[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110542-en":3,"doc-seo-110542-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110542,8796095461610,"Oliver","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Papua New Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment and outlook","Papua New Guinea remains at high risk of debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF) due to weak debt-carrying capacity. Despite planned fiscal consolidation mitigating vulnerabilities amplified by the COVID-19 shock, both external and public debt distress risks are still assessed as high. Over the medium term, public debt trends downward, and projected temporary breaches can largely be addressed through debt management and improved revenue. The analysis highlights PNG’s sensitivity to export and other shocks, requiring gradual fiscal consolidation, revenue strengthening, and structural reforms. External and overall debt are judged sustainable if authority plans and conservative financing are implemented.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nHassan Zaman and Marcello Estevão (IDA); and Sanjaya Panth (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .1 ,2  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| PAPUA NEW GUINEA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nPapua New Guinea (PNG) remains at high risk of debt distress under the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), with weak debt-carrying capacity. While the planned fiscal consolidation helps address debt vulnerabilities exacerbated by the global COVID-19 shock, the risk of both external and public debt distress continues to be assessed as high. Over the medium-term, public debt enters a downward trend and the projected temporary breaches of sustainability indicators can mostly be addressed by debt management operations as well as improvements in revenue generation. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that PNG is susceptible to exports and other shocks, signaling downside risks to the debt outlook in a global environment of high uncertainty. To lower the risk of debt distress and ensure debt sustainability, gradual fiscal consolidation, including boosting revenues, and steadfast structural reforms to promote private sector growth would be needed. Conditional on the implementation of the authorities plans for further fiscal consolidation and conservative financing strategies, PNG’s external and overall debt is judged as sustainable.  \n1 The Composite Indicator (CI) of 2.62 is based on the latest available CI information—April 2022 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for 2021, indicating a “weak” capacity to carry debt.  \n2 This Debt Sustainability Analysis has been prepared jointly by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in accordance with the revised Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries approved by the Executive Boards of the IMF and the International Development Association.  \n1. The coverage of public debt in the DSA is unchanged from the previous (December 2021) DSA (Text Table 1) . The segments of the public sector captured in the DSA include the central government, state and local government, and to some extent guarantees to other entities in the public and private sector, including parts of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . However, debt numbers do not fully capture implicit government guaranteed debts of SOEs and unfunded superannuation liabilities relating to pensions. For the purposes of this DSA, the coverage of public sector debt remains unchanged from the last DSA, which was prepared in December 2021 in the context of a request for an IMF Staff Monitored Program (SMP) . Given continued difficulties in capturing and assessing SOE risks, a contingent liabilities stress test is included in this DSA, assuming 9 percent of GDP as SOE debt is not captured in official public debt data, and 3 percent of GDP for other elements of general government (mainly unfunded superannuation liabilities related to pensions) . Separately, according to the World Bank’s PPP database, the PPP capital stock in PNG is zero and, therefore, no default shock is triggered. A financial market shock of 5 percent is added, reflecting the average fiscal cost of financial crisis in low-income countries. With these assumptions, the cumulative shock in the contingent liabilities stress test amounts to 17 percent of GDP—compared to 7 percent under default assumptions.  \n|  | Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and","cbCaiqhlr8fsIRXr","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqhlr8fsIRXr","pdf",622719,2,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings\n## External and overall debt distress risk\n## Granularity and application of judgment\n# Medium-term outlook and shock sensitivity\n## Fiscal consolidation effects\n## Temporary breaches and debt management\n# Contingent liabilities and coverage of public debt\n## Implicit SOE and pension-related liabilities\n## Assumptions and stress test shocks\n# Debt composition and recent changes\n## Public debt stock increase (2017–2021)\n## Creditor shifts and pandemic impacts\n## DSSI participation and debt service costs","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Papua New Guinea under the LIC DSF?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is high, including high risk for both external and public debt distress. This reflects weak debt-carrying capacity even with planned fiscal consolidation.\"},{\"question\":\"How will projected sustainability-indicator breaches be addressed over the medium term?\",\"answer\":\"Projected temporary breaches can mostly be addressed through debt management operations and improvements in revenue generation. The analysis also expects public debt to enter a downward trend over the medium term.\"},{\"question\":\"What role do contingent liabilities and SOE risks play in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA includes a contingent liabilities stress test because official public debt data do not fully capture implicit government-guaranteed SOE debts and unfunded superannuation liabilities linked to pensions. Assumptions of SOE debt not captured and other general government elements are used to estimate the cumulative shock.\"}]","Papua New Guinea - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment and outlook | PDF",1784485913,48,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment-and-outlook","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,48,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/papua-new-guinea-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment-and-outlook/110542/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Papua New Guinea under the LIC DSF?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The overall risk of debt distress is high, including high risk for both external and public debt distress. This reflects weak debt-carrying capacity even with planned fiscal consolidation.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How will projected sustainability-indicator breaches be addressed over the medium term?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Projected temporary breaches can mostly be addressed through debt management operations and improvements in revenue generation. The analysis also expects public debt to enter a downward trend over the medium term.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What role do contingent liabilities and SOE risks play in the analysis?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The DSA includes a contingent liabilities stress test because official public debt data do not fully capture implicit government-guaranteed SOE debts and unfunded superannuation liabilities linked to pensions. Assumptions of SOE debt not captured and other general government elements are used to estimate the cumulative shock.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},"General","general"]