[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109876-en":3,"doc-seo-109876-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109876,13056703019662,"Evangeline","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253a8e92610077?_k=1778726343310543188",8,"Research & Report","Papua New Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020","Joint World Bank and IMF debt sustainability analysis assesses Papua New Guinea’s debt distress risk under baseline and alternative scenarios. The external debt distress risk and overall risk are rated High, while granularity is deemed Sustainable and judgment is not applied. COVID-19 shocks reduce export prices and weaken demand, worsening fiscal and current account balances. Public debt is assessed sustainable with prudent fiscal policies, though debt service-to-revenue shows temporary threshold breaches.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nPAPUA NEW GUINEA  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability analysis  \nJune 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)1 2 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Jonathan D. Ostry and Johannes Wiegand (IMF)  \n\n| Papua New Guinea: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High3 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | GDP growth forecast reduced by 3.7 percentage points to-1.7 percent in 2020, and terms-of-trade shocks are incorporated. |\n| Financing strategy | Limited room to draw down reserves. Reliance on concessional loans from international community. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | High |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n\n1 This joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2020 request for emergency financing from the IMF Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) . The macro framework underlying this DSA has been updated from the 2019 Article IV staff report to reflect recent global and domestic developments. Both assessments on the overall risk and the risk of external debts have changed from moderate to high risk of distress as a result.  \n2 The debt coverage of this DSA is the same as in the most recent DSA (published on April 7, 2020) . It mainly includes the central government and local government debt. The debt figure does not fully capture implicit government guaranteed debts of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and unfunded superannuation liabilities relating to pensions.  \n3 PNG’s Composite Indicator score based on the October World Economic Outlook and 2019 CPIA measure indicates that the debt-carrying capacity is ‘medium’.  \nExternal and overall debt are at high risk of debt distress. The shocks from COVID-19 pandemic, including the terms-of-trade shocks to the main exports (for instance, LNG and metals) are expected to reduce the current account surplus and exacerbate fiscal deficits resulting in a higher debt path compared to the 2019 Article IV DSA. However, the public debt is assessed to be on a sustainable path, conditional on the implementation of prudent fiscal policies following the commitments ofthe staff-monitored program.  \nThe COVID-19 pandemic crisis is expected to heavily affect the prices of main exports, including LNG (-30.4%) and copper (-17%). Combined with weak external demands, the country is expected to experience a current account surplus reduction equivalent to 8.6 percent of GDP and larger fiscal deficits. The baseline scenario assumes that concessional loans from multilateral institutions and bilateral official creditors will help cover some of the health costs and financing needs triggered by the global health crisis. However, debt sustainability is subject to considerable downside risks, including from a more severe or prolonged impact of the COVID-19 shock.  \nThe present value (PV) of public debt-to-GDP ratio remains high at over 40 percent, as fiscal deficits continue over the medium term on top of the elevated level of outstanding local debt. The PV of public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio does not breach the threshold under the baseline scenario, but debt service-to-revenue ratio shows two short-lived breaches in 2020 and 2028, as bullet payments for private creditors and bond payments are due. The country is particularly vulnerable to export growth shocks under alternative scenario.  \nHowever, they are both projected to gradually decline as the forecast horizon advances. The PV of the public debt-to-GDP falls below 45 percent from 2024 and onwards. The first breach of the external debt service-to-reve","cbCaitu214kogt99","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaitu214kogt99","pdf",642415,4,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment and Ratings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n# Macroeconomic and Shock Assumptions\n## COVID-19 terms-of-trade and export price impacts\n## Financing strategy and reserve drawdown constraints\n# Debt Dynamics and Threshold Breaches\n## Public and external debt-to-GDP performance\n## Debt service-to-revenue and refinancing considerations\n# Scenario Evidence\n## Alternative scenarios indicators (2020-2030)","[{\"question\":\"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Papua New Guinea?\",\"answer\":\"Both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress are rated High in the analysis.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the COVID-19 shock affect Papua New Guinea’s debt outlook?\",\"answer\":\"COVID-19 is expected to reduce prices of key exports, weakening the current account and enlarging fiscal deficits, which increases the debt path versus the 2019 baseline.\"},{\"question\":\"Is Papua New Guinea’s public debt considered sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt is assessed to be on a sustainable path, conditional on implementing prudent fiscal policies under staff-monitored program commitments.\"}]","Papua New Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - June 2020 | PDF",1784482816,25,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-june-2020/109876/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What are the overall and external debt distress risk ratings for Papua New Guinea?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Both the external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress are rated High in the analysis.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How does the COVID-19 shock affect Papua New Guinea’s debt outlook?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"COVID-19 is expected to reduce prices of key exports, weakening the current account and enlarging fiscal deficits, which increases the debt path versus the 2019 baseline.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Is Papua New Guinea’s public debt considered sustainable?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Public debt is assessed to be on a sustainable path, conditional on implementing prudent fiscal policies under staff-monitored program commitments.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":134},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]