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This study provides the first long-term projections of cancer prevalence linked to NTRK gene fusions in Australia through 2044. Using Australian incidence and survival data sources and validated statistical methods, the analysis estimates one- to five-year prevalence by disease stage and timing, covering paediatric and adult combined groups and selected cancer sub-types relevant to TRK inhibitor subsidies.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/paediatric-and-adult-solid-tumours-exhibiting-ntrk-gene-fusions-in-australia-a-population-based-statistical-modelling-study/345533/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/paediatric-and-adult-solid-tumours-exhibiting-ntrk-gene-fusions-in-australia-a-population-based-statistical-modelling-study/345533.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Levi","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-09-24","2026-09-22",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":14},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the main purpose of the study on NTRK gene fusions in Australia?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"To generate the first long-term projections of cancer prevalence associated with NTRK gene fusions in Australia through 2044, supporting healthcare planning and budget forecasts.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Which data sources and period ranges are used for the projections?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"The study uses Australian Institute of Health and Welfare incidence and survival data (1982–2019) and NSW Enduring Cancer Data Linkage incidence and survival data (1982–2019).",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How do the projected prevalence trends differ between paediatric and adult solid cancers?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"For solid cancers overall, projected 2-year prevalence increases from 2019 to 2044, with paediatric cancers rising from 80 to 106 (+32.5%) and adult cancers rising from 645 to 970 (+50.4%).","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},345533,1790292988,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":14,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":41},7971461740909,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","Cancer Medicine  \nRESEARCH ARTICLE  OPEN ACCESS   \nPaediatric and Adult Solid Tumours Exhibiting NTRK Gene Fusions in Australia, 2020–2044: A Population-Based Statistical Modelling Study  \nQingwei Luo1 | Yoon-Jung Kang1,2 | Jeff Cuff3,4 | John Zalcberg5 | Karen Canfell2 | Julia Steinberg1  \n1The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, and Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia | 2Cancer Elimination Collaboration, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia | 3Research Advocate, the Daffodil Centre, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia | 4Faculty of Science Biotech and Biomolecular Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia | 5Department of Medical Oncology, Alfred Health and School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia  \nCorrespondence: Julia Steinberg ([julia.steinberg@sydney.edu.au](julia.steinberg@sydney.edu.au))  \nReceived: 25 November 2025 | Revised: 29 March 2026 | Accepted: 31 March 2026  \nKeywords: cancer prevalence | NTRK gene fusions | pan-tumour biomarker | statistical projections | TRK fusion cancer | TRK inhibitor  \nABSTRACT  \nBackground: TRK inhibitors targeting NTRK fusion-positive cancers have the potential to improve patient outcomes, but also have high costs. We report the first long-term projections of cancer prevalence associated with NTRK gene fusions in Australia, to 2044.  \nMethods: We analysed national Australian Institute of Health and Welfare incidence (1982–2019) and survival (1991–2019), NSW Enduring Cancer Data Linkage incidence (1982–2019) and survival data (1982–2019). We projected 1-year to 5-year cancer prevalence using validated statistical methods, for all stages combined, advanced disease at diagnosis (here, distant metastasis/ lymph node involvement), and advanced disease after progression post-diagnosis. We estimated prevalence for all paediatric cancers combined (age \u003C 18years at diagnosis), all adult solid cancers combined, 18 cancer types/groups, and 5 cancer sub-types relevant to current Australian government subsidies ofTRK inhibitors.  \nResults: For all solid cancers combined, we project increasing prevalence of individuals who were diagnosed with tumours exhibiting NTRK gene fusions, primarily due to population growth and ageing. For example, for 2-year prevalence (aligning with 2.5 years average treatment assumed in previous economic assessments for a TRK inhibitor subsidy), the projected increases from 2019 to 2044 are: all stages combined, paediatric cancers 80 to 106 (+ 32.5%), adult cancers 645 to 970 (+ 50.4%); advanced disease at diagnosis, paediatric cancers 19 to 23 (+ 21.1%), adult cancers 185 to 261 (+ 41.1%); advanced disease after progression post-diagnosis, paediatric cancers 22 to 30 (+ 36.4%), adult cancers 110 to 180 (+ 63.6%) .  \nConclusion: The results from this study can support healthcare planning and budget forecasts, including for different potential government treatment subsidy scenarios.  \n\n| Abbreviations: (ABS), Australian Bureau of Statistics; (AIHW), Australian Institute of Health and Welfare; (CNS), central nervous system; (MASC), mammary analogue secretory carcinoma of the salivary gland; (NSCLC), non-small cell lung cancer; (NSW), New South Wales; (NSWCR), NSW Cancer Registry; (NTRK), neurotrophic tyrosine receptor kinase; (PBAC), Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee; (PBS), pharmaceutical benefits scheme; (SBC), secretory breast carcinoma; (UI), uncertainty interval.\u003Cbr>Qingwei Luo and Yoon-Jung Kang should be considered joint first authors. |\n| --- |\n| This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.\u003Cbr>© 2026 The Author(s). Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |","cbCaicM3bRnRgHQC","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicM3bRnRgHQC","pdf",1445381,12,"English","# Abstract\n## Background\n## Methods\n## Results\n## Conclusion\n# Introduction\n## Precision medicine and TRK inhibitors\n## Rarity and prevalence patterns of NTRK fusions","[{\"question\":\"What is the main purpose of the study on NTRK gene fusions in Australia?\",\"answer\":\"To generate the first long-term projections of cancer prevalence associated with NTRK gene fusions in Australia through 2044, supporting healthcare planning and budget forecasts.\"},{\"question\":\"Which data sources and period ranges are used for the projections?\",\"answer\":\"The study uses Australian Institute of Health and Welfare incidence and survival data (1982–2019) and NSW Enduring Cancer Data Linkage incidence and survival data (1982–2019).\"},{\"question\":\"How do the projected prevalence trends differ between paediatric and adult solid cancers?\",\"answer\":\"For solid cancers overall, projected 2-year prevalence increases from 2019 to 2044, with paediatric cancers rising from 80 to 106 (+32.5%) and adult cancers rising from 645 to 970 (+50.4%).\"}]","Paediatric and Adult Solid Tumours Exhibiting NTRK Gene Fusions in Australia - A Population-Based Statistical Modelling Study | PDF",1790057999]