enriching outputs with explanations shifts PSP but does not change prediction correctness, while increased stochasticity degrades prediction correctness without lowering PSP.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]