[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111199-en":3,"doc-seo-111199-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111199,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","Papua New Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Papua New Guinea remains at high risk of debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework, reflecting weak debt-carrying capacity and elevated external vulnerabilities. Liquidity risk is driven by a bullet payment on an existing Eurobond in 2028 and higher official bilateral and multilateral debt service in the early forecast period, alongside persistent breaches in the PV of overall debt to GDP. Medium-term debt is projected to decline if fiscal consolidation, revenue enhancement, and debt management address liquidity indicator breaches, while shocks from trade, contingent liabilities, and climate risks remain downside threats.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Lalita Moorty (IDA) and Thomas Helbling and Jarkko Turunen (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| PAPUA NEW GUINEA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nPapua New Guinea (PNG) remains at high risk of debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF), with weak debt-carrying capacity.1 ,2 External debt risks are elevated due to liquidity risk associated with the bullet payment on the existing Eurobond in 2028 and higher official bilateral and multilateral debt service payments in the first half of the forecast horizon. Domestic debt vulnerabilities are also elevated contributing to persistent breaches of the PV of overall debt to GDP ratio. The planned fiscal consolidation helps address debt vulnerabilities, while the risks of external and overall public debt distress are assessed as high. Over the medium-term, public debt would trend downward, while the breaches of liquidity indicators can be addressed by debt management operations and enhanced revenue generation. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that PNG is susceptible to trade-related and contingent liabilities shocks, as well as climate change, underscoring downside risks to the public debt outlook. Fiscal consolidation, structural reforms fostering private sector growth, and addressing climate risks would lower the risk of public debt distress and support sustainability. Conditional on the implementation  \n1 This DSA has been prepared jointly by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in accordance with the LICDSF, approved by the Executive Boards of the IMF and the International Development Association.  \n2 The Composite Indicator (CI) of 2.57 is based on the latest available information—April 2024 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for 2022 indicating a “weak” capacity to carry debt.  \nof the authorities’ planned fiscal consolidation and conservative financing strategies, public debt is assessed as sustainable.  \n1. The coverage of public debt in the DSA is unchanged from the previous (November 2023) DSA (Text Table 1) . The segments of the public sector captured in the DSA include the central government, state and local government, and guarantees to other entities in the public and private sector, including parts of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . However, debt numbers do not fully capture implicit government guaranteed debts of SOEs and unfunded superannuation liabilities relating to pensions.3 For the purposes of this DSA, the coverage of public sector debt remains unchanged from the last DSA, which was prepared in November 2023 in the context of the IMF ECF/EFF program first reviews. Given continued difficulties in capturing and assessing SOE risks, a contingent liabilities stress test is included in this DSA, assuming 9 percent of GDP as SOE debt is not captured in official public debt data (the stock of explicit government guarantees is around 1.3 percent of GDP), and 3 percent of GDP for other elements of general government (mainly unfunded superannuation liabilities related to pensions, which are projected to be 2.1 percent of GDP in 2023) . Separately, according to the World Bank’s PPP database, the PPP capital stock in PNG is zero and, therefore, no default shock is triggered. A financial market shock of 5 percent is added, reflecting the average fiscal cost of financial crisis in low-income countries. With these assumptions, the cumulative shock in the contingent liabilities stress test amounts to 17 percent of GDP—compared to 7 percent under default assumptions. Cur","cbCaien8WCd8sa0D","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaien8WCd8sa0D","pdf",668552,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Papua New Guinea: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis\n## Overall assessment and risk rating\n## Key drivers of external and domestic vulnerabilities\n## Mitigation measures and medium-term outlook\n## Contingent liabilities stress testing assumptions","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Papua New Guinea under the LIC-DSF?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as high, despite weak debt-carrying capacity under the framework.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors elevate external debt risks in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"External risks are elevated by liquidity pressures from a 2028 bullet payment on an existing Eurobond and higher official bilateral and multilateral debt service in the first half of the forecast horizon.\"},{\"question\":\"How can liquidity indicator breaches be addressed according to the DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Liquidity indicator breaches can be addressed through debt management operations and enhanced revenue generation, alongside planned fiscal consolidation.\"}]",1784489067,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111199/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Papua New Guinea under the LIC-DSF?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as high, despite weak debt-carrying capacity under the framework.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which factors elevate external debt risks in the analysis?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"External risks are elevated by liquidity pressures from a 2028 bullet payment on an existing Eurobond and higher official bilateral and multilateral debt service in the first half of the forecast horizon.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How can liquidity indicator breaches be addressed according to the DSA?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Liquidity indicator breaches can be addressed through debt management operations and enhanced revenue generation, alongside planned fiscal 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