[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110131-en":3,"doc-seo-110131-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110131,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","Papua New Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis","Papua New Guinea remains at high risk of debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework, reflecting weak debt-carrying capacity. Despite planned fiscal consolidation to address vulnerabilities intensified by the COVID-19 shock, the assessment of both external and public debt distress stays high. The analysis indicates gradual consolidation, revenue strengthening, and structural reforms can mitigate risks from export and other shocks. Under implemented conservative financing and authorities’ plans, external and overall debt is judged sustainable.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Sanjaya Panth (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| PAPUA NEW GUINEA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nPapua New Guinea (PNG) remains at high risk of debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF) , with weak debt-carrying capacity.1 , 2 While the planned fiscal consolidation helps address debt vulnerabilities exacerbated by the global COVID-19 shock, the risk of both external and public debt distress continues to be assessed as high. Over the medium-term, public debt enters a downward trend and the projected temporary breaches of sustainability indicators can mostly be addressed by debt management operations as well as improvements in revenue generation. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that PNG is susceptible to export related and other shocks , underscoring downside risks to the debt outlook in a global environment of high uncertainty. To lower the risk of debt distress and ensure debt sustainability, gradual fiscal consolidation, including by boosting revenues, and steadfast structural reforms to promote private sector growth would be needed. Conditional on the implementation of the authorities’ plans for further fiscal consolidation and conservative financing strategies , PNG’s external and overall debt is judged as sustainable.  \n1 This Debt Sustainability Analysis has been prepared jointly by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in accordance with the revised Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries approved by the Executive Boards of the IMF and the International Development Association.  \n2 The Composite Indicator (CI) of 2.58 is based on the latest available CI information—October 2022 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for 2021 indicating a “weak”capacity to carry debt.  \n1. The coverage of public debt in the DSA is unchanged from the previous (May 2022) DSA  \n(Text Table 1) . The segments of the public sector captured in the DSA include the central government, state and local government, and guarantees to other entities in the public and private sector, including parts of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . However, debt numbers do not fully capture implicit government guaranteed debts of SOEs and unfunded superannuation liabilities relating to pensions.3 For the purposes of this DSA, the coverage of public sector debt remains unchanged from the last DSA, which was prepared in May 2022 in the context of the IMF 2022 Article IV Consultation and review of the Staff Monitored Program (SMP) . Given continued difficulties in capturing and assessing SOE risks, a contingent liabilities stress test is included in this DSA, assuming 9 percent of GDP as SOE debt is not captured in official public debt data (the stock of explicit government guarantees is around 1.3 percent of GDP) , and 3 percent of GDP for other elements of general government (mainly unfunded superannuation liabilities related to pensions , which are projected to be 2.1 percent of GDP in 2023) . Separately, according to the World Bank’s PPP database, the PPP capital stock in PNG is zero and, therefore, no default shock is triggered. A financial market shock of 5 percent is added, reflecting the average fiscal cost of financial crisis in lowincome countries. With these assumptions, the cumulative shock in the contingent liabilities stress test amounts to 17 percent of GDP—compared to 7 percent under default assumptions. Currency denomination is used to define external debt.  \n\n|  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | -","cbCaiku8gcoDh2wl","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiku8gcoDh2wl","pdf",829269,5,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Key Risk Ratings\n## External and overall debt distress assessment\n## Granularity and judgment application\n# Medium-Term Outlook and Mitigation Measures\n## Fiscal consolidation and revenue generation\n## Structural reforms and private sector growth\n# Assumptions and Stress Testing Framework\n## Coverage of public debt and limitations\n## Contingent liabilities stress test\n## Financial market and PPP shocks\n# Data Context and Supporting Background\n## Composite indicator and debt-carrying capacity","[{\"question\":\"How does the debt sustainability framework rate Papua New Guinea’s debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"Papua New Guinea is assessed as being at high risk of both external and overall debt distress under the LIC DSF, given weak debt-carrying capacity.\"},{\"question\":\"What actions are suggested to reduce the risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The document points to gradual fiscal consolidation (including boosting revenues) and steadfast structural reforms to promote private sector growth, supported by effective debt management.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the analysis include contingent liabilities stress testing?\",\"answer\":\"Because official public debt numbers do not fully capture implicit government-guaranteed SOE debts and unfunded pension-related superannuation liabilities, a contingent liabilities stress test assumes specific additional shares of GDP not captured in the official data.\"}]","Papua New Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis | PDF",1784484038,50,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis/110131/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"How does the debt sustainability framework rate Papua New Guinea’s debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"Papua New Guinea is assessed as being at high risk of both external and overall debt distress under the LIC DSF, given weak debt-carrying capacity.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"What actions are suggested to reduce the risk of debt distress?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"The document points to gradual fiscal consolidation (including boosting revenues) and steadfast structural reforms to promote private sector growth, supported by effective debt management.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Why does the analysis include contingent liabilities stress testing?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Because official public debt numbers do not fully capture implicit government-guaranteed SOE debts and unfunded pension-related superannuation liabilities, a contingent liabilities stress test assumes specific additional shares of GDP not captured in the official data.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,115,120,123,127,130,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":114},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]