[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-113215-en":3,"doc-seo-113215-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},113215,137441390410,"Hazel","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984",8,"Research & Report","Oil Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria","The article asks when and why governments choose to monopolize violence and consolidate power. It develops three theoretical channels linking coercive power, shifts in power distributions, and large contingent spoils to conflict outcomes. Using international oil price shocks and a new dataset on Nigerian oil-producing local government areas, it shows that higher oil prices generate more-than-proportionate increases in government attacks on rebel groups in the oil region, consistent with the proposed mechanisms.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nThe World Bank Economic Review, 36(1), 2022, 171–197  \n[https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhab010](https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhab010)  \nArticle  \nOil Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria  \nArinze Nwokolo   \nAbstract  \nWhen and for what reason do governments choose to monopolize violence and consolidate power? Theory suggests three channels: when the government has coercive power against the opposition, if it shifts the distribution of power in its favor, and when contingent spoils are large. Using international oil price shocks and a novel dataset on oil-producing local government areas, this article examines how commodity prices affect civil conflict in Nigeria. Results show that a rise in oil price leads to a more than proportionate increase in government attacks on rebel groups in the oil region. The findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions: positive oil price shocks increase the monopoly of violence by the government through an increase in coercion, a rise in regaining territories from rebel groups, and an increase of violence in areas with large oil fields.  \nJEL classification: C23, D74, J30, L70, Q34  \nKeywords: oil price, natural resource, conflict, firms  \n1. Introduction  \nContention over natural resources, between government and armed rebel groups, is a recurrent theme in many civil conflicts.1 It remains unclear why governments choose to peacefully accommodate insurgents by buying them off or to consolidate power and monopolize violence by defeating them militarily. Theoretically, this puzzle is explained in three ways (Powell 2013) . First, the government consolidates power and weakens the opposition civilly whenever it has coercive power. This mechanism occurs when the incumbent seeks to consolidate its position by taking over the internal security forces andarming its militia while weakening the opposition by arresting, eliminating, or isolating its leaders. The  \nArinze Nwokolo (corresponding author) is an Assistant Professor at Lagos Business School, Pan-Atlantic University (formerly Pan-African University), Lagos, Nigeria; [his email address is anwokolo@lbs.edu.ng. The research for this article was financed](his email address is anwokolo@lbs.edu.ng. The research for this article was financed)[ ](his email address is anwokolo@lbs.edu.ng. The research for this article was financed)by Asociación de Amigos of University of Navarra, Spain. The author thanks the editor, the three anonymous referees, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, Pedro Vicente, Macartan Humphrey, Christopher Woodruff, Stefan Dercon, James Fenske, Alessandro Tarozzi, Ameet Morjaria, Pepita Miquel Florensa, Andrea Tesei, Javier Gardeazabal, Christos Kollias, Mirko Abbritti, Pedro Mendi, Gabriel Ulyssea and seminar participants at CSAE (Oxford), NOVA (Lisbon), and NCID (Navarra) for insightful comments and Chukwuebuka Amaji for expert research assistance. A supplementary online appendix is available with this article at the World Bank Economic Review website.  \n1 In the last six decades, no less than 40 percent of intra-state conflicts have been associated with natural resources (see, e.g., Lacina and Gleditsch 2005). Between 1997 and 2014, 320 of these events occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa (Raleigh et al. 2010) .  \n© The Author(s) 2021 . Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.  \nAll rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [journals.permissions@oup.com](journals.permissions@oup.com)  \nDownloaded from [https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/1/171/6291931](https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/1/171/6291931) by LEGVP Law Library user on 08 December 2023  \n172 Nwokolo  \nincumbent can also achieve this either by repressing the opposition or by reducing its access to state power or increase transfers today though it is unable to commit to future transfers. Second, the prese","cbCaibvkWxj6IGim","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibvkWxj6IGim","pdf",3150427,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Research question and theoretical channels\n## Data and identification strategy\n## Findings and mechanisms","[{\"question\":\"What theoretical channels explain government decisions to monopolize violence?\",\"answer\":\"The article proposes three channels: coercive power against opposition, shifts in the distribution of power in the government’s favor, and the presence of large contingent spoils.\"},{\"question\":\"How are international oil price shocks used in the study?\",\"answer\":\"Oil price shocks are treated as an exogenous driver, and the analysis links them to changes in civil conflict using conflict-event data and oil production across Nigerian local government areas.\"},{\"question\":\"What is the main empirical finding for Nigeria?\",\"answer\":\"An increase in oil prices leads to a more-than-proportionate rise in government attacks on 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