[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108484-en":3,"doc-seo-108484-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},108484,5909877438554,"Maeve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/5600025385ad2bf12a7?_k=1778553567797529272",8,"Research & Report","Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report - Annex 2 - Climate Macro Modeling for Pakistan: Methodology and Assumptions","Climate macro modeling methods address deep uncertainty in future climate events and limits of existing macro models that yield averages and lower-bound damage estimates. For the Pakistan CCDR, MFMod and E3ME are triangulated to better capture transmission channels and robustness of aggregate and sectoral impacts on growth, income, consumption, energy use and emissions. Distributional poverty and equity effects are assessed via microsimulation using national household survey data, while CPAT supports air-pollution impacts.","Public Disc losure Authorized  \nPAKISTAN COUNTRY CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT  \nAnnex 2  \nClimate Macro Modeling for Pakistan: Methodology and Assumptions  \nIntroduction  \nThere are deep uncertainties about future climate-related events and how best to model their transmission pathways. Due to high future uncertainty and the limitations of existing macro models, any economy wide assessment of climate change related damages will be incomplete, especially as  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nprojections include events that may occur decades out from today. Model results essentially show averages that, at best, represent a lower bound of climate damage estimates. Nevertheless, such models can help us identify key transmission channels that are especially relevant for Pakistan and help estimate their human and economic impact.  \nFor the Pakistan CCDR, this has been done with the help of two macroeconomic models, MFMod and E3ME, each of which provides a different lens on the potential size of aggregate and sectoral impacts due to underlying differences in the models. Triangulating between two models affords greater insight into the transmission of climate shocks and a better sense of the robustness of the results. The distributional impact of climate change on poverty and equity is evaluated using microsimulation techniques which use the outputsofthe macro models and datafrom national household surveys.  \nA brief description of the macro models  \nThe macro models, MFMod and E3ME, were used to conduct an economy-wide assessment of the impact of climate damage on growth, income, consumption, energy use and emissions. Table 2.1 provides a quick guide to the structure and assumptions underlying each model.  \nTable 2.1: A comparison of model structure MFMod and E3ME  \n\n| Category | MFMOD | E3ME |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Model category | macroecometric, structural, CGE | macroeconometric, structural, post-Keynesian |\n| Developed by | World Bank | Cambridge Econometrics |\n| Scope | PakMOD is an MFMOD version developed and calibrated for Pakistan for short-to-medium run projections | Medium run with structural adjustments across multiple sectors and products |\n| Input-output structure | Yes | Yes |\n| Prices | Yes, market clearing | Yes, cost-based pricing |\n| Foreign markets | Yes | Yes |\n| Public investment | Yes | Yes |\n| Private investment | Yes, driven by interest rates | Yes, driven by capacity utilization |\n| Technological change | Exogenous with recovery to trend | Endogenous |\n| Population | Yes | Yes, disaggregated by gender and age groups |\n\n\n| Category | MFMOD | E3ME |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Households | One sector | Households by income quintiles and occupation types |\n| Labor markets, employment, and income | Formal and informal | Employment by 43 economic sectors |\n| Unemployment | Yes, through market rigidities | Yes, through labor productivity and wage rates |\n| Firm sector | Agriculture, Industry, Services, Power, Energy | 23 sectors |\n| Power sector | 4 broad sectors: Hydro, Solar, Bioenergy, Wind | 12 power generation sectors |\n| Energy mix | Coal, Oil, Gas, Renewables | Coal, Oil, Gas, Renewables |\n| Emissions | Yes, aggregate | Yes, by 25 air emission sectors |\n\nMFModallocates workers to growing sectors based on their observable characteristics and calculates their new wages accordingly. The least employable workers are classified as un‐employed with zero wages. UN population projections are used to adjust for the future composition of the labor force. The model incorporates increases in remittances and allows for migration from rural to urban areas in line with historical urbanization trends. Based on revised income estimates, the model calculates per‐capita consumption in 2011 US dollars, adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) . In contrast, E3ME directly calculates sectoral employment and earnings, so it does not require a supplemental behavioral model to reallocate labor outcomes. It also provides estimates of r","cbCaisWFhx0OO8ZV","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisWFhx0OO8ZV","pdf",134997,6,1,4,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Two macroeconomic models: MFMod and E3ME\n## Model structure and key assumptions\n## Poverty, equity, and linked micro-simulation\n## Climate scenarios and pathways\n## Modeling climate extremes (Hot, Wet, Dry)","[{\"question\":\"Why do macro models produce incomplete climate-damage assessments for Pakistan?\",\"answer\":\"Future climate-related events remain highly uncertain, and existing macro models have limitations. Their outputs largely represent averages, which at best provide a lower bound of climate damage estimates.\"},{\"question\":\"How do MFMod and E3ME complement each other in the methodology?\",\"answer\":\"MFMod and E3ME use different modeling approaches, giving different lenses on aggregate and sectoral impacts. Triangulating between them improves insight into transmission channels and the robustness of results.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the impact on poverty and equity evaluated?\",\"answer\":\"Poverty and equity distributional impacts are assessed using microsimulation. The approach uses macro model outputs combined with national household survey data to estimate changes across climate futures.\"}]","Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report - Annex 2 - Climate Macro Modeling for Pakistan: Methodology and Assumptions | PDF",1784471534,10,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"pakistan-country-climate-and-development-report-annex-2-climate-macro-modeling-for-pakistan-methodology-and-assumptions","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/pakistan-country-climate-and-development-report-annex-2-climate-macro-modeling-for-pakistan-methodology-and-assumptions/108484/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"Why do macro models produce incomplete climate-damage assessments for Pakistan?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Future climate-related events remain highly uncertain, and existing macro models have limitations. Their outputs largely represent averages, which at best provide a lower bound of climate damage estimates.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How do MFMod and E3ME complement each other in the methodology?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"MFMod and E3ME use different modeling approaches, giving different lenses on aggregate and sectoral impacts. Triangulating between them improves insight into transmission channels and the robustness of results.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How is the impact on poverty and equity evaluated?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Poverty and equity distributional impacts are assessed using microsimulation. The approach uses macro model outputs combined with national household survey data to estimate changes across climate futures.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,115,120,123,128,131,134],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":30,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":133},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]