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It addresses the status of potential overall agreements, the role of both FARC and ELN, and the implications of cease-fire arrangements and possible breakdowns. The work also evaluates power imbalances, human-rights and justice dilemmas, weapons and armed dissident risks, and political strategies shaping public confidence. Additional sections discuss Plan Colombia, victims’/justice provisions, extradition, and decision points in ongoing talks.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/peace-insider-colombia-peace-process-analysis-v31/139519/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/peace-insider-colombia-peace-process-analysis-v31/139519.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Jordan Avery","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-09-22","2026-08-24",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":39},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"Why did the analysis argue that an overall government-FARC agreement was uncertain by March 23, and what did it imply for 2016?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"It highlights the absence of an overall deal by the specified date and stresses that the process did not guarantee a successful outcome in 2016, leaving negotiations exposed to delays and unresolved conditions.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How does the document treat the role of the ELN compared with the FARC?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"It asks what would happen regarding Colombia’s second-largest guerrilla group, the ELN, and frames their position as a key variable that complicates the broader peace trajectory.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What justice and human-rights challenges are emphasized in the peace talks?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"The analysis focuses on human rights and the tension between impunity concerns and a balance between peace and justice in victims’/justice agreement provisions, including how these affect confidence in the process.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},139519,1787551661,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":39,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":129,"read_time":144},1099523882367,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_9964176cb1d06d4a9deccf72a44ae3dc","Peace Insider | Colombia Peace Process Analysis  \nContact [us at](us at editor@peaceinsider.com-)[ ](us at editor@peaceinsider.com-)[editor@peaceinsider.com](us at editor@peaceinsider.com-)[-](us at editor@peaceinsider.com-)[http://www.peaceinsider.com/](http://www.peaceinsider.com/)  \nTable of Contents  \nAbout the Author: .................................................................................................... 2  \nWhere Is the Colombian Peace Process Headed? Not So Fast….......................... 4  \nPreface .................................................................................................................... 4  \nIntroduction: Difficult Complexities Yet to Resolve, Despite Evidently Growing Optimism ................................................................................................................. 5  \n1) No Colombian Government-FARC Overall Peace Agreement by March 23 and No Guarantee for It in 2016 ..................................................................................... 8  \n2) What about Colombia’s Second-Largest Guerrilla Group, the “National Liberation Army” (ELN), in This? ........................................................................... 13  \n3) FARC Unilateral “Indefinite” Cease-Fire or Undeclared “Bilateral”Cease-Fire, and Eventual Declared Bilateral “Definitive” Cease-Fire ....................................... 15  \n4) Could Calls for a Military Solution Spike on Potential, New Frustrations over Prolonged Talks? What Is the Balance of Forces?................................................ 21  \n5) With the Colombian State’s Overwhelming Military Superiority, Why Even Have Peace Talks with the Guerrillas? ........................................................................... 25  \n6) What Would Happen with No Peace Talks?...................................................... 27  \n7) Plan Colombia and the Peace Talks ................................................................. 32  \n8) “Black-Op” Smart Bombs, FARC Decision-Making Structure............................ 34  \n9) Human Rights ................................................................................................... 35  \n10) Why Is the FARC Still in Arms? Its Roots, What Does It Want?...................... 39  \n11) What about FARC Weapons? What about the Colombian Armed Forces after an Overall Peace Accord Is Signed? ..................................................................... 44  \n12) Would There Be Armed Dissident or Splinter Groups Peeling Away from the FARC after an Overall Peace Accord? .................................................................. 47  \n13) Does the FARC See the Clock Winding Down on Pres. Santos a “Strategic Advantage”? .......................................................................................................... 51  \n14) Does the FARC want to run the clock out on Pres Santos and wait for the next president (who could be better or worse for the FARC)? ...................................... 53  \n15) What Can Be Done to Keep Up Confidence in the Peace Process Among Colombian Public Opinion?“Memo of Understanding” To End Conflict ................ 54  \n16) Some Things That Could Risk to Undercut Confidence in Peace Process ..... 56  \n17) Smoke-and-Mirrors Impunity or an Historic Brilliant Balance between Peace and Justice in Victims’/Justice Agreement? .......................................................... 57  \n18) Pres. Santos Ceding Too Much or Not? .......................................................... 65  \n19) Would Pres. Santos’ Cure Be Worse Than the Malady, or The Best, Simplest Way? The Question of Ratifying an Eventual Overall Peace Accord .................... 67  \n20) Former President/Now Senator Uribe’s Possible Next Moves? The Retired Military Voice, Political Parties............................................................................... 70  \n21) Other Questions about the Victims’/Justice Agreement ............","cbCaimKj15tZCbHf","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimKj15tZCbHf","pdf",2661712,88,"English","# About the Author\n# Where Is the Colombian Peace Process Headed? Not So Fast…\n# Preface\n# Introduction\n## No Overall Government-FARC Agreement by March 23\n## Role of ELN in the Peace Process\n## Cease-Fire Arrangements and Possible Cease-Fire Forms\n## Calls for a Military Solution and Balance of Forces\n## Why Hold Peace Talks Despite Military Superiority\n## Risks of No Peace Talks\n## Plan Colombia and the Peace Talks\n## Black-Op Smart Bombs and FARC Decision-Making","[{\"question\":\"Why did the analysis argue that an overall government-FARC agreement was uncertain by March 23, and what did it imply for 2016?\",\"answer\":\"It highlights the absence of an overall deal by the specified date and stresses that the process did not guarantee a successful outcome in 2016, leaving negotiations exposed to delays and unresolved conditions.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the document treat the role of the ELN compared with the FARC?\",\"answer\":\"It asks what would happen regarding Colombia’s second-largest guerrilla group, the ELN, and frames their position as a key variable that complicates the broader peace trajectory.\"},{\"question\":\"What justice and human-rights challenges are emphasized in the peace talks?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis focuses on human rights and the tension between impunity concerns and a balance between peace and justice in victims’/justice agreement provisions, including how these affect confidence in the process.\"}]","Peace Insider - Colombia Peace Process Analysis - V3.1 | PDF",222]